IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5280 6122 6892 7618 8196 8547 8708 8671 8484 8142 7663 7047
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 21.0 26.8 37.3 52.6 73.1 100.7 135.6 171.7 208.5 249.7 290.1 328.4
1990 US$/cap 3971.0 4372.0 5416.0 6900.0 8916.0 11783.0 15569.0 19803.0 24577.0 30667.0 37856.0 46598.0 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 54 57 60 53 46 37 27 24 22 19 16 14
Solids 43 43 41 42 43 44 44 40 35 30 25 21
Liquids 106 117 137 152 156 151 135 115 102 93 84 75
Gas 46 52 66 70 71 74 79 82 83 82 80 76
Electricity 39 54 83 122 168 223 260 270 266 255 240 220
Others 2 4 10 23 38 52 64 70 69 65 59 52
Total 289 327 398 462 523 581 608 601 576 544 505 458
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 105 109 120 134 163 181 167 133 101 76 58 44
Oil 129 141 176 206 230 236 228 199 167 143 119 99
Gas 62 71 108 138 153 166 173 168 154 136 121 103
Non-Fossil Electric 8 14 22 33 49 73 105 132 151 163 168 165
Biomass 3 4 11 29 54 77 95 102 99 90 79 67
Other Renewables 61 68 71 66 61 54 46 44 42 41 39 36
Total 368 407 508 606 710 788 813 778 715 650 584 514
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.5 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.0 11.1 12.0 12.7 13.2
Oil 0.0 1.3 2.9 4.8 7.0 9.3 11.6 13.8 15.6 17.2 18.5 19.6
Gas 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.2 5.8 7.5 9.2 10.8 12.3 13.6 14.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 161.6 261.1 369.8 483.9 599.0 704.1 793.7 868.0 928.1 975.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 2.1 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.5 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1436 1371 1445 1499 1516 1486 1429 1360 1288 1209 1124 1038 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 3435 3316 3424 3404 3292 3052 2785 2500 2293 2142 2023 1899 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 8 10 24 68 134 209 268 294 287 262 227 194
Forest 4277 4261 4179 4258 4274 4375 4551 4711 4897 5130 5349 5543
Others 3916 4114 3999 3843 3853 3950 4038 4207 4305 4327 4348 4398
Total 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.50 10.00 11.20 12.20 11.70 10.20 8.60 7.30 6.10 5.20
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.78 0.63 -0.09 -0.48 -0.41 -0.46 -0.42 -0.60 -0.78 -0.97 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.28 10.63 11.11 11.72 11.29 9.74 8.18 6.70 5.32 4.23
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 349 377 385 381 359 342 324 293 266 236
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.4 5.7
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 73.9 74.6 78.2 78.5 68.9 55.8 44.3 36.1 29.8 24.9
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 789 751 603 531 471 459 456 426 399 363
NMVOC Mt 139 141 141 140 131 123 116 111 103 99 96 87
NOx  MtN 31 32 36 40 42 43 39 34 30 26 22 19
OECD90 - B1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 799 849 890 932 965 990 1001 1005 1009 1020 1029 1032
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.5 20.2 25.9 32.4 38.2 43.9 49.9 55.4 59.8 66.3 73.8 82.3
1990 US$/cap 20648.9 23841.8 29100.0 34761.7 39587.5 44382.4 49810.4 55070.9 59257.3 65005.4 71721.0 79765.3 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2
Solids 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4
Liquids 57 60 60 58 51 41 32 25 20 19 17 16
Gas 24 27 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28
Electricity 24 36 47 54 58 58 57 55 52 51 50 49
Others 2 3 5 8 13 18 21 22 22 20 19 17
Total 120 137 152 159 159 153 146 138 130 125 121 116
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 37 46 46 40 36 30 24 19 15 13 11 10
Oil 67 73 74 72 64 50 39 31 25 22 20 19
Gas 28 36 42 44 41 38 37 35 34 33 32 31
Non-Fossil Electric 7 12 18 24 29 32 35 37 37 37 37 37
Biomass 2 3 5 8 14 18 21 22 23 21 20 19
Other Renewables 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9
Total 151 178 195 199 193 178 166 154 144 136 131 126
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.9
