Work on integrated assessment of climate change in the Africa region is in its infancy. Several different approaches are being applied in country studies and primary research. These approaches include assessments of illustrative case examples related to ecosystems, water supply/basin management, and socioeconomic activities such as agriculture. These case studies begin to integrate, for specific subregions (such as watersheds or agricultural production areas), the impacts of climate change with the potential impacts of other factors such as land-use change, demographic change, land degradation, air and water pollution, and economic and social change (including factors such as changing resource demands resulting from economic development and technological change).
The use of integrated assessment models has not been widespread in the African context, although it is becoming an item on the agenda of several modeling groups and organizations. More widespread use of integrated assessment models is a priority for the IPCC in the Third Assessment Report, although it will require fundamental advances in the research literature. As a basis for integration, primary research on impacts on the potentially most vulnerable sectors and regions must be conducted so that interactions among the many potential costs and benefits can be assessed and, where possible, quantified.
One of the first and most pressing scientific steps to address the shortage of data on African climate is the maintenance and (if possible) enhancement of the surface climate observing network. The network is important because, for the detection of long-term climate change, stable and continuous observing sites are necessary. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has a program to designate and maintain key sites as Reference Climate Stations. This program needs additional recognition and funding. The observing network also will help in the calibration of new satellite-based methods of observing the climate (WMO, 1992).
There is a continual need to evaluate the results of GCM experiments that simulate greenhouse gas- and aerosol-induced climate change to identify the likely subregional response within Africa to projected global-mean warming. This research should be seen as only one part of the much larger effort underway worldwide to narrow the uncertainties surrounding predictions of greenhouse gas-induced climate change. Determining whether recent desiccation in the Sahel is associated in some way with global air pollution also is of great importance (Hastenrath, 1995; Ringius et al., 1996).
In addition to conducting more comprehensive assessments of the sensitivity and vulnerability of key resource sectors and systems, there is an urgent need to begin to apply existing and developing techniques for integration of potential climate change impacts on several dimensions, as suggested in the introduction to this report. These dimensions include:
In light of the large number and magnitude of socioeconomic and environmental
changes projected for Africa, developing integrated assessments of climate change
is an urgent priority for the region.
As this information on sectoral vulnerabilities and integrated assessment of potential climate change impacts is developed, it must penetrate more fully into national government organizations and international donor agencies. This penetration is necessary to ensure that what is known about past and present climate variability is properly taken into account in developing national economic and environmental plans (Sadowski et al., 1996). Such sensitization of the policymaking process to climate variability also ensures that as knowledge about future climate change improves, it too can be sensibly used to guide drought/climate-related economic policy (OECD, 1996).
Within Africa, priority areas for environmental policy include securing sustainable water supply and quality; preventing and reversing desertification; combating coastal erosion and pollution; ensuring sustainable industrial development; making efficient use of energy resources; maintaining forests and wildlife resources; managing demographic change; and ensuring adequate food security. These priority areas highlight environmental and developmental concerns in the region that require immediate attention from the research and policy communities (Hulme, 1996a).
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