IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6147 7009 7880 8640 9304 9874 10216 10453 10585 10501 10418
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 36.3 47.4 62.1 80.3 102.0 127.9 156.0 186.3 219.2 255.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 55 67 79 90 97 103 85 75 73 73 72
Liquids 121 121 127 140 138 156 192 228 264 300 327 355
Gas 52 60 73 91 101 107 109 118 132 152 157 162
Electricity 35 51 73 102 137 181 234 292 352 413 470 527
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 253 286 339 411 465 541 637 723 823 937 1027 1117
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 110 128 143 176 201 218 191 175 170 169 167
Oil 131 130 134 145 134 147 185 228 270 309 338 367
Gas 70 81 111 159 186 209 229 260 292 325 330 335
Nuclear 24 24 28 34 46 62 82 93 105 120 150 181
Biomass 0 5 10 15 19 24 28 38 43 45 44 43
Other Renewables 24 24 32 47 65 88 116 155 195 234 255 275
Total 336 375 443 542 626 731 858 965 1080 1203 1286 1370
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.3 11.2 13.1 14.8 16.5 18.2
Oil 0.1 1.4 2.8 4.1 5.5 7.0 8.6 10.8 13.3 16.1 19.4 22.7
Gas 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.9 6.9 9.1 11.6 14.4 17.4 20.7 24.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 159.6 256.5 366.4 485.3 612.6 747.7 888.7 1033.7 1180.7 1328.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1473 1491 1526 1525 1493 1431 1295 1175 1070 988 906
Grasslands 3209 3347 3572 3885 4175 4393 4540 4391 4245 4101 4067 4033
Energy Biomass 0 2 4 6 6 7 8 22 25 16 10 4
Forest 4173 4214 4140 3952 3705 3547 3480 3818 4092 4304 4278 4252
Others 4310 4128 3956 3795 3753 3724 3706 3639 3628 3673 3821 3970
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.86 9.11 10.24 11.35 12.73 13.29 14.11 15.20 15.86 16.54
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.03 1.38 1.27 0.92 0.45 0.56 0.23 -0.53 -1.13 -1.72
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.88 10.48 11.51 12.27 13.18 13.85 14.34 14.67 14.73 14.82
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 350 391 430 469 498 499 509 528 548 569
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.1 10.4 11.9 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.3 16.7 18.1
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 76.6 80.6 85.2 87.1 86.4 71.9 59.0 47.7 41.1 34.6
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - B2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 907 958 993 1003 1024 1023 1013 1006 1002 1003 1004
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 24.5 28.5 29.5 33.2 36.3 38.4 40.9 43.7 47.4 51.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 8 7 6 6 6
Liquids 72 69 66 63 57 47 49 49 50 52 53 55
Gas 27 34 42 50 50 48 45 44 45 49 49 49
Electricity 22 26 31 36 38 44 50 52 54 56 59 63
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 141 151 160 156 149 154 153 156 163 168 173
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 43 40 31 32 35 37 33 30 29 28 27
Oil 76 73 69 64 56 42 44 44 45 47 49 51
Gas 34 43 59 79 79 76 73 72 72 75 74 73
Nuclear 20 15 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 16 20
Biomass 0 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Other Renewables 12 11 12 15 15 18 19 22 25 28 30 32
Total 182 188 194 203 197 187 190 189 191 197 201 206
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.1 97.3 131.2 163.1 193.4 223.1 251.9 279.4 305.5 330.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 412 417 423 419 399 375 339 309 286 261 236
Grasslands 796 820 861 918 942 1002 1025 998 974 955 945 935
Energy Biomass 0 2 3 3 3 4 4 8 8 6 3 1
Forest 921 931 922 894 878 847 850 926 980 1014 1016 1018
Others 998 958 920 885 881 871 868 853 851 862 897 932
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.28 3.26 3.16 2.98 3.02 2.90 2.86 2.88 2.90 2.91
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.19 0.17 0.07 0.00 0.03 -0.03 -0.21 -0.35 -0.49
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.39 3.45 3.33 3.05 3.02 2.94 2.82 2.68 2.55 2.42
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 82 92 95 106 114 120 128 138 148 158
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.2 7.0 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.3
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - B2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 425 427 435 438 438 435 429 423 418 412 407
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.0 8.3 9.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3
Liquids 18 12 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9
Gas 19 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 12 12
Electricity 6 8 10 14 15 17 19 20 22 25 27 29
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 56 44 39 42 42 41 41 41 43 47 50 52
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 16 15 20 22 22 16 13 12 10 9
Oil 20 13 10 9 6 4 5 6 8 9 9 10
Gas 26 20 19 23 23 22 19 19 20 21 21 20
Nuclear 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 9
Biomass 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2
Other Renewables 3 3 4 7 8 10 11 13 15 16 17 17
Total 70 57 54 61 64 66 66 63 63 67 67 68
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.8 28.5 38.0 47.5 56.5 64.9 72.9 80.0 86.2 91.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 295 308 324 330 326 313 277 245 217 203 189
Grasslands 395 410 448 511 572 615 640 592 553 520 529 539
