IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1HIGH MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.7 56.5 88.5 126.0 166.0 212.3 253.8 290.1 322.7 350.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.3 45.7 66.9 96.0 130.3 166.8 208.9 246.1 281.7 313.4 340.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 25 20 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 52 54 58 58 44 29 24 14 11 2 1
Liquids 111 123 152 180 212 238 259 262 242 208 179 161
Gas 41 47 58 66 71 75 74 67 62 58 53 45
Electricity 35 44 57 83 116 152 186 231 264 291 307 313
Others 8 10 17 32 52 76 104 139 173 201 218 213
Total 275 302 359 434 519 593 659 723 755 768 758 732
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 91 100 111 103 87 64 50 43 47 60 60
Oil 128 155 172 188 204 197 191 162 139 100 70 53
Gas 71 83 110 149 215 273 306 324 304 287 263 244
Nuclear 7 8 10 14 20 30 45 66 79 81 80 82
Biomass 46 44 47 60 79 101 123 159 203 245 280 316
Other Renewables 8 13 21 39 63 112 183 272 348 406 431 404
Total 352 393 460 560 682 798 911 1033 1117 1167 1184 1157
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.5
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.5 16.5 17.2
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.1 6.3 9.0 12.1 15.3 18.4 21.2 23.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 158.6 246.9 338.3 432.9 528.1 620.1 704.9 780.4 847.6 907.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429
Grasslands 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225
Forest 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719
Others 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.90 8.99 9.97 10.27 10.11 9.57 8.60 7.63 6.99 6.33 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.69 8.96 9.32 9.61 9.44 8.94 8.03 7.06 6.38 5.68
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 351 385 423 449 468 452 441 411 359 302 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 62.0 53.8 48.1 40.4 33.3 26.9 24.1 20.6 17.8 15.5
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 951 1065 1193 1323 1470 1549 1658 1731 1793 1871
NMVOC Mt 139 141 157 177 184 190 199 185 173 152 125 103
NOx  MtN 31 32 37 42 47 47 45 40 35 29 26 23
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
OECD90 - B1HIGH MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.5 31.1 37.2 43.5 49.8 56.2 63.0 70.5 78.6 86.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 22.1 27.0 32.4 37.9 43.5 49.2 55.3 62.1 69.3 76.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 75 75 73 70 71 68 66 62 58 55
Gas 22 28 31 30 31 30 25 20 14 12 10 7
Electricity 22 28 34 42 50 58 64 70 76 83 88 92
Others 1 1 1 5 7 9 11 15 17 19 19 18
Total 124 136 146 155 162 168 171 173 174 175 175 173
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 33 34 35 30 14 7 7 4 1 1 1
Oil 72 84 83 75 64 55 48 38 31 24 18 14
Gas 33 45 53 62 81 91 95 86 90 104 114 116
Nuclear 6 7 8 9 11 16 27 42 50 47 38 32
Biomass 6 8 8 13 17 20 23 31 40 50 62 68
Other Renewables 4 5 8 13 17 27 34 37 37 39 41 43
Total 159 182 194 207 220 224 233 240 252 264 275 274
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.4 94.3 124.9 152.7 177.3 199.4 219.6 239.1 258.4 277.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352
Grasslands 760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 23 33 44 45 46 45 42 39
Forest 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192
Others 838 826 805 770 728 684 639 607 574 551 537 522
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.27 3.14 2.73 2.46 2.16 2.00 1.99 2.01 1.96 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.25 3.14 2.98 2.59 2.34 2.08 1.96 1.94 1.93 1.84
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 69 66 62 59 56 53 53 53 53 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 166 170 163 162 157 164 171 177 180 166
NMVOC Mt 42 36 36 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 24 18
NOx  MtN 13 12 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 2
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
REF - B1HIGH MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.0 4.9 7.9 9.9 11.9 13.8 15.6 17.4 19.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.6 5.7 7.9 9.9 11.9 13.8 15.6 17.4 19.0
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 11 14 17 17 15 14 14 12 11 10
Gas 14 10 11 11 11 10 8 5 4 4 3 2
Electricity 6 5 6 7 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 18
Others 7 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 8
Total 50 36 37 42 48 48 47 45 45 43 41 38
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4
Oil 20 14 13 16 18 16 13 11 10 8 8 7
Gas 27 20 23 28 35 40 44 49 50 46 37 27
Nuclear 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2
