IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6091 6891 7672 8372 8930 9367 9704 9960 10158 10306 10414
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 28.3 38.6 50.7 66.0 85.5 109.5 134.8 161.5 186.3 210.3 234.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 34.8 46.9 60.2 75.5 93.2 113.9 136.8 160.7 183.8 207.4 231.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 27 27 24 18 14 11 10 9 8 7 7
Solids 42 47 40 36 29 30 19 17 16 16 13 7
Liquids 111 134 167 200 236 255 268 273 267 270 289 294
Gas 41 46 50 59 70 86 105 119 130 130 118 111
Electricity 35 47 62 85 113 150 188 227 272 321 366 409
Others 8 11 17 25 41 51 63 78 90 104 116 123
Total 275 311 362 429 507 586 654 723 783 848 909 951
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 91 98 98 96 93 86 91 119 170 231 300
Oil 128 168 195 214 240 238 227 201 146 101 72 52
Gas 71 84 107 150 194 251 297 356 390 402 385 336
Nuclear 7 8 11 16 23 32 48 61 83 99 120 142
Biomass 46 43 46 53 61 79 105 136 184 236 280 315
Other Renewables 8 14 22 34 54 80 107 131 153 176 197 212
Total 352 408 479 566 667 773 869 976 1074 1184 1285 1357
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.7 6.5 7.4 8.6 10.3 12.6
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.2 9.6 12.0 14.3 16.3 17.7 18.7 19.5
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.1 8.6 11.6 15.1 19.0 23.1 26.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 159.1 248.3 343.0 446.0 554.5 667.0 782.5 901.4 1026.1 1156.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
Cropland 1459 1481 1510 1540 1570 1598 1626 1656 1687 1718 1751 1784
Grasslands 3389 3409 3436 3454 3473 3508 3543 3577 3611 3641 3668 3696
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 14 92 190 288 313 338 342 325 307
Forest 4296 4252 4225 4251 4292 4323 4353 4380 4407 4441 4482 4522
Others 3805 3806 3778 3690 3522 3330 3139 3023 2907 2807 2723 2639
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.99 9.02 10.15 10.93 11.23 11.74 11.87 12.46 13.20 13.82 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.80 0.03 -0.25 -0.24 -0.23 -0.24 -0.25 -0.31 -0.41 -0.50 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.78 9.05 9.90 10.69 11.01 11.49 11.62 12.15 12.79 13.32
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 349 384 426 466 504 522 544 566 579 597 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 65.9 61.3 60.3 59.0 55.7 53.8 50.9 50.0 49.0 47.9
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
CO MtCO 879 877 935 1022 1111 1220 1319 1423 1570 1742 1886 2002
NMVOC Mt 139 141 159 180 199 214 217 214 202 192 178 170
NOx  MtN 31 32 37 43 49 53 54 56 56 59 61 61
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data
OECD90 - B2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 916 953 982 994 988 976 965 951 941 934 928
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 21.1 26.5 30.3 33.1 35.8 38.3 40.9 44.4 47.9 52.0 56.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 18.3 23.0 26.3 28.8 31.3 33.5 35.9 39.2 42.4 46.1 50.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 71 79 86 92 88 76 68 64 60 60 58
Gas 22 24 26 25 27 31 35 38 34 29 24 17
Electricity 22 29 36 44 50 56 61 65 71 76 83 89
Others 1 1 2 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 17 18
Total 124 133 146 162 177 183 182 183 183 182 184 182
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 34 36 39 33 24 20 19 23 26 29 34
Oil 72 86 91 90 90 81 65 54 42 30 23 17
Gas 33 41 50 61 71 86 99 114 113 123 127 121
Nuclear 6 7 9 11 13 15 17 16 21 21 25 29
Biomass 6 7 6 7 8 9 12 15 22 28 31 33
Other Renewables 4 5 8 11 15 20 25 29 33 36 39 41
Total 159 180 200 219 230 234 236 248 253 265 273 274
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.3
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.4 6.6 7.8 9.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.5 99.1 135.5 170.8 204.1 236.1 267.0 297.0 326.8 356.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
Cropland 381 384 391 398 406 411 417 423 429 435 442 449
Grasslands 760 764 770 773 776 787 798 812 826 838 849 860
