The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

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2.3.3.2. Food and Fiber Production

Agriculture constitutes a large share of African economies, with a mixture of subsistence and commercial production. Forestry is an important complement to agriculture in many rural areas, but managed forests are less significant. Fisheries are important in coastal areas and islands but a small component of the African economy as a whole. African agriculture is sensitive to present climatic variations. The effects of climate change are uncertain, but adverse impacts are likely in many regions. The future of African agriculture and food security depends on the outcome of climate change in Africa, indigenous responses to global change, development efforts in the next few decades, and global patterns of commodity production and demand (which also are affected by climate change and policy responses to global change).

2.3.3.2.1. Present agriculture

African economies are highly dependent on agriculture: Arable land and permanent pasture occupy one-third of the land area of Africa. Agriculture constitutes approximately 30% of GDP (see Table 2-7 and Annex D). Almost three-fourths of the African population resides in rural areas, and almost all of the rural labor force is engaged in agriculture (including livestock, forestry, and fisheries). However, much of the land is of poor quality; less than 10% of Africa is actively cultivated. Annual food production over the past few decades has grown by 2.8% per year for cereals, 2.9% for legumes, and 4.0% for roots and tubers, although the total cultivated area has grown by only 0.6%. Although population densities are relatively low compared with global averages, some rural areas are very densely populated, and population growth rates have yet to reach stability levels.

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