IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6170 7188 8206 9170 10715 11296 12139 12587 13828 14743 15068
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 25.2 31.9 40.5 51.2 72.3 81.6 101.9 114.1 159.3 218.4 242.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 31.2 39.7 50.5 63.3 82.2 106.0 132.2 155.2 180.1 208.0 225.6
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 23 26 24 22 20 18 17 16 16 15 15
Solids 42 39 27 20 13 24 32 30 21 9 7 6
Liquids 111 137 181 235 279 284 296 302 352 391 456 501
Gas 41 51 58 68 85 105 132 162 145 156 143 161
Electricity 35 46 60 82 109 147 184 230 277 337 397 459
Others 8 11 17 28 44 65 88 113 137 158 180 200
Total 275 306 368 457 552 645 750 855 947 1066 1197 1342
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 83 97 122 157 211 273 342 458 569 735 871
Oil 128 171 208 253 274 244 205 146 109 86 64 47
Gas 71 86 108 135 173 208 245 292 268 285 281 289
Nuclear 7 9 13 17 22 34 47 62 79 97 116 136
Biomass 46 41 42 50 69 97 141 194 245 271 287 299
Other Renewables 8 14 21 34 50 77 103 132 165 196 228 280
Total 352 404 489 610 745 871 1014 1168 1323 1504 1710 1921
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.5 7.6 10.3 13.7 18.3 24.0 31.4
Oil 0.0 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.8 10.5 13.0 15.0 16.5 17.6 18.4 19.1
Gas 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.9 10.3 13.2 15.9 18.8 21.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 162.5 267.0 391.0 530.7 683.4 848.2 1027.2 1227.6 1459.2 1725.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.34 10.32 12.28 13.66 15.11 16.46 18.38 21.10 24.90 28.21 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.05 0.96 0.81 0.59 0.38 0.22 0.10 -0.02 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.45 11.46 13.33 14.62 15.91 17.05 18.76 21.32 25.00 28.19
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 363 418 489 592 671 743 803 900 993 1069 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 68.3 79.8 94.2 106.5 103.6 99.0 83.8 74.3 68.1 68.7
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165
CO MtCO 879 877 972 1100 1246 1396 1585 1810 2075 2250 2426 2646
NMVOC Mt 139 141 170 204 229 239 242 241 247 262 281 311
NOx  MtN 31 32 38 47 56 61 66 71 78 87 97 110
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data
OECD90 - A2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 851 923 975 1027 1072 1131 1151 1202 1228 1323 1451 1496
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.3 18.7 22.3 26.0 30.0 37.1 39.9 46.3 50.0 63.1 80.7 87.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 16.0 18.5 20.8 23.1 28.2 30.8 36.2 39.0 49.5 63.8 69.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 72 88 102 105 99 88 78 79 80 85 94
Gas 22 26 22 16 19 23 28 33 27 26 26 27
Electricity 22 28 35 43 53 65 75 88 101 117 133 153
Others 1 1 1 4 7 10 14 18 25 28 33 39
Total 124 136 151 168 185 197 205 217 232 251 277 314
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 40 47 56 71 91 112 126 151 195 232 240
Oil 72 89 99 105 96 83 62 41 31 23 16 11
Gas 33 38 42 43 52 52 58 77 80 72 81 99
Nuclear 6 7 9 11 13 17 19 25 31 36 42 50
Biomass 6 6 6 8 12 16 21 29 32 35 37 41
Other Renewables 4 6 7 11 15 21 27 32 39 43 48 55
Total 159 185 209 233 259 280 300 328 363 404 457 496
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.7 10.1 13.0
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.2
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 64.2 102.2 143.7 188.3 235.3 284.9 339.0 401.1 473.9 553.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.61 3.98 4.33 4.58 4.83 5.08 5.74 6.70 7.86 8.06 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.61 3.98 4.33 4.58 4.83 5.08 5.74 6.70 7.86 8.06
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 72 72 78 89 99 111 126 149 176 175 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 11.0 5.9 4.0 3.1 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.1 5.7
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16
CO MtCO 179 161 170 180 185 200 208 226 223 229 233 243
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 36 35 35 30 27 25 24 24 26
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 22 25
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data
REF - A2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 418 421 438 454 473 507 519 551 568 622 684 706
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 5.7 8.5 12.5 14.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.6 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.2 9.0 10.9 13.0 12.5 12.8 13.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 13 15 18 22 21 21 24 29 33 38 45
Gas 14 14 16 17 18 18 20 19 18 18 19 19
Electricity 6 6 7 9 11 15 19 24 27 31 37 43
Others 7 6 5 7 10 13 14 18 21 22 24 24
Total 50 43 46 53 62 67 74 85 94 104 117 131
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 11 11 13 17 18 23 34 47 50 64 82
Oil 20 18 18 20 21 18 13 12 9 6 5 2
Gas 27 28 30 33 39 45 52 47 35 39 45 51
Nuclear 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 4 5 7 9 10
Biomass 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 11 18 28 26 24
Other Renewables 1 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 16 19 22 27
Total 70 60 62 70 84 95 107 121 131 148 170 195