Biomass 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 8 13 18
Other Renewables 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 13
Total 70 50 48 55 64 68 70 74 78 77 76 71
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.0 28.1 36.1 44.0 51.2 58.4 66.4 74.5 81.7 87.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
Grasslands 341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 9 20 29 37 38 39 38 35 33
Forest 966 951 934 933 934 954 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
Others 701 696 711 702 688 659 630 617 604 592 580 568
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.84 0.87 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 0.93 0.79 0.62 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20 -0.28 -0.23 -0.17 -0.15 -0.14 -0.14 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.88 0.76 0.84 0.75 0.69 0.76 0.84 0.78 0.65 0.48
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 39 41 43 45 46 41 38 36 32 27 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.1 4.6 3.0 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.4 2.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 44 49 58 63 60 53 49 40 35 33
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 18 21 23 25 27 30 30 23 15
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
ASIA - B1HIGH MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.9 14.0 28.0 44.1 60.5 81.5 99.6 112.8 123.9 131.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.3 13.7 23.5 36.7 51.2 65.4 84.4 99.6 112.8 123.9 131.7
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 15 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 33 42 49 52 39 26 21 13 10 1 0
Liquids 13 22 37 55 74 94 111 113 106 85 68 58
Gas 2 3 7 11 13 16 18 17 17 16 17 16
Electricity 4 6 11 21 35 49 63 83 96 104 107 106
Others 1 2 6 11 21 31 44 59 75 86 95 91
Total 62 82 114 155 198 234 264 293 306 302 288 271
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 41 52 64 64 63 46 32 23 24 34 29
Oil 15 26 40 57 72 74 77 69 66 48 31 23
Gas 3 5 14 24 39 55 68 74 68 52 44 34
Nuclear 0 1 1 3 7 11 16 19 22 24 27 32
Biomass 24 22 25 31 41 53 64 75 82 95 98 99
Other Renewables 1 3 5 12 25 44 75 124 159 183 183 169
Total 74 98 138 191 247 300 346 393 419 425 417 386
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.4 70.5 104.0 141.6 180.1 215.9 246.9 272.6 294.5 313.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.49 3.29 3.78 4.01 3.84 3.44 3.04 2.46 2.23 1.79 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.17 -0.18 -0.10 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.69 3.12 3.60 3.90 3.81 3.33 2.87 2.28 2.09 1.70
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 144 166 188 203 212 203 197 180 152 118 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 30.2 31.5 29.6 23.3 16.1 11.5 9.4 6.3 4.0 3.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 338 432 543 645 764 792 800 775 773 751
NMVOC Mt 33 37 47 60 65 68 75 69 61 48 40 34
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 16 18 20 19 17 14 12 10 9
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
ALM - B1HIGH MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.3 9.3 18.3 30.5 45.7 62.7 77.5 91.1 102.9 112.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.4 12.8 21.2 33.3 47.9 63.4 77.5 91.1 102.9 112.7
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1
Liquids 17 22 28 36 49 57 63 66 57 49 43 39
Gas 4 6 9 13 17 18 22 24 27 26 23 19
Electricity 3 5 7 13 21 33 46 63 76 87 94 96
Others 0 1 4 8 15 27 40 55 70 85 94 96
Total 39 48 61 82 111 143 178 211 231 248 254 251
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 10 13 17 21 26
Oil 21 30 35 41 49 52 52 44 31 20 13 8
Gas 8 12 20 34 60 87 100 114 96 86 68 67
Nuclear 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 5 7 10 13 16
Biomass 14 13 13 16 19 25 33 50 77 94 108 131
Other Renewables 2 4 7 11 17 35 67 103 143 174 194 179
Total 49 63 80 108 152 206 262 326 368 400 417 426
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 34.9 54.0 73.2 94.6 119.4 146.3 172.0 194.1 213.0 229.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 93 121 124 127 124 116 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862 1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.25 1.56 2.10 2.58 2.85 2.99 2.55 2.26 1.96 1.96 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.87 1.95 1.90 2.36 2.60 2.77 2.36 2.06 1.71 1.67
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 97 109 125 138 151 153 153 143 122 104 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.6 10.4 8.5 7.2 5.9 4.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 403 414 429 453 489 540 638 738 806 922
NMVOC Mt 48 55 59 64 67 67 68 60 53 45 39 36
NOx  MtN 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data