IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8048 8207 8704 8536 8372 8028 7527 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 19.4 25.5 34.2 46.0 60.0 80.7 110.2 135.8 169.8 214.5 275.5 348.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 48 34 24 17 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1
Liquids 138 148 167 188 215 247 288 349 368 400 410 448
Gas 56 54 79 111 142 171 197 175 173 165 185 177
Electricity 35 46 53 61 70 80 98 105 115 131 150 164
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 278 282 323 377 438 507 590 633 658 697 747 791
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 90 64 46 34 25 19 14 12 9 7 5 5
Oil 123 134 146 158 177 192 186 177 156 158 147 170
Gas 71 91 129 169 205 237 251 228 223 212 231 219
Nuclear 22 18 17 15 16 26 43 70 114 173 237 283
Biomass 28 30 37 55 75 104 136 198 231 257 276 291
Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 5 57 63 64 64 63 62
Total 343 345 382 438 504 583 687 747 797 873 959 1030
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
Oil 0.0 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.4 9.3 11.2 12.9 14.5 16.1 17.5
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.6 9.0 11.5 13.8 16.0 18.2 20.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 156.4 241.2 331.3 427.1 524.5 616.7 701.0 780.7 859.5 940.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1451 1451 1454 1689 1809 1821 1912 1713 1527 1363 1240 1145
Grasslands 3395 3395 3392 3160 3040 3029 2773 2609 2609 2609 2609 2609
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 528 713 877 1000 1095
Forest 4138 4142 4170 4199 4231 4265 4310 4361 4408 4412 4412 4412
Others 4061 4057 4029 3997 3965 3930 3886 3835 3788 3784 3784 3784
Total 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.25 7.80 8.49 9.13 9.11 8.49 7.94 7.77 7.79 8.06
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.99 0.91 0.82 0.72 0.53 0.31 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.13
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.25 8.71 9.31 9.85 9.64 8.80 8.05 7.88 7.90 8.19
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - B1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1035 1046 1081 1085 1091 1096 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 19.6 24.7 31.0 36.4 43.3 50.6 55.3 60.3 66.5 72.2 78.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
Liquids 71 74 66 60 59 58 57 78 72 66 62 59
Gas 28 27 44 58 66 71 77 59 68 76 81 85
Electricity 21 26 29 32 34 37 39 41 42 44 46 47
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 132 136 145 155 162 168 175 179 182 186 189 191
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 28 21 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4
Oil 71 74 66 60 59 58 57 78 72 66 61 57
Gas 34 47 72 94 107 117 115 99 106 112 116 117
Nuclear 18 15 12 11 13 15 19 21 26 32 40 48
Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 7
Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 14 14 16 17 16 16
Total 171 171 178 187 196 204 214 221 227 235 242 248
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 10.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.5 95.9 130.4 166.0 201.4 236.4 271.7 306.8 341.6 376.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 303 243 195
Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 134 182
Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 768 780 780 780 780 780
Others 794 794 794 794 794 794 782 770 770 770 770 770
Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.25 3.35 3.43 3.50 3.40 3.55 3.51 3.46 3.40 3.33
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.05 -0.01 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.09
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.27 3.40 3.51 3.61 3.46 3.55 3.52 3.50 3.46 3.43
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - B1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 432 430 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.6 5.2 6.2 7.9 10.3 13.0 16.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 13 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0
Liquids 17 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 12 20
Gas 21 20 23 25 30 35 40 41 43 46 45 39
Electricity 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 58 48 47 45 49 54 60 60 62 65 67 68
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0
Oil 19 13 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 12 20
Gas 27 27 30 32 39 45 50 51 53 55 54 47
Nuclear 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 8
Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 69 57 54 51 56 61 68 68 71 74 77 80
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.8 27.9 36.1 44.9 54.4 64.0 73.4 82.9 93.0 103.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 89 79
Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 128 138
Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815
Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722
Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.82 0.76 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.94 0.97 1.02
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.83 0.79 0.85 0.93 0.97 0.94 0.94 0.98 1.03 1.09
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - B1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2642 3080 3425 3728 3861 3895 4008 3814 3632 3368 3040 2744
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.0 3.4 5.9 10.1 17.0 28.8 39.0 52.6 70.5 97.3 126.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 20 14 10 7 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 0
Liquids 26 33 49 68 86 107 131 152 165 178 186 187
Gas 2 3 4 8 14 21 24 17 12 8 11 19
Electricity 4 7 8 11 13 16 23 24 29 35 42 45
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 52 57 72 93 118 147 180 194 207 221 240 251
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 20 14 10 7 5 3 2 2 1 1 1
Oil 14 22 30 39 49 56 61 49 46 45 45 46
Gas 3 5 7 11 17 23 25 18 13 9 12 19
Nuclear 1 1 3 2 2 6 13 18 38 61 79 87
Biomass 13 20 27 41 55 72 85 114 127 138 145 144
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 20 20 20 20 20
Total 61 68 81 104 129 163 204 222 245 274 301 315
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.6
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 38.0 58.6 80.5 103.9 128.7 151.9 172.4 191.6 210.2 229.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 366 366 369 380 380 380 379 375 362 326 285 248
Grasslands 431 431 428 420 420 420 422 387 387 387 387 387
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 51 88 129 166
Forest 365 367 380 390 399 407 407 407 407 407 407 407
Others 458 456 444 430 421 414 414 414 414 414 414 414
Total 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 1.81 1.95 2.16 2.35 2.45 2.05 1.91 1.82 1.84 1.96
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.01 2.10 2.27 2.42 2.52 2.13 1.97 1.86 1.86 1.97
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - B1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1348 1699 2071 2449 2720 2836 3192 3231 3259 3190 3029 2864
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 2.7 4.6 7.2 10.9 16.8 25.6 35.3 49.0 67.1 93.0 127.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 24 29 41 51 61 73 90 110 122 148 150 182
Gas 5 4 7 19 32 44 56 57 49 35 48 36
Electricity 3 6 9 13 16 20 28 32 35 43 53 62
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 35 40 60 84 110 138 175 199 207 225 252 280
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Oil 18 25 38 49 59 68 58 40 28 38 29 47
Gas 7 12 19 32 42 51 61 61 52 36 50 37
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 27 47 76 111 140
Biomass 8 6 7 12 19 31 51 83 102 116 126 139
Other Renewables 2 2 1 1 1 1 22 25 25 24 24 24
Total 41 48 69 95 123 155 202 236 254 290 339 386
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.1 58.8 84.4 112.2 140.1 164.5 183.5 199.3 214.8 231.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 490 490 490 714 834 846 939 787 648 623 623 623
Grasslands 2095 2095 2095 1870 1750 1739 1482 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 445 584 609 609 609
Forest 2202 2204 2220 2239 2261 2288 2321 2360 2407 2411 2411 2411
Others 2086 2084 2068 2050 2027 2000 1967 1928 1881 1878 1878 1878
Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.37 1.75 2.11 2.41 2.35 1.99 1.60 1.55 1.58 1.74
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.75 0.67 0.58 0.47 0.34 0.19 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.12 2.42 2.69 2.88 2.69 2.18 1.62 1.54 1.55 1.70
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN