Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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9. Aircraft Emissions: Current Inventories and Future Scenarios

Executive Summary

9.1. Introduction

9.2. Factors Affecting Aircraft Emissions

     9.2.1. Demand for Air Travel

     9.2.2. Developments in Technology

9.3. Historical, Present-Day, and 2015 Forecast Emissions Inventories

    9.3.1. NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR Historical and Present-Day Emissions Inventories

    9.3.2. NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR 2015 Emissions Forecasts

    9.3.3. Other Emissions Inventories

    9.3.4. Comparisons of Present-Day and 2015 Forecast Emissions Inventories (NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR)

    9.3.5. Error Analysis and Assessment of Inventories

9.4. Long-Term Emissions Scenarios

    9.4.1. FESG 2050 Scenarios

    9.4.2. DTI 2050 Scenarios

    9.4.3. Environmental Defense Fund Long-Term Scenarios

    9.4.4. World Wide Fund for Nature Long-Term Scenario

    9.4.5. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Long-Term Scenarios

9.5. High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) Scenarios

    9.5.1. Description of Methods

    9.5.2. Description of Results

9.6. Evaluation and Assessment of Long-Term Subsonic Scenarios

    9.6.1. Difficulties in Constructing Long-Term Scenarios

    9.6.2. Structure and Assumptions

    9.6.3. Traffic Demand

    9.6.4. NOx Technology Projections

    9.6.5. Infrastructure and Fuel Availability Assumptions

    9.6.6. Plausibility Checks



Lead Authors: S.L. Baughcum, J.J. Begin, F. Franco, D.L. Greene, D.S. Lee, M.-L. McLaren, A.K. Mortlock, P.J. Newton, A. Schmitt, D.J. Sutkus, A. Vedantham, D.J. Wuebbles

Contributors: R.M. Gardner, L. Meisenheimer Review

Editor: O. Davidson

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