IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5204 6056 6741 7426 8112 8368 8631 8465 8301 7957 7453 6982
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 27.4 37.3 51.9 73.9 99.7 134.5 165.9 204.8 245.7 286.6 334.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 46 30 24 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 39 47 56 62 65 67 52 41 31 24 18
Liquids 111 119 130 152 173 186 200 202 204 204 200 196
Gas 51 59 82 104 131 149 170 161 152 137 117 100
Electricity 38 50 63 81 103 138 186 228 279 314 324 334
Others
Total 285 311 353 417 485 549 623 652 683 688 668 648
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 93 126 162 195 198 204 168 138 113 92 75
Oil 143 161 176 177 170 152 137 125 115 108 106 103
Gas 73 104 143 183 229 264 308 288 270 241 204 172
Nuclear 6 10 11 14 15 23 38 36 33 30 27 25
Biomass 50 48 38 56 77 94 117 133 150 162 166 171
Other Renewables 10 11 14 19 29 49 87 138 220 290 316 344
Total 376 427 508 610 715 781 892 887 926 944 911 890
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.0 9.3 10.8 12.5 13.9 14.9 16.0
Oil 0.1 1.7 3.4 5.1 6.9 8.2 9.9 11.0 12.3 13.5 14.5 15.7
Gas 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.1 11.3 13.7 16.6 19.3 21.5 23.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 162.2 260.5 368.0 482.6 602.8 718.7 821.3 910.7 987.0 1053.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429
Grasslands 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 59 137 187 254 260 266 260 242 225
Forest 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4404 4475 4522 4570 4619 4668 4719
Others 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3382 3226 3131 3039 2968 2917 2868
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.47 10.05 11.50 12.00 12.59 11.12 9.86 8.29 7.27 6.40
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.93 0.23 -0.29 -0.31 -0.24 -0.28 -0.19 -0.09 -0.21 -0.26
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.39 10.28 11.22 11.69 12.35 10.84 9.67 8.20 7.06 6.15
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 358 391 426 437 449 429 410 364 300 248
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.2
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 76.3 89.2 92.9 60.7 42.3 33.1 26.3 22.8 21.4 20.1
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 968 981 1076 1146 1223 1241 1260 1278 1296 1314
NMVOC Mt 139 141 157 177 176 171 167 141 119 97 78 62
NOx  MtN 31 32 35 38 41 41 40 36 31 28 26 24
OECD90 - B1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 801 857 896 935 973 991 1008 1013 1018 1023 1029 1035
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.7 25.5 31.3 38.5 44.9 52.4 59.1 66.7 74.0 80.5 87.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2
Liquids 64 70 67 70 68 66 64 60 56 53 50 47
Gas 25 31 37 40 43 41 40 35 31 27 23 19
Electricity 22 27 29 31 33 38 43 50 59 64 66 68
Others
Total 127 141 144 151 153 154 154 153 152 148 142 137
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 34 37 38 38 36 33 26 21 17 14 11
Oil 76 88 85 81 69 56 46 39 33 29 28 26
Gas 34 51 58 61 63 62 62 54 47 40 34 28
Nuclear 5 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5
Biomass 6 1 0 4 9 14 20 23 26 28 28 29
Other Renewables 6 6 7 9 13 17 22 32 48 60 65 70
Total 167 187 195 201 199 192 192 182 181 180 174 170
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.0 93.7 124.5 153.8 181.5 206.5 228.0 246.3 261.8 274.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352
Grasslands 760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 23 32 44 45 46 45 41 39
Forest 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192
Others 838 826 805 770 728 682 639 605 574 551 536 522
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.24 3.27 3.16 2.96 2.77 2.34 1.97 1.68 1.45 1.25
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.12 -0.14 -0.11 -0.08 -0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.06
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.18 3.15 3.02 2.85 2.69 2.31 1.98 1.68 1.42 1.19
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 69 66 60 54 50 46 43 41 38
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 10.4 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.8
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 172 183 200 205 210 209 209 209 210 212
NMVOC Mt 42 36 34 31 28 23 18 11 5 1 1 1
NOx  MtN 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4
REF - B1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 10.2 12.9 15.7 19.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1
Liquids 19 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2
Gas 19 13 16 17 18 21 26 23 21 17 13 10
Electricity 8 9 9 9 9 12 17 21 25 27 27 27
Others
Total 58 42 37 36 35 42 51 51 52 50 45 40
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 13 13 12 11 12 13 11 9 7 6 5
Oil 22 12 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1
Gas 26 22 25 26 25 29 33 30 26 22 17 13
Nuclear 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2
Biomass 2 4 0 3 8 12 17 19 22 24 24 25
