IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.2 52.1 73.1 100.7 135.6 171.6 208.5 249.8 290.0 328.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.3 44.6 61.6 82.2 108.4 140.0 171.8 204.1 242.5 281.3 318.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 27 22 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 51 58 52 47 38 21 16 6 2 1 1
Liquids 111 123 158 192 224 250 261 244 215 191 156 131
Gas 41 47 63 73 87 101 97 92 76 52 41 33
Electricity 35 44 62 89 120 151 174 196 204 208 203 193
Others 8 10 16 27 36 47 57 68 84 96 103 95
Total 275 303 379 449 524 593 616 616 586 548 503 452
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 91 109 109 98 77 39 19 7 4 2 2
Oil 128 155 172 189 203 197 190 159 124 96 68 48
Gas 71 84 119 159 212 258 258 258 234 210 183 166
Nuclear 7 8 11 16 27 43 48 42 24 17 18 21
Biomass 46 45 53 68 86 107 123 138 148 148 138 128
Other Renewables 8 13 24 43 62 97 161 230 303 347 372 348
Total 352 395 488 583 687 779 819 846 840 822 780 714
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.3 16.3 16.9
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.5 9.0 11.6 14.2 16.5 18.6 20.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 160.5 251.1 342.1 432.4 516.2 588.4 648.3 696.7 735.2 765.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429
Grasslands 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225
Forest 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719
Others 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.26 9.11 9.77 9.61 8.48 7.26 5.92 4.92 3.96 3.33 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.05 9.08 9.11 8.95 7.81 6.63 5.35 4.35 3.35 2.68
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 357 387 426 455 465 446 427 385 326 268 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 64.7 52.4 44.5 37.8 30.3 25.0 19.2 15.9 13.3 11.4
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 1000 1129 1271 1414 1460 1426 1333 1192 1063 966
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 183 192 199 194 171 143 114 87 68
NOx  MtN 31 32 39 45 51 53 49 44 36 28 21 16
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
OECD90 - B1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 26.0 32.4 38.3 43.9 49.9 55.4 59.8 66.3 73.9 82.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 22.4 28.1 33.3 38.3 43.6 48.5 52.5 58.4 65.1 72.7
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 74 72 64 58 55 52 48 45 41 37
Gas 22 28 34 35 38 36 28 21 14 11 9 7
Electricity 22 28 36 44 50 53 56 57 59 61 63 63
Others 1 1 2 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 7
Total 124 136 151 158 158 153 145 137 129 124 120 114
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 33 35 35 30 14 5 3 1 1 0 0
Oil 72 84 81 71 56 45 36 30 24 18 14 10
Gas 33 45 58 67 76 75 73 70 74 71 62 53
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 15 27 30 23 8 3 6 8
Biomass 6 8 10 14 16 17 19 23 27 33 37 42
Other Renewables 4 5 9 14 17 22 31 41 55 61 64 64
Total 159 182 200 211 211 200 194 189 188 186 182 176
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.6 94.8 124.4 148.7 167.5 183.6 198.7 212.8 224.6 233.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352
Grasslands 760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 23 33 44 45 46 45 42 39
Forest 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192
Others 838 826 805 770 728 684 639 607 574 551 537 522
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.37 3.28 2.93 2.22 1.80 1.61 1.54 1.36 1.12 0.90 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.29 3.15 2.77 2.08 1.69 1.53 1.50 1.32 1.04 0.78
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 72 70 67 62 58 55 52 51 50 49 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 8.9 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 177 183 167 151 137 129 119 113 104 103
NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 37 32 27 24 22 20 18 14 10
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 4 2 1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
REF - B1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.3 18.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.4 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.3 18.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 10 13 14 16 18 17 14 13 12 10
Gas 14 10 12 12 12 12 9 7 5 4 3 2
Electricity 6 5 6 7 9 12 14 15 15 15 15 15
Others 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5
Total 50 36 37 40 43 47 48 45 41 38 35 32
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 12 9 6 3 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0
Oil 20 14 13 15 16 16 18 16 11 9 7 5
Gas 27 21 25 28 33 39 39 38 39 39 34 30
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Biomass 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 6 7 8 9 9
