The main sources of data used in ESD were International Energy Workshop Polls (Manne and Schrattenholzer, 1995, 1996, 1997), Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-14 comparison studies) data, the previous database compiled for the IPCC Supplement Report, "Climate Change 1994" (Alcamo et al., 1995), which examined emission scenarios produced prior to 1994, and individual emission scenarios collected by the SRES writing team. The current database used in this report includes the results of a total of 416 scenarios from 171 sources. Most of these scenarios date after 1994.
Most of the total of 416 scenarios focus on energy-related CO2 emissions (256). Only three models estimated land-use related emissions - the ASF model, the IMAGE 2 model, and the AIM model. Very few scenarios considered global SO2 emissions.
The variables considered while collating scenario data, and the frequency with
which such they are found in the 416 scenarios (and thus stored in the SRES
database), are listed in Table V-2.
Figure V-1: Example of an extraction screen, showing the settings used to extract all information on all scenarios that are generated with the AIM Japan source model and to examine global sea level rise. |
Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Gr�bler, T. Morita, and A. Sugandhy, 1995: An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. In: Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 233-304.
Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1995: International Energy Workshop January 1995 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1996, International Energy Workshop January 1996 Poll Edition. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Manne, A., and L. Schrattenholzer, 1997: International Energy Workshop, Part I: Overview of Poll Responses, Part II: Frequency Distributions, Part III: Individual Poll Responses, February, 1997, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Morita, T., and H.-C. Lee, 1998: Appendix to Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4), 121-131.
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