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.1 96.4 126.6 152.1 173.3 190.4 204.7 217.1 228.3 238.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 379 354 344 349 348 349 352 351 347 345 343 339 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 785 704 619 553 498 459 428 418 408 402 396 389 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 3 1 2 8 16 27 36 42 42 37 31 26
Forest 1115 1165 1215 1259 1299 1328 1351 1361 1378 1401 1423 1451
Others 956 1015 1058 1069 1077 1076 1072 1065 1063 1054 1045 1033
Total 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.30 3.20 2.80 2.40 2.00 1.60 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.06 -0.02 -0.07 -0.09 -0.08 -0.06 -0.14 -0.12 -0.11 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.40 3.26 2.78 2.33 1.90 1.52 1.34 1.16 1.07 0.99
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 75 72 68 63 56 52 50 46 42 40
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 11.8 7.9 5.4 3.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 153 137 116 100 85 72 64 63 59 56
NMVOC Mt 42 36 35 33 29 24 21 18 16 16 15 13
NOx  MtN 13 12 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 2
REF - B1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 412 429 437 443 445 443 432 419 401 384 365 347
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.4 18.1
1990 US$/cap 2307.2 1675.8 2335.2 3864.4 6258.7 9702.5 14328.5 19522.7 25650.8 33306.4 42087.4 52209.7 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Solids 14 10 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2
Liquids 21 12 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5
Gas 15 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6
Electricity 9 5 7 11 14 18 20 20 19 18 17 16
Others 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 62 40 37 40 42 46 46 45 41 38 35 32
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 36 18 13 12 12 14 14 12 9 8 6 5
Oil 28 13 14 16 16 18 18 16 13 11 10 8
Gas 25 15 15 18 19 20 18 17 15 13 11 10
Non-Fossil Electric 1 1 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8
Biomass 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Other Renewables 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 95 52 48 52 56 63 64 60 54 48 43 39
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.6 27.7 34.7 40.5 46.1 51.0 54.1 55.9 57.0 57.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 278 217 219 209 190 173 154 141 128 117 106 98 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 392 300 321 319 286 248 211 187 170 162 155 148 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 1 0 1 4 12 28 41 51 57 58 50 46
Forest 1146 1177 1175 1282 1295 1310 1350 1378 1410 1443 1459 1480
Others 461 583 562 463 495 519 521 521 512 498 507 506
Total 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.81 0.61 0.51 0.41 0.41
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.10 -0.31 -0.35 -0.36 -0.38 -0.41 -0.36 -0.34 -0.29 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.80 0.81 0.60 0.56 0.55 0.43 0.20 0.15 0.06 0.12
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 38 42 44 40 34 33 30 27 24 21
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 9.0 7.7 6.9 7.0 6.5 5.6 4.6 3.9 3.0 2.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 28 23 20 19 19 17 15 13 12 9
NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1
ASIA - B1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 2781 3246 3609 3929 4142 4235 4220 4088 3871 3594 3262 2886
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 2.7 4.8 8.7 15.1 24.9 37.9 51.4 64.8 78.7 91.7 103.1
1990 US$/cap 502.0 836.8 1336.1 2206.5 3651.1 5885.3 8980.9 12579.4 16732.0 21889.1 28118.6 35726.2 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 29 31 30 24 19 14 9 8 6 5 5 4
Solids 20 23 23 23 23 22 20 17 14 12 10 8
Liquids 12 22 29 34 38 39 35 30 26 24 21 19
Gas 2 6 13 17 19 20 22 23 23 23 21 20
Electricity 4 9 19 36 56 80 93 95 93 88 84 77
Others 0 1 3 9 16 23 27 28 26 24 21 18
Total 68 92 117 144 171 198 205 200 189 175 162 144