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 2 17 36 54 59 64 64 61 58
Forest 1050 1059 1069 1082 1095 1104 1113 1125 1136 1151 1171 1190
Others 838 822 799 774 734 691 647 611 575 540 506 471
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.50 3.71 3.70 3.51 3.26 3.25 3.08 3.10 3.14 3.10 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.08 -0.11 -0.15 -0.19 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.48 3.64 3.62 3.45 3.22 3.19 2.99 2.99 2.98 2.91
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 72 71 68 67 69 69 70 72 75 78 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 11.3 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
CO MtCO 179 161 163 173 180 187 185 185 195 213 207 197
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 39 42 45 43 41 38 36 33 30
NOx  MtN 13 12 13 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 11
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data
REF - B2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 415 417 418 416 411 406 396 389 384 381 379
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.6 8.6 10.5 11.9 13.2 14.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.3 4.3 5.6 7.2 9.5 11.6 13.3 14.8 16.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 14 17 17 17 19 19 18 18 19 20 22
Gas 14 14 12 15 18 19 19 18 16 15 12 10
Electricity 6 6 6 7 9 13 18 21 24 27 30 32
Others 7 6 6 7 10 11 12 14 15 16 16 15
Total 50 45 44 49 55 63 68 71 73 76 78 79
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 15 11 7 9 10 12 8 11 15 21 29
Oil 20 18 20 19 18 18 20 16 7 5 4 0
Gas 27 26 24 31 38 49 51 59 66 63 52 43
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 9
Biomass 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 6 10 13 16 22
Other Renewables 1 1 2 3 4 6 8 10 12 16 19 21
Total 70 62 57 62 73 86 97 102 111 117 119 125
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.5 26.7 33.8 42.9 54.0 65.7 77.4 89.4 101.2 112.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
Cropland 268 269 274 280 285 291 296 302 308 314 320 327
Grasslands 341 362 366 368 370 373 377 380 383 386 389 392
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 1 6 12 18 20 21 22 20 19
Forest 966 951 939 944 947 944 941 940 939 941 945 949
Others 701 693 697 683 668 656 644 634 624 613 601 589
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.80 0.81 0.94 1.11 1.24 1.18 1.22 1.24 1.21 1.18 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.18 -0.14 -0.09 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.79 0.63 0.80 1.02 1.20 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.17 1.14
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 36 40 45 50 53 50 47 47 46 47 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.1 3.5 1.6 1.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27
SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14
CO MtCO 69 41 43 48 59 69 74 73 68 72 70 79
NMVOC Mt 16 13 14 16 21 28 32 31 30 30 27 26
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data
ASIA - B2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3248 3649 4008 4312 4538 4696 4790 4856 4902 4938 4968
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 3.5 7.2 13.2 21.3 30.7 41.8 52.7 64.1 75.0 85.8 97.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 9.3 15.1 22.4 30.7 39.3 49.3 59.0 68.7 78.5 89.2 100.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 16 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 4
Solids 19 30 29 28 24 25 17 14 12 12 9 2
Liquids 13 26 41 60 81 96 112 117 109 107 114 122
Gas 2 3 5 9 13 18 22 30 38 37 34 33
Electricity 4 8 14 24 37 53 70 87 108 131 151 169
Others 1 3 7 10 16 20 25 31 35 43 51 55
Total 62 86 111 144 181 220 252 284 308 335 363 385
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 38 47 47 48 53 48 56 71 105 144 180
Oil 15 32 45 63 82 88 93 82 61 41 27 21
Gas 3 6 16 31 43 55 61 72 79 66 51 39
Nuclear 0 1 2 4 7 13 21 29 38 47 56 65
Biomass 24 22 25 28 32 41 54 68 88 109 123 129
Other Renewables 1 4 7 12 21 31 43 52 61 71 81 88
Total 74 103 141 185 233 281 319 359 397 439 482 521
