Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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Technical Summary: Figure TS-7

Figure TS-7: Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry in Figure TS-7a and from land-use change in Figure TS-7b - historical development from 1900 to 1990 and in 40 SRES scenarios from 1990 to 2100, shown as an index (1990 = 1). The range is large in the base year 1990, as indicated by an "error" bar, but is excluded from the indexed future emissions paths. The dashed time-paths depict individual SRES scenarios and the blue shaded area the range of scenarios from the literature (as documented in the SRES database). The median (50 th ), 5 th , and 95 th percentiles of the frequency distribution are shown. The statistics associated with the distribution of scenarios do not imply probability of occurrence (e.g., the frequency distribution of the scenarios in the literature may be influenced by the use of IS92a as a reference for many subsequent studies). The 40 SRES scenarios are classified into six groups (that result after A1C and A1G are combined into one fossil-intensive group A1FI, as in the SPM), which constitute four scenario families and three A1 scenario groups. Jointly the scenarios span most of the range of the scenarios in the literature. The emissions profiles are dynamic, ranging from continuous increases to those that curve through a maximum and then decline. The colored vertical bars indicate the range of the four SRES scenario families in 2100. Also shown as vertical bars on the right of Figure TS-7a are the ranges of emissions in 2100 of IS92 scenarios and of scenarios from the literature that apparently include additional climate initiatives (designated as "intervention" scenarios emissions range), those that do not ("non-intervention"), and those that cannot be assigned to either of these two categories ("non-classified"). 5 Three vertical bars in Figure TS-7b indicate the range of IS92 land-use emissions in 2025, 2050, and 2100.

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