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forest 1007 1016 996 945 885 850 841 935 1008 1060 1038 1017
Others 691 656 625 597 591 587 584 573 571 580 607 633
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.80 0.84 0.87 0.87 0.85 0.74 0.70 0.72 0.71 0.70
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.07 0.01 0.08 0.06 -0.06 -0.12 -0.18
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.84 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.85 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.59 0.52
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 46 60 69 76 81 80 81 84 87 91
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.2 9.6 10.5 11.0 11.1 8.8 6.7 5.0 4.1 3.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27
SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - B2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3261 3707 4127 4463 4739 4953 5037 5070 5052 4932 4814
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.0 10.3 17.5 25.9 35.6 46.6 58.4 71.0 84.5 99.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 30 42 55 64 69 72 59 52 50 50 50
Liquids 14 19 26 35 41 50 64 78 91 103 111 119
Gas 2 5 9 13 17 19 22 25 30 35 35 36
Electricity 4 11 22 37 55 77 102 131 160 189 215 241
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 66 99 140 176 216 260 293 332 377 411 445
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 44 64 86 104 116 121 103 92 88 88 87
Oil 16 21 28 37 39 48 62 80 95 109 117 126
Gas 3 9 19 35 48 62 75 90 103 114 114 114
Nuclear 1 4 8 12 20 29 40 45 51 57 71 84
Biomass 0 2 5 8 10 13 15 20 23 24 24 24
Other Renewables 3 4 7 12 21 33 48 67 86 105 114 123
Total 49 83 130 190 243 300 361 405 450 498 528 558
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.8 5.9 7.1
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.2 7.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.7 74.1 114.9 162.1 214.7 269.8 325.9 383.7 442.7 502.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 401 413 425 430 428 417 381 349 321 300 279
Grasslands 508 523 550 589 625 655 679 674 666 655 649 643
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 3 3 3 3 10 12 8 6 4
Forest 1168 1143 1104 1052 1010 981 965 1000 1039 1082 1110 1139
Others 664 632 603 577 572 568 566 555 554 562 588 614
Total 2729 2699 2671 2646 2639 2634 2630 2620 2619 2628 2653 2678
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.55 3.48 4.18 4.82 5.39 5.45 5.64 5.96 6.11 6.26
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.10 0.09 0.03 -0.08 -0.19 -0.29
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.74 3.73 4.43 5.02 5.49 5.54 5.67 5.88 5.92 5.96
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 133 142 154 163 171 164 160 160 163 167
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.8
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 35.9 45.6 48.5 48.2 44.7 34.6 26.2 19.4 16.0 12.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 21 40 66 95 130 164 199 233 267 302
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 14 22 30 38 46 51 54 54 53 51
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 18 25 32 36 36 33 27 29 30
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - B2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1554 1917 2326 2725 3104 3463 3737 3953 4113 4153 4192
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.4 6.8 11.8 18.4 26.8 38.5 51.1 64.6 78.9 94.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 6 9 12 15 14 14 14 14 14
Liquids 17 21 27 34 40 52 73 94 116 138 155 173
Gas 5 7 10 14 21 27 31 38 46 56 61 65
Electricity 3 6 9 15 27 43 63 89 116 143 169 195
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 36 50 69 97 134 182 235 292 351 399 448
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 8 11 19 28 37 39 40 42 43 45
Oil 20 23 28 35 40 53 75 98 122 145 163 181
Gas 7 9 14 22 36 50 62 80 98 115 122 129
Nuclear 0 2 4 5 9 16 23 29 36 43 55 68
Biomass 0 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 13 13 13
Other Renewables 5 6 9 13 20 28 37 53 68 84 94 103
Total 35 46 64 88 128 179 241 309 376 441 490 538
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.0
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.6 7.2 8.8
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.4 5.6 6.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.1 56.5 82.4 112.6 148.0 189.8 238.0 290.7 346.3 404.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 365 353 355 351 341 326 299 272 246 224 202
Grasslands 1510 1594 1713 1867 2012 2121 2197 2127 2052 1970 1943 1916
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 2 1 -1
Forest 3641 3589 3487 3334 3190 3085 3018 3114 3218 3330 3379 3428
Others 1957 1882 1808 1735 1714 1698 1688 1658 1651 1669 1730 1791
Total 7499 7430 7361 7291 7266 7246 7229 7201 7197 7217 7276 7336
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.22 1.53 2.03 2.68 3.47 4.19 4.92 5.64 6.14 6.67
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.69 0.85 0.75 0.58 0.34 0.35 0.17 -0.18 -0.47 -0.76
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.91 2.38 2.78 3.26 3.82 4.54 5.09 5.46 5.67 5.91
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 89 97 112 123 131 135 140 146 149 153
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.7
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.2 15.3 16.9 19.3 22.6 21.0 18.7 15.8 13.2 10.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN