IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Other reports in this collection

V.2. Data Collection

The main sources of data used in ESD were International Energy Workshop Polls (Manne and Schrattenholzer, 1995, 1996, 1997), Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-14 comparison studies) data, the previous database compiled for the IPCC Supplement Report, "Climate Change 1994" (Alcamo et al., 1995), which examined emission scenarios produced prior to 1994, and individual emission scenarios collected by the SRES writing team. The current database used in this report includes the results of a total of 416 scenarios from 171 sources. Most of these scenarios date after 1994.

Most of the total of 416 scenarios focus on energy-related CO2 emissions (256). Only three models estimated land-use related emissions - the ASF model, the IMAGE 2 model, and the AIM model. Very few scenarios considered global SO2 emissions.

The variables considered while collating scenario data, and the frequency with which such they are found in the 416 scenarios (and thus stored in the SRES database), are listed in Table V-2.


Table V-2: List of Data Categories in the 416 Scenario

Variable
No. of Scenarios
Variable
No. of Scenarios


CO2 emissions
372
Reduction in macro-economic consumption
29
Total primary energy consumption

243

Oil primary energy consumption
26
GDP or GNP
228
CH4 emissions
25
Electricity generation
164
Coal
29
CO2 concentration
161
Nuclear energy primary energy consumption
24
Temperature change
140
Biomass energy production
21
Coal consumption
107
Natural gas electricity generation
20
Oil consumption
101
Global mean temperature increase
20
Control costs
100
CO2 emissions from deforestation
19
Natural gas consumption
99
CO2 emissions in industrial sector
19
CH4 concentration
97
N2O emissions
19
Climate change costs
97
CH4 emissions from animal wastes
18
Carbon tax
96
CH4 emissions from biomass burning
18
Nuclear energy
93
CH4 emissions from domestic sewage
18
Coal production
93
CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation
18
Oil production
92
CH4 emissions from landfills
18
Renewables, electric
90
Coal primary energy consumption
18
Oil exports-imports
88
N2O emissions from biomass burning
18
Renewables, nonelectric
87
N2O emissions from land clearing
18
Natural gas production
86
Total electricity generation
16
Natural gas exports-imports
79
Other electricity generation
14
Coal exports-imports
78
Final energy consumption in industry
13
Crude oil price, international
77
Final energy consumption in residential and commercial
13
Coal/shale consumption
70
Final energy consumption in transport
13
Total primary energy production
66
NOx emissions
13
Sea level rise
63
Autonomous Energy Efficiency Index
13
Sulfur emissions
61
Biomass commercial production
13
Total fossil fuel consumption
61
Electricity generation primary energy consumption
13
Population
52
N2O concentration
13
Carbon intensity
33
CH4 emissions from agricultural waste burning
12
Natural gas primary energy consumption
32
CH4 emissions from deforestation
12
Energy intensity
31
CH4 emissions from energy production
12
Carbon permits
29
CH4 emissions from energy/industry
12
CO2 emissions fossil fuel
29
CH4 emissions from industry
12
Incremental value of carbon permit/carbon tax
29
CH4 emissions from nature
12
Natural gas
29
CH4 emissions from savanna burning
12
Oil
29
CH4 emissions from wet rice field
12




Figure V-1: Example of an extraction screen, showing the settings used to extract all information on all scenarios that are generated with the AIM Japan source model and to examine global sea level rise.

References

Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Grübler, T. Morita, and A. Sugandhy, 1995: An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. In: Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 233-304.

Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1995: International Energy Workshop January 1995 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1996, International Energy Workshop January 1996 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1997: International Energy Workshop, Part I: Overview of Poll Responses, Part II: Frequency Distributions, Part III: Individual Poll Responses, February, 1997, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Morita, T., and H.-C. Lee, 1998: Appendix to Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4), 121-131.



Other reports in this collection