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Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s in the South Caucasus

The changes in crop yields, however, vary between locations. For certain crops in the mountain regionsthe changes may, in some cases, be beneficial. When assessing the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation, Armenia’s intermediate (1001–1700 m.a.s.l) and mountainous (1701–2500 m.a.s.l) areas are likely to benefit from increasing yields in tomato, watermelon and wheat crops. Wheat, which is the country’s key crop, may experience an increase in yields of 38 per cent in the higher altitudes. While crop yields will likely decrease throughout Azerbaijan, pasture yields are expected to increase by 5–11 per cent with the highest increases expected to take place in areas with high rainfall. Pasture yields are also expected to increase in the western and eastern mountainous regions of Georgia by 44 and 87 per cent, respectively. The region that is likely to benefit the most is the eastern mountain region in Georgia, which may experience substantial yield increases in crops such as corn, tomato and wheat of 3, 23, and 17 per cent respectively. The rest of the Georgian territory, however, is expected to experience decreased yields (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014).

Year: 2015

From collection: Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Cartographer: GRID-Arendal/Manana Kurtubadze

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