IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6091 6851 7612 8372 8855 9367 9638 9917 10129 10271 10414
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 28.2 36.4 48.4 66.9 86.3 111.2 133.7 160.7 186.9 210.5 237.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 38 34 30 26 18 13 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 43 54 66 77 82 88 84 80 76 72 69
Liquids 111 118 132 146 168 191 217 225 234 241 246 251
Gas 51 54 74 97 123 148 179 193 209 221 228 236
Electricity 38 50 65 81 105 135 175 215 266 311 344 381
Others
Total 285 304 359 420 499 578 671 730 795 850 892 936
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 105 141 180 214 242 278 272 268 262 254 247
Oil 143 160 175 185 188 178 173 154 139 126 113 102
Gas 73 93 123 153 187 226 277 297 320 337 344 352
Nuclear 6 9 13 19 29 35 46 53 63 72 79 88
Biomass 50 48 38 38 53 79 120 144 173 198 215 233
Other Renewables 10 11 13 16 22 32 48 79 132 186 222 264
Total 376 427 502 590 693 793 941 1000 1095 1181 1227 1285
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.9 5.9 8.0 10.8 13.1 15.9 18.7 21.2 24.0
Oil 0.1 1.6 3.3 5.1 7.0 8.6 10.6 12.0 13.5 14.9 16.1 17.3
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.1 7.0 9.7 12.2 15.4 18.8 22.0 25.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 162.3 261.8 373.7 500.0 642.7 794.1 944.4 1093.2 1239.1 1381.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1459 1481 1510 1540 1570 1598 1626 1656 1686 1718 1751 1784
Grasslands 3389 3409 3436 3454 3473 3508 3543 3577 3610 3641 3668 3696
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 14 92 163 288 312 337 341 324 307
Forest 4296 4252 4225 4251 4292 4322 4353 4380 4407 4441 4481 4522
Others 3805 3806 3778 3690 3522 3325 3139 3019 2904 2805 2721 2639
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.51 10.21 11.83 13.24 14.96 14.82 14.75 14.56 14.24 13.93
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.92 0.26 0.07 0.12 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.10
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.43 10.47 11.90 13.36 15.20 15.07 15.01 14.76 14.41 14.04
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 358 391 429 453 482 485 489 485 475 465
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 78.3 77.6 69.8 51.9 44.2 38.4 34.2 32.8 33.3 33.8
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
CO MtCO 879 877 953 941 1002 1086 1180 1224 1272 1332 1407 1487
NMVOC Mt 139 141 161 179 186 191 197 181 167 153 141 130
NOx  MtN 31 32 35 38 39 40 42 40 38 37 36 34
OECD90 - B2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 916 942 968 994 985 976 964 952 943 935 928
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 21.1 24.5 28.3 32.8 35.3 37.9 41.0 44.3 48.0 52.1 56.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
Liquids 64 71 70 71 72 70 67 62 58 55 54 52
Gas 25 30 36 41 45 46 47 45 44 43 43 43
Electricity 22 27 31 34 38 40 43 48 53 59 63 68
Others
Total 127 141 148 157 166 166 166 164 163 163 165 168
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 39 44 46 46 48 49 43 38 34 32 30
Oil 76 88 84 82 73 58 47 38 31 27 25 24
Gas 34 48 55 59 62 64 66 63 60 58 58 57
Nuclear 5 7 8 11 13 12 11 11 12 13 14 15
Biomass 6 1 0 1 6 11 23 27 33 37 40 44
Other Renewables 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 20 29 37 42 49
Total 167 189 198 206 210 204 208 202 202 206 212 219
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1
Gas 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.6 95.9 129.3 162.0 194.0 223.7 249.8 273.1 294.4 314.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 381 384 391 398 406 411 417 423 429 435 442 449
Grasslands 760 764 770 773 776 787 798 811 826 838 849 860
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 2 17 31 54 59 63 64 61 58
Forest 1050 1059 1069 1082 1095 1104 1113 1124 1136 1151 1171 1190
Others 838 822 799 774 734 689 647 609 574 538 504 471
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.41 3.37 3.27 3.18 2.81 2.49 2.28 2.16 2.04
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.11 -0.14
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.30 3.36 3.31 3.24 3.16 2.78 2.45 2.21 2.05 1.90
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 67 64 59 54 52 51 49 48 47
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 10.3 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
CO MtCO 179 161 174 186 203 210 216 215 214 216 221 227
NMVOC Mt 42 36 34 32 29 25 21 15 10 7 6 6
NOx  MtN 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 5
REF - B2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 415 416 416 416 411 406 398 390 385 382 379
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.7 4.2 6.5 8.0 10.0 11.7 12.9 14.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2
Liquids 19 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9
Gas 19 13 18 22 25 30 36 36 37 37 35 34
Electricity 8 9 11 12 14 17 20 24 28 31 32 33
Others
Total 58 42 45 49 53 61 71 75 80 81 80 79
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 15 17 19 19 19 20 19 19 18 16 15
Oil 22 15 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Gas 26 22 28 31 33 38 44 44 44 43 41 39
Nuclear 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8
Biomass 2 4 0 0 2 4 8 9 11 12 14 15
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 9 14 19 21 23
Total 71 58 61 65 69 78 91 95 102 105 103 102
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.6 30.1 39.2 49.0 59.8 71.0 81.9 92.1 101.3 109.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 268 269 274 280 285 291 296 302 308 314 320 327
