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Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Scenario, no adaptation and no irrigation water constraints

Water constraints are perceived as the most severe impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. Climate change will inevitably increase the number of areas needing irrigation, the water demand for crops, and consequently reduce water availability. Azerbaijan already struggles with a water deficit. In Armenia alone, the demand for irrigation water is expected to increase by about 202 million m3 by 2030 due to reductions in river flow and summer precipitation. This increase in demand, however, is expected to take place mostly in the Ararat valley. In the region of Shirak (altitudes between 1400–2200 m), the demand is expected to increase by 13.2 million m3. A reduction of 11 per cent in river flow is expected by 2030 as compared to average water flow for the period 1961–1990.12 A 10–23 per cent reduction in summer precipitation is expected by 2040 (MoNP 2015).

Year: 2015

From collection: Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Cartographer: GRID-Arendal/Manana Kurtubadze

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