The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

(continued...)

The Global Vulnerability Analysis (GVA) was a first-order analysis that combined available global data sets with a number of assumptions to provide regional and global perspectives on vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise for a limited number of parameters (Hoozemans et al., 1993). GVA results are consistent with a number of national studies (Nicholls, 1995); the following results for Europe can be derived. In 1990, more than 30 million people were estimated to live below the 1,000-year storm surge level. These people generally are protected from flooding by structural measures and the low incidence of flooding. A 1-m rise in sea level relative to the 1990 conditions would increase the population living below the 1,000-year storm surge level by about 30%, to 40 million people. The incidence of flooding will depend on human response: Proactive measures that anticipate the rise in sea level will maintain a low incidence of flooding.

Europe is estimated to have at least 2,860 km² of salt marshes and 6,690 km² of other unvegetated intertidal habitat (these estimates exclude the former Soviet Union). Based on coastal morphological type, the GVA estimates that coastal wetlands will decline given a 1-m rise in sea level, with 45% of salt marshes and 35% of other intertidal areas lost. Considering coastal squeeze increases the losses to 62% and 41%, respectively. The characteristics of the surviving salt marsh and intertidal areas may be greatly altered compared with current conditions. The northern Mediterranean is most vulnerable to such losses; the Baltic Sea is most vulnerable to coastal squeeze. Such losses could have serious consequences for biodiversity in Europe, particularly for bird populations.

Table 5-4 presents what is known to date from national studies in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC 1996, WG II, Chapter 9) and U.S. Country Studies Program (Lenhart et al., 1996) on European countries, supplemented by a national study of Germany (Sterr and Simmmering, 1996; Ebenhoe et al., 1997). A regional study of East Anglia in the United Kingdom also is available (Turner et al., 1995). Although the results vary from country to country, they all emphasize the large human and ecological values that could be impacted by sea-level rise. Other values that may be impacted include cultural and archeological resources at the coast (Fulford et al., 1997). Historic cities, such as Venice, might be included in this category.

Table 5-4: Social and economic impacts of sea-level rise in The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia, and Ukraine.

		People Affected		Capital Value at Loss		Land at Loss			Adaptation/ Protection
Country GNP	Sea-Level Rise (m)	# People (1000s)	% Total	Million US$ (1)	% GNP	km (2)	% Total	Wetland at Loss km²	Million US$ (1)	%

Netherlands (2)	1.0	10,000	67	186,000	69	2,165	5.9	642	12,300	0.05
Germany (3)	1.0	3,200	4	7,500	0.05	13,900	3.9	2,000	23,500	0.2
Poland (2)	1.0	240	1	22,000	24	1,700	0.5	36	1,400	0.02
Poland (4)	0.1	40	0.2	10,000	11	845	0.2	n.a.	2,300+10	0.03
Poland (4)	2.5	235	1	75,000	82	2,203	0.6	n.a.	9,800+500	0.15
Estonia (5)	1.0	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	60	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Ukraine (6)	0.5	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	32	n.a.	n.a.
Ukraine (6)	2.0	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	370	n.a.	n.a.

(1) All costs have been adjusted to 1990 US$. (2) Source: IPCC 1996, WG II, Chapter 9. Results are for existing development. People affected, capital loss, land loss, and wetland loss assume no human response, whereas adaptation assumes protection except in areas with low population density. (3) Sources: Sterr and Simmering, 1996; Ebenhoch et al., 1997. (4) Source: U.S. Country Studies Program. Adaptation costs are full protection plus yearly maintenance. See also Zeidler, 1997. (5) Source: Kont et al., 1997; estimates for two sites only. (6) Estimates for wetland loss along Black Sea coastline only.

Other reports in this collection