Grasslands 341 362 366 368 370 373 377 380 383 386 389 392
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 1 6 10 18 20 21 22 20 19
Forest 966 951 939 944 947 944 941 940 939 941 945 949
Others 701 693 697 683 668 656 644 634 624 613 601 589
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.01 1.05 1.06 1.11 1.17 1.13 1.09 1.02 0.91 0.82
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.12 -0.09 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07 -0.02 -0.02
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.01 0.89 0.94 1.02 1.14 1.10 1.08 0.95 0.89 0.80
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 47 48 47 48 48 44 40 36 32 28
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 11.7 9.7 6.9 3.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27
SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14
CO MtCO 69 41 40 40 42 45 48 50 51 53 55 57
NMVOC Mt 16 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1
ASIA - B2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3248 3603 3958 4312 4500 4696 4768 4842 4897 4932 4968
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 3.5 6.5 12.1 22.7 31.8 44.5 54.4 66.4 78.3 89.2 101.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 18 17 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 15 23 33 44 54 59 65 63 60 58 56 54
Liquids 11 17 27 37 51 62 74 76 79 81 82 83
Gas 2 4 8 17 31 41 55 62 71 79 85 91
Electricity 5 8 15 25 40 54 75 94 118 140 157 176
Others
Total 61 69 100 137 184 222 268 298 330 358 381 404
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 44 69 98 125 142 161 157 154 151 147 144
Oil 17 26 41 53 63 61 59 48 39 33 29 25
Gas 4 8 17 33 56 76 103 115 128 138 145 153
Nuclear 0 1 2 4 9 14 20 24 29 33 37 41
Biomass 28 24 19 15 11 17 27 33 39 45 48 53
Other Renewables 1 2 2 3 6 10 18 31 56 82 99 120
Total 80 104 150 206 269 319 388 408 444 481 506 536
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.1 5.8 7.1 8.7 10.3 11.8 13.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.6 6.0 7.4 9.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 43.5 79.1 125.8 183.7 251.9 325.8 399.9 474.0 547.7 620.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 438 439 448 457 466 475 484 494 503 514 524 535
Grasslands 608 607 611 615 618 623 627 631 636 640 644 647
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 21 37 65 70 76 77 73 69
Forest 535 525 518 533 548 553 558 563 567 571 575 580
Others 583 593 587 557 512 469 430 405 381 362 347 333
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.82 4.00 5.26 6.13 7.13 7.15 7.17 7.15 7.09 7.03
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.29 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.11 4.00 5.33 6.26 7.38 7.40 7.42 7.40 7.35 7.29
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 148 176 209 224 240 241 243 239 230 221
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 40.1 44.9 36.2 19.0 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 21 40 66 95 130 164 199 233 267 302
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 14 22 30 38 46 51 54 54 53 51
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 18 25 32 36 36 33 27 29 30
CO MtCO 235 270 332 356 412 455 503 521 538 563 594 627
NMVOC Mt 33 37 50 66 72 77 83 78 74 69 62 56
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 15 18 18 19 17 16 15 14 14
ALM - B2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1511 1891 2270 2649 2952 3289 3502 3729 3904 4020 4139
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.1 6.0 8.6 13.9 22.3 29.7 39.6 48.9 56.2 64.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 17 18 16 18 15 13 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 8
Liquids 17 20 25 29 36 49 66 75 86 95 100 106
Gas 4 7 12 17 22 30 42 49 56 62 65 68
Electricity 4 6 8 10 14 23 36 49 65 81 91 103
Others
Total 40 52 66 77 96 126 166 191 221 246 265 285
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 7 11 17 24 34 48 52 57 59 58 58
Oil 27 32 37 39 43 50 59 61 63 61 55 49
Gas 9 15 23 31 37 49 64 76 89 97 100 103
Nuclear 0 0 0 1 2 4 9 12 15 19 21 24
Biomass 14 18 19 22 35 47 63 76 91 104 112 122
Other Renewables 2 2 3 3 5 7 11 19 33 49 59 72
Total 57 75 94 113 145 191 254 295 348 388 406 428
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.3 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.8 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.3 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.6 56.7 79.4 105.2 137.0 173.5 212.8 254.1 295.7 336.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 371 389 397 405 413 421 429 437 446 455 464 474
Grasslands 1680 1676 1689 1699 1709 1725 1741 1754 1766 1777 1787 1797
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 7 48 85 151 163 176 179 170 161
Forest 1745 1717 1699 1692 1701 1721 1740 1752 1765 1777 1790 1803
Others 1684 1698 1695 1676 1608 1510 1419 1371 1325 1291 1268 1246
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.36 1.76 2.14 2.73 3.48 3.73 3.99 4.11 4.07 4.04
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.65 0.46 0.18 0.12 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.01 2.22 2.32 2.84 3.52 3.78 4.07 4.20 4.12 4.04
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 93 100 108 123 139 147 156 162 165 168
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.2 12.6 16.4 19.2 22.4 16.6 12.3 10.7 11.0 11.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14
CO MtCO 396 404 408 359 345 376 413 439 468 501 536 576
NMVOC Mt 48 55 64 69 72 77 81 77 73 68 64 60
NOx  MtN 7 8 9 9 10 12 14 15 16 16 15 15