Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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4. What are the Current and Future Impacts of Subsonic Aviation on Radiative Forcing and UV Radiation?

The summary of radiative effects resulting from aircraft engine emissions is given in Figures 2 and 3. As shown in Figure 2, the uncertainty associated with several of these effects is large.

4.1. Carbon Dioxide

Emissions of carbon dioxide by aircraft were 0.14 Gt C/year in 1992. This is about 2% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 1992 or about 13% of carbon dioxide emissions from all transportation sources. The range of scenarios considered here projects that aircraft emissions of carbon dioxide will continue to grow and by 2050 will be 0.23 to 1.45 Gt C/year. For the reference scenario (Fa1) this emission increases 3-fold by 2050 to 0.40 Gt C/year, or 3% of the projected total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions relative to the mid-range IPCC emission scenario (IS92a). For the range of scenarios, the range of increase in carbon dioxide emissions to 2050 would be 1.6 to 10 times the value in 1992.

Concentrations of and radiative forcing from carbon dioxide today are those resulting from emissions during the last 100 years or so. The carbon dioxide concentration attributable to aviation in the 1992 atmosphere is 1 ppmv, a little more than 1% of the total anthropogenic increase. This percentage is lower than the percentage for emissions (2%) because the emissions occurred only in the last 50 years. For the range of scenarios in Figure 1, the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to aircraft over the next 50 years is projected to increase to 5 to 13 ppmv. For the reference scenario (Fa1) this is 4% of that from all human activities assuming the mid-range IPCC scenario (IS92a).

4.2. Ozone

The NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft in 1992 are estimated to have increased ozone concentrations at cruise altitudes in northern mid-latitudes by up to 6%, compared to an atmosphere without aircraft emissions. This ozone increase is projected to rise to about 13% by 2050 in the reference scenario (Fa1). The impact on ozone concentrations in other regions of the world is substantially less. These increases will, on average, tend to warm the surface of the Earth.

Aircraft emissions of NOx are more effective at producing ozone in the upper troposphere than an equivalent amount of emission at the surface. Also increases in ozone in the upper troposphere are more effective at increasing radiative forcing than increases at lower altitudes. Due to these increases the calculated total ozone column in northern mid-latitudes is projected to grow by approximately 0.4 and 1.2% in 1992 and 2050, respectively. However, aircraft sulfur and water emissions in the

stratosphere tend to deplete ozone, partially offsetting the NOx-induced ozone increases. The degree to which this occurs is, as yet, not quantified. Therefore, the impact of subsonic aircraft emissions on stratospheric ozone requires further evaluation. The largest increases in ozone concentration due to aircraft emissions are calculated to occur near the tropopause where natural variability is high. Such changes are not apparent from observations at this time.

4.3. Methane

In addition to increasing tropospheric ozone concentrations, aircraft NOx emissions are expected to decrease the concentration of methane, which is also a greenhouse gas. These reductions in methane tend to cool the surface of the Earth. The methane concentration in 1992 is estimated here to be about 2% less than that in an atmosphere without aircraft.

This aircraft-induced reduction of methane concentration is much smaller than the observed overall 2.5-fold increase since pre-industrial times. Uncertainties in the sources and sinks of methane preclude testing the impact of aviation on methane concentrations with atmospheric observations. In the reference scenario (Fa1) methane would be about 5% less than that calculated for a 2050 atmosphere without aircraft.

Changes in tropospheric ozone are mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, while those of methane are global in extent so that, even though the global average radiative forcings are of similar magnitude and opposite in sign, the latitudinal structure of the forcing is different so that the net regional radiative effects do not cancel.