| Table B-1: Summary of transient
coupled AOGCM experiments used in this assessment. The scenario gives the
rate of increase of CO2 used; most experiments use 1%/yr, which
gives a doubling of CO2 after 70 years (IS92a gives a doubling
of equivalent CO2 after 95 years). The ratio of the transient
response at the time of doubled CO2 to the equilibrium (long-term)
response to doubling CO2 is given if known. |
|
| Center |
Expt
|
Reference
|
Flux Adjusted?
|
Scenario
|
Warming at Doubling �
|
Equilibrium Warming
|
Ratio (%) �
|
|
| BMRC |
a
|
Power et al. (1993), Colman et al. (1995)
|
No
|
1%/yr
|
1.35
|
2.1
|
63
|
| CCC |
b
|
G. Boer (pers. comm.)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
-
|
3.5
|
|
| COLA |
c
|
E. Schneider (pers. comm.)
|
No
|
1%/yr
|
2.0
|
-
|
|
| CSIRO |
d
|
Gordon and O�Farrell (1997)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
2.0
|
4.3
|
47
|
| GFDL |
e
|
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
|
Yes
|
0.25%/yr
|
2.6
|
3.7
|
|
| |
f
|
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
|
Yes
|
0.50%/yr
|
2.4
|
3.7
|
|
| |
g
|
Manabe et al. (1991, 1992)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
2.2
|
3.7
|
|
| |
h
|
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
|
Yes
|
2%/yr
|
1.8
|
3.7
|
|
| |
i
|
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
|
Yes
|
4%/yr
|
1.5
|
3.7
|
|
| |
j
|
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
-
|
-
|
|
| GISS |
k
|
Russell et al. (1995), Miller and Russell (1995)
|
No
|
1%/yr
|
1.4
|
-
|
|
| IAP |
l1
|
Keming et al. (1994)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
2.5
|
-
|
|
| MPI |
m2
|
Cubasch et al. (1992, 1994b), Hasselmann et al. (1993),
Santer et al. (1994)
|
Yes
|
IPCC90A
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
50
|
| |
n
|
Cubasch et al. (1992), Hasselmann et al. (1993), Santer
et al. (1994)
|
Yes
|
IPCC90D
|
na
|
2.6
|
|
| |
o
|
|
Yes
|
IPCC90A
|
1.5
|
-
|
|
| |
x3
|
Hasselmann et al. (1995)
|
Yes
|
IPCC90A
|
na
|
2.6
|
|
| |
y4
|
Hasselmann et al. (1995)
|
Yes
|
Aerosols
|
na
|
2.6
|
|
| MRI |
p
|
Tokioka et al. (1995)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
1.6
|
-
|
|
| NCAR |
q
|
Washington and Meehl (1989)
|
No
|
1%/yr*
|
2.3
|
4.0
|
58
|
| |
r5
|
Washington and Meehl (1993, 1996), Meehl and Washington
(1996)
|
No
|
1%/yr
|
3.8
|
4.6
|
83
|
| UKMO |
s
|
Murphy (1995a,b), Murphy and Mitchell (1995)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
1.7
|
2.7
|
64
|
| |
t6
|
Johns et al. (1997), Keen (1995)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
1.7
|
2.5
|
68
|
| |
w7
|
Johns et al. (1997), Tett et al. (1997), Mitchell et
al. (1995b), Mitchell and Johns (1997)
|
Yes
|
1%/yr
|
na
|
2.5
|
|
| |
z8
|
Johns et al. (1997), Tett et al. (1997), Mitchell et
al. (1995b), Mitchell and Johns (1997)
|
Yes
|
Aerosols
|
na
|
2.5
|
|
|
|
na = not available
� Numbers in italics indicate simulations with other than a 1%/yr increase
in CO2.
* 1%/yr of current CO2 concentrations.
1 Polar deep ocean quantities constrained.
2 Three additional 50-year runs, each from different initial conditions.
3 CO2 from IPCC scenario 90A after greenhouse gas forcing from 1880 to
1990.
4 As (1) with a representation of aerosol forcing, with increases after
1990 based on IS92a.
5 Equilibrium model excluded sea ice dynamics. Coupled model has warmer
than observed tropical sea surface temperatures and a vigorous ice albedo
feedback (Washington and Meehl, 1996) contributing to the high sensitivity.
6 Average of three experiments from different initial conditions.
7 CO2 increased by 1%/yr from 1990. Observed greenhouse gas forcing used
from 1860 to 1990.
8 As (7) with a representation of aerosol forcing, with increases of aerosol
and greenhouse gases after 1990 based on IS92a.
|