Other Renewables 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 10
Total 70 51 50 53 58 65 67 68 66 64 59 54
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.1 28.2 35.5 42.5 48.7 54.7 60.7 66.6 72.0 76.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
Grasslands 341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 9 20 29 37 38 39 38 35 33
Forest 966 951 934 933 934 954 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
Others 701 696 711 702 688 659 630 617 604 592 580 568
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.86 0.84 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.62 0.52 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20 -0.28 -0.23 -0.17 -0.15 -0.14 -0.14 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 0.72 0.74 0.66 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.58 0.48 0.38
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 40 41 44 46 45 40 35 31 28 25 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.2 4.7 3.0 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 46 50 58 72 81 72 54 48 35 25
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 18 21 25 28 27 26 25 19 14
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
ASIA - B1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 4.8 8.7 15.1 24.9 37.9 51.4 64.8 78.7 91.7 103.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.2 12.0 17.3 24.6 34.1 46.1 57.4 67.7 79.3 91.7 103.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 32 45 42 39 31 17 13 5 1 0 0
Liquids 13 22 37 55 73 94 99 92 82 74 62 50
Gas 2 3 7 11 13 17 20 25 23 15 10 8
Electricity 4 6 12 21 32 44 49 57 59 60 58 53
Others 1 2 5 9 12 15 16 20 24 27 30 28
Total 62 82 117 145 173 203 204 206 193 176 159 139
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 42 57 58 49 44 24 12 4 2 1 0
Oil 15 26 39 53 67 71 71 58 47 37 26 18
Gas 3 5 13 24 35 48 48 48 45 38 31 24
Nuclear 0 1 2 3 7 9 10 11 9 8 7 7
Biomass 24 22 25 30 39 50 53 61 61 62 59 50
Other Renewables 1 3 6 12 20 33 53 75 92 101 113 110
Total 74 98 142 179 217 255 258 266 259 249 237 208
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.1
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.9 69.9 99.3 130.3 159.5 183.1 200.7 213.9 223.9 231.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.58 3.01 3.21 3.26 2.72 2.13 1.66 1.32 1.00 0.75 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.17 -0.18 -0.10 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.78 2.84 3.04 3.16 2.69 2.03 1.49 1.14 0.86 0.65
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 146 163 183 196 203 197 192 172 138 105 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 30.9 27.3 22.9 18.2 12.4 9.0 6.3 4.6 3.2 2.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 343 422 523 624 654 661 622 558 512 451
NMVOC Mt 33 37 48 56 60 64 61 53 43 30 21 16
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 15 18 19 17 15 13 10 8 6
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
ALM - B1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.3 17.0 27.6 41.6 56.7 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.6 12.8 20.1 30.6 44.0 57.8 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 11 11 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 4 4 5 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1
Liquids 17 22 37 53 72 82 90 83 72 59 42 33
Gas 4 6 10 15 24 36 40 39 34 22 19 16
Electricity 3 5 9 18 29 42 55 68 71 72 68 62
Others 0 1 3 7 12 19 27 34 46 56 61 56
Total 39 49 73 106 149 190 219 228 224 210 190 168
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 4 8 11 15 18 11 5 2 2 1 2
Oil 21 30 40 50 64 65 66 55 42 32 22 15
Gas 8 12 23 39 68 96 98 101 76 62 56 60
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 8 8 6 5 7
Biomass 14 14 17 24 30 37 47 48 53 46 32 27
Other Renewables 2 4 7 14 21 37 70 106 148 176 186 165
Total 49 65 96 140 201 259 300 322 328 322 302 275
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.9
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.9 58.2 82.9 111.0 140.4 167.0 188.1 203.4 214.8 224.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 93 121 124 127 124 116 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862 1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.46 1.98 2.76 3.27 3.09 2.69 1.94 1.50 1.22 1.16 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.08 2.36 2.57 3.05 2.85 2.47 1.75 1.31 0.97 0.87
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 112 133 151 159 154 148 132 110 89 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 14.1 13.1 11.4 9.0 7.1 5.4 4.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 434 475 522 568 588 564 538 473 412 387
NMVOC Mt 48 55 64 72 80 83 81 68 54 41 33 28
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 13 16 19 19 18 14 11 10 8
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data