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 41 51 58 67 74 64 48 35 24 17 11
Oil 16 27 39 51 63 61 56 49 40 33 27 21
Gas 4 11 25 42 56 63 59 52 45 38 31 25
Non-Fossil Electric 0 1 2 5 11 24 40 52 60 65 68 67
Biomass 0 1 3 11 23 34 40 38 37 31 26 22
Other Renewables 30 33 32 27 23 18 13 12 11 10 9 8
Total 79 113 153 195 244 273 272 251 227 200 178 154
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.1 73.2 110.1 151.3 191.9 227.4 256.7 280.2 298.1 310.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 382 392 405 419 422 411 393 362 327 288 252 216 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 561 652 734 748 753 753 723 600 531 471 431 386 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 1 1 3 12 32 71 94 110 95 84 63 50
Forest 488 403 348 330 316 300 302 334 383 489 599 671
Others 544 528 486 468 454 441 464 570 640 645 631 653
Total 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.58 3.18 3.78 4.08 3.68 3.08 2.48 1.98 1.58 1.28
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.11 -0.09 -0.35 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.82 3.40 3.98 4.27 3.85 3.24 2.62 2.09 1.49 0.93
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 136 148 154 161 157 149 141 128 118 105
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.9
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 27.6 21.4 15.3 10.7 7.7 5.8 4.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 286 289 280 285 245 238 233 228 222 214
NMVOC Mt 33 37 40 40 40 40 37 36 33 32 32 29
NOx  MtN 7 9 11 13 15 15 13 11 9 8 7 5
ALM - B1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 1287 1597 1954 2315 2643 2879 3055 3159 3202 3145 3006 2783
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.1 3.1 5.6 9.8 16.9 27.6 41.6 56.7 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.9
1990 US$/cap 1653.4 1933.0 2839.5 4243.2 6406.6 9580.8 13623.6 17954.7 22996.3 29243.6 36311.8 44869.7 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 16 19 24 23 21 18 14 13 11 10 9 7
Solids 1 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 8 7
Liquids 15 23 36 48 55 60 58 53 48 45 40 35
Gas 4 8 15 16 16 17 21 23 25 25 25 23
Electricity 2 4 10 21 41 67 90 100 101 97 89 79
Others 0 0 1 4 8 9 13 17 18 18 17 15
Total 39 57 91 119 150 183 211 219 216 205 187 165
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 3 4 10 24 48 64 65 54 42 32 24 18
Oil 17 27 48 68 87 107 114 103 89 77 62 51
Gas 6 10 25 33 36 45 59 64 60 52 47 37
Non-Fossil Electric 0 0 1 2 5 12 24 36 46 53 55 53
Biomass 0 0 2 7 14 23 29 36 33 33 28 22
Other Renewables 18 22 27 26 25 23 20 19 19 18 16 15
Total 43 64 112 160 216 273 312 313 290 265 232 196
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4
Oil 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.6 11.1
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.8 63.9 98.4 140.0 187.7 235.4 278.2 314.8 344.7 369.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 397 408 477 521 558 553 530 506 486 460 423 385 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 1697 1660 1750 1784 1755 1592 1424 1295 1184 1108 1041 975 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 2 7 18 44 74 84 96 90 94 84 83 74
Forest 1528 1517 1441 1386 1365 1437 1548 1639 1726 1798 1868 1940
Others 1955 1987 1893 1844 1827 1915 1981 2050 2090 2130 2165 2205
Total 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.81 2.71 3.71 4.81 5.11 4.71 4.11 3.51 2.91 2.41
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.45 0.45 0.04 -0.25 -0.13 -0.15 -0.10 -0.21 -0.22 -0.22 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.26 3.16 3.75 4.56 4.98 4.56 4.01 3.30 2.69 2.19
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 100 115 119 117 112 108 103 92 82 70
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 21.2 26.8 33.7 37.4 35.6 29.9 24.0 19.5 15.7 12.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 321 301 186 126 121 131 143 121 105 83
NMVOC Mt 48 55 54 55 51 48 47 47 45 42 40 36
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 13 16 18 18 17 15 13 11 10