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.3 6.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.2 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.3
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.1 68.5 100.2 137.4 177.8 219.4 261.8 305.7 353.4 406.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
Cropland 438 439 448 457 466 475 484 494 504 514 524 535
Grasslands 608 607 611 615 618 623 627 632 636 640 644 647
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 21 43 65 70 76 77 73 69
Forest 535 525 518 533 548 553 558 563 567 571 575 580
Others 583 593 587 557 512 471 430 406 382 362 348 333
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.42 3.02 3.62 4.07 4.12 4.26 4.30 4.57 5.07 5.69 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.15 -0.16 -0.09 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.62 2.87 3.46 3.98 4.10 4.22 4.26 4.53 5.01 5.63
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 146 171 201 219 234 241 251 260 265 272 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 30.1 32.9 33.3 32.0 26.4 24.3 22.1 21.5 21.3 20.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 21 40 66 95 130 164 199 233 267 302
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 14 22 30 38 46 51 54 54 53 51
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 18 25 32 36 36 33 27 29 30
CO MtCO 235 270 314 375 428 472 518 549 579 598 617 651
NMVOC Mt 33 37 44 53 59 60 59 56 52 45 41 39
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 15 18 20 19 20 20 22 24 26
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data
ALM - B2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1511 1872 2263 2649 2992 3289 3554 3764 3931 4053 4139
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 3.7 5.5 8.8 14.6 22.8 32.6 42.6 51.4 59.3 66.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 4.9 6.2 8.2 11.7 17.0 23.9 32.4 41.2 49.6 57.2 64.9
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 11 11 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
Solids 1 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 5
Liquids 17 23 30 37 46 53 61 71 76 83 95 93
Gas 4 5 8 10 14 19 28 34 42 48 48 52
Electricity 3 5 7 11 16 28 40 54 70 86 102 119
Others 0 1 3 4 8 12 17 21 25 30 32 35
Total 39 47 61 75 95 120 152 186 219 255 284 306
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 14 24 37 58
Oil 21 32 40 42 50 51 50 50 36 25 18 14
Gas 8 11 18 27 41 62 87 111 132 150 155 133
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 13 20 26 32 39
Biomass 14 13 14 17 20 28 36 46 64 86 111 132
Other Renewables 2 3 6 8 13 23 32 40 47 53 58 62
Total 49 63 81 100 131 172 217 267 314 364 411 437
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.6 8.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.0 54.0 73.6 94.8 118.6 145.7 176.3 209.3 244.6 280.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
Cropland 371 389 397 405 413 421 429 438 446 455 464 474
Grasslands 1680 1676 1689 1699 1709 1725 1741 1754 1766 1777 1787 1797
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 7 48 100 151 164 177 179 170 161
Forest 1745 1717 1699 1692 1701 1721 1740 1752 1765 1777 1790 1803
Others 1684 1698 1695 1676 1608 1513 1419 1372 1326 1292 1269 1246
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.26 1.48 1.88 2.24 2.60 3.04 3.27 3.55 3.79 3.84 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.63 0.42 0.12 0.01 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 -0.20 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.90 1.90 2.01 2.25 2.49 2.94 3.17 3.43 3.63 3.64
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 94 102 112 129 149 162 175 187 193 200 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.4 15.2 16.7 17.8 19.4 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.0 17.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14
CO MtCO 396 404 416 427 445 492 542 616 728 860 992 1075
NMVOC Mt 48 55 65 72 78 81 83 86 82 80 77 75
NOx  MtN 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 19 20 20
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data