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.4 30.7 42.7 56.2 71.0 87.2 104.7 122.8 143.6 169.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.96 1.09 1.31 1.40 1.54 1.71 1.78 1.86 2.30 2.84 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.96 1.09 1.31 1.40 1.54 1.71 1.78 1.86 2.30 2.84
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 41 44 51 58 66 69 72 78 94 113 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.9 12.5 15.3 18.2 20.7 23.3 18.2 11.8 6.2 6.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 13 20 27 31 37 41 44 48 52
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 7 10 12 15 19 24 28 32 36 38
CO MtCO 69 41 43 51 61 68 75 82 100 114 145 183
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 19 21 24 23 20 20 21 25 32
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data
ASIA - A2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2791 3295 3801 4308 4779 5500 5764 6137 6333 6858 7214 7340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.3 7.6 12.6 15.0 20.0 23.1 34.9 50.5 57.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 7.4 10.3 14.3 19.5 27.3 36.8 47.5 57.1 66.1 74.7 79.9
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 17 17 15 14 12 11 11 10 10 9
Solids 19 19 15 12 9 21 29 28 18 6 4 2
Liquids 13 26 42 61 85 93 105 104 119 133 155 180
Gas 2 4 8 17 21 19 26 46 43 53 49 45
Electricity 4 6 10 17 25 35 46 58 75 96 114 131
Others 1 4 7 11 17 25 35 44 53 62 71 78
Total 62 75 100 135 172 207 252 291 319 360 402 445
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 27 33 42 54 82 104 128 187 235 310 390
Oil 15 31 47 67 86 80 71 47 27 16 10 4
Gas 3 7 15 23 27 23 29 50 47 56 49 41
Nuclear 0 1 2 3 5 8 13 17 22 29 34 39
Biomass 24 21 24 29 36 47 63 77 77 79 82 84
Other Renewables 1 3 6 9 14 22 31 42 57 73 81 90
Total 74 90 125 173 222 262 312 361 417 489 566 648
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.9 9.4 12.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.1 71.3 109.2 153.2 202.0 255.3 316.5 389.3 477.3 583.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.36 3.16 3.93 4.48 4.97 5.48 6.61 7.90 9.72 11.69 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.22 0.17 0.12 0.09 0.05 0.01 -0.03 -0.08 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.62 3.42 4.15 4.66 5.10 5.57 6.66 7.91 9.69 11.62
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 153 190 232 283 319 356 394 444 487 523 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 27.8 36.7 44.3 52.9 47.2 40.7 30.8 27.5 26.8 26.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 11 18 27 38 54 77 100 130 167 204
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 11 15 20 25 32 42 49 56 64 67
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 16 20 27 34 43 49 55 62 67
CO MtCO 235 270 335 422 497 538 589 653 746 859 968 1107
NMVOC Mt 33 37 49 63 72 73 75 82 91 102 113 128
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 16 19 21 23 25 28 33 38 43
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data
ALM - A2 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1222 1530 1974 2417 2846 3578 3862 4250 4458 5025 5394 5526
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.4 3.4 5.1 7.8 11.5 19.3 23.0 30.6 35.4 52.9 74.7 83.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.2 7.7 11.2 15.7 20.4 29.4 37.5 46.1 52.0 56.7 62.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 8 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Solids 1 7 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3
Liquids 17 26 36 54 68 71 83 96 125 145 178 183
Gas 4 6 11 19 27 45 58 64 57 59 50 70
Electricity 3 5 8 14 20 33 45 61 75 92 113 133
Others 0 1 3 6 10 18 25 33 39 45 52 59
Total 39 53 71 101 134 174 219 262 303 350 402 454
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 5 7 11 15 19 34 53 73 90 129 159
Oil 21 34 44 62 71 62 59 46 42 41 34 30
Gas 8 13 22 36 55 89 107 119 107 118 107 98
Nuclear 0 1 1 2 4 7 12 17 21 26 31 37
Biomass 14 13 12 12 18 31 50 78 117 129 141 151
Other Renewables 2 3 7 11 16 26 35 45 53 60 75 107
Total 49 69 93 134 179 234 296 358 412 463 517 582
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.5 5.5 6.7 7.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.8 62.9 95.4 133.0 175.1 220.8 267.1 314.3 364.3 418.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.40 2.10 2.71 3.19 3.77 4.18 4.25 4.65 5.02 5.61 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.79 0.68 0.51 0.33 0.20 0.13 0.06 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.25 2.97 3.54 3.98 4.45 4.69 4.58 4.85 5.16 5.67
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 99 112 128 163 187 207 212 229 235 259 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 15.6 21.7 27.6 29.4 30.6 30.2 29.1 28.1 27.0 26.9
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 19 32 49 69 98 139 181 233 295 336
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 8 12 16 21 26 34 39 45 50 52
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 7 10 13 18 23 29 32 37 41 43
CO MtCO 396 404 424 448 503 591 712 848 1007 1048 1081 1113
NMVOC Mt 48 55 68 86 101 108 113 112 112 115 119 125
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 12 15 18 20 22 24 27 29 32
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data