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 4 8 13 20 25 26 28
Total 71 54 50 51 53 63 79 78 82 82 76 73
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.2 28.3 34.5 39.6 44.0 47.3 49.7 50.0 48.8 47.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
Grasslands 341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 9 20 27 37 38 39 38 35 33
Forest 966 951 934 933 934 953 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
Others 701 696 711 702 688 658 630 617 604 592 580 568
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.48 0.35 -0.11 -0.05 0.02
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.05 -0.10 -0.10 -0.19 -0.26 -0.20 -0.15 -0.02 -0.07 -0.11
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.93 0.68 0.56 0.47 0.40 0.28 0.20 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 48 50 49 46 43 34 26 20 16 12
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.6 9.2 6.9 4.3 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 36 34 33 33 33 32 32 31 30 29
NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 1
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
ASIA - B1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3556 3851 4147 4183 4220 4016 3822 3541 3194 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.9 5.2 9.2 16.2 24.0 35.8 46.0 59.2 73.5 88.2 105.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 22 20 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 15 20 30 39 46 49 52 40 31 24 18 14
Liquids 11 15 26 35 45 51 58 59 60 60 58 57
Gas 2 4 10 18 24 28 33 32 31 28 24 20
Electricity 5 7 15 25 38 54 78 96 119 133 135 137
Others
Total 61 69 101 134 162 189 220 232 244 246 236 227
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 39 66 95 122 119 116 94 76 61 49 38
Oil 17 29 39 42 44 40 35 31 28 25 24 23
Gas 4 9 21 37 52 67 87 81 76 67 55 45
Nuclear 0 1 2 3 4 8 16 15 14 13 12 10
Biomass 28 24 19 18 15 19 24 27 31 33 34 35
Other Renewables 1 2 2 4 7 16 34 56 92 122 131 141
Total 80 103 148 199 244 269 314 306 317 321 304 293
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 3.8 5.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.3 8.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 43.8 79.5 124.5 176.0 230.6 282.6 327.2 365.9 399.0 427.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 39 52 54 55 53 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 577 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.87 3.99 4.97 5.19 5.42 4.74 4.15 3.57 3.03 2.57
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.29 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.08
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.16 3.99 5.02 5.29 5.63 4.77 4.15 3.58 3.05 2.66
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 142 160 183 196 209 205 200 177 143 114
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 40.0 56.5 58.2 31.2 16.7 11.4 7.8 6.0 5.3 4.7
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 335 366 438 473 510 511 511 510 507 504
NMVOC Mt 33 37 51 63 59 60 61 51 42 33 24 17
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 15 18 19 19 16 13 11 9 8
ALM - B1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2726
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 3.0 5.4 9.6 16.7 26.0 40.4 52.5 68.2 85.1 101.7 121.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 17 9 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2
Liquids 17 24 31 41 55 64 75 79 84 88 89 90
Gas 4 10 19 29 46 57 71 70 69 65 57 50
Electricity 4 7 11 16 23 33 48 61 77 89 95 102
Others
Total 40 60 71 97 135 163 198 215 235 245 244 244
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 7 11 16 24 31 41 36 32 28 24 21
Oil 27 33 44 47 51 51 52 52 52 52 53 54
Gas 9 22 39 59 89 106 126 123 121 112 98 86
Nuclear 0 0 1 1 2 5 10 9 9 9 8 8
Biomass 14 18 19 31 45 50 56 63 72 77 79 81
Other Renewables 2 2 3 5 7 13 23 37 61 82 93 105
Total 57 83 115 159 219 257 308 322 346 360 356 355
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.7 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.4 8.4 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.2 59.1 84.5 113.1 146.6 182.2 216.4 248.4 277.4 303.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 89 121 124 127 124 115 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1861 1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1526 1461 1432 1403 1379 1360 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.48 2.02 2.73 3.20 3.75 3.56 3.39 3.14 2.84 2.56
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.65 0.44 -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.08 -0.05 -0.07 -0.12 -0.17
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.13 2.46 2.63 3.08 3.63 3.48 3.34 3.08 2.72 2.39
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 97 112 128 135 143 141 138 124 101 84
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 12.2 12.6 17.3 15.0 13.1 10.3 8.1 7.2 7.1 7.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 425 398 405 436 470 489 508 528 548 569
NMVOC Mt 48 55 60 72 80 79 79 73 67 59 50 42
NOx  MtN 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11