IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1T AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.6 37.7 56.3 89.2 127.4 182.0 235.8 305.5 378.2 447.3 529.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 48 34 27 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 36 46 59 76 76 76 58 45 35 29 24
Liquids 111 118 130 148 177 205 239 260 283 299 305 311
Gas 51 58 84 113 146 167 191 200 210 219 227 235
Electricity 38 48 63 82 115 180 282 370 484 573 614 657
Others
Total 285 307 356 430 532 647 787 901 1032 1128 1176 1226
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 89 116 142 174 159 146 112 86 68 57 48
Oil 143 158 176 186 183 168 158 141 126 116 110 104
Gas 73 99 142 190 244 284 336 344 355 366 378 390
Nuclear 6 11 17 27 43 68 116 114 111 110 111 112
Biomass 50 48 38 47 81 120 179 215 258 289 302 315
Other Renewables 10 11 14 20 34 70 151 249 409 550 603 663
Total 376 416 502 611 758 868 1086 1174 1345 1500 1561 1632
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.3 8.1 9.1 10.2 11.1 11.7 12.4
Oil 0.1 1.6 3.3 5.1 7.0 8.5 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.3 15.4 16.6
Gas 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.4 11.8 14.7 18.3 22.1 25.7 29.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 164.2 270.9 389.2 508.3 623.0 731.8 832.4 927.0 1018.2 1106.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1437 1486 1548 1573 1533 1434 1341 1251 1167 1076 981 895
Grasslands 3290 3289 3481 3846 4193 4145 4098 4062 4027 3964 3875 3788
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 66 328 494 745 813 888 949 993 1039
Forest 4249 4122 3965 3801 3709 3786 3864 3898 3932 3980 4042 4106
Others 3966 4046 3948 3655 3179 3033 2894 2908 2922 2966 3039 3114
Total 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.37 9.79 11.28 11.32 11.43 10.49 9.66 9.14 8.85 8.58
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.44 1.73 0.87 0.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.03 0.15 0.12 0.08
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.81 11.52 12.15 11.67 11.28 10.49 9.63 9.29 8.97 8.66
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 393 466 528 509 492 442 397 358 323 291
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 87.4 100.9 91.5 69.3 64.3 46.9 35.7 30.7 29.0 27.4
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1030 1160 1161 1202 1244 1294 1347 1402 1460 1520
NMVOC Mt 139 141 163 188 213 209 206 195 186 167 138 114
NOx  MtN 31 32 40 49 52 50 49 47 45 43 41 40
OECD90 - A1T AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.4 25.2 31.0 38.1 45.5 54.3 64.2 76.0 89.3 104.0 121.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2
Liquids 64 72 68 69 70 71 72 72 72 73 75 76
Gas 25 32 38 44 47 45 43 40 38 36 36 35
Electricity 22 27 30 33 37 46 58 72 90 105 115 126
Others
Total 127 142 146 156 165 173 181 194 207 219 229 239
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 36 35 31 27 26 24 18 13 10 8 7
Oil 76 87 82 80 68 52 40 31 24 22 22 23
Gas 34 51 59 65 68 68 67 62 58 55 54 52
Nuclear 5 8 11 14 18 20 22 21 20 19 20 20
Biomass 6 1 0 3 11 19 34 41 49 55 58 60
Other Renewables 6 6 7 9 13 21 32 50 77 102 114 128
Total 167 189 194 203 205 205 220 223 242 264 276 291
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 61.4 91.8 120.4 146.6 171.0 192.7 211.3 227.4 242.2 256.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 410 402 394 377 353 327 302 281 261 237 208 183
Grasslands 787 762 764 792 827 813 799 794 790 775 750 727
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 19 67 102 156 165 174 182 189 195
Forest 1056 1066 1079 1099 1127 1156 1185 1196 1208 1229 1261 1294
Others 886 910 903 853 765 731 697 702 706 715 727 740
Total 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.14 3.05 2.82 2.61 2.41 2.04 1.72 1.55 1.48 1.41
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.05 -0.09 -0.08 -0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.07
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.06 3.00 2.72 2.53 2.34 2.01 1.70 1.52 1.44 1.34
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 72 71 70 61 53 50 47 44 41 39
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 170 178 192 199 206 210 215 222 234 245
NMVOC Mt 42 36 34 33 31 26 21 14 8 5 4 3
NOx  MtN 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
REF - A1T AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.1 12.4 15.6 19.6 24.0 28.6 34.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1
Liquids 19 10 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11
Gas 19 13 18 20 22 25 28 26 24 22 21 20
Electricity 8 9 10 11 12 18 26 31 37 40 40 39
Others
Total 58 40 39 42 46 56 67 70 74 75 73 72
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 8 8 9 10 10 10 7 5 4 4 4
Oil 22 13 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4
Gas 26 22 27 29 30 32 34 31 27 26 25 25
Nuclear 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 9 8 8 9 10
Biomass 2 4 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 13 13 14
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 6 14 21 31 37 34 32
Total 71 51 50 52 57 66 83 83 89 93 91 90
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.3 29.6 39.0 48.4 57.6 66.1 73.1 79.1 84.9 90.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 279 284 295 299 308 300 292 273 255 235 215 196
Grasslands 346 356 398 462 550 565 581 577 574 566 553 541
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 6 11 24 30 38 46 52 59
Forest 960 961 954 960 953 958 963 974 985 997 1009 1021
Others 720 703 657 585 488 466 445 448 451 459 473 488
Total 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.78 0.66 0.61 0.61 0.60
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.01 0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.94 0.92 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.76 0.63 0.58 0.58 0.58
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 59 65 68 59 51 49 48 45 43 41
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 12.2 10.8 7.5 4.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 39 40 43 46 49 50 51 52 54 55
NMVOC Mt 16 13 13 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 4
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
ASIA - A1T AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3556 3851 4147 4183 4220 4016 3822 3541 3194 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.7 12.2 26.2 40.6 62.9 85.5 116.4 147.7 174.9 207.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 24 17 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 15 20 29 39 53 52 51 39 31 24 20 16
Liquids 11 16 23 29 41 49 59 67 77 83 83 83
Gas 2 4 8 16 29 36 45 53 63 73 82 91
Electricity 5 7 13 22 40 67 111 148 197 236 254 272
Others
Total 61 70 91 118 166 210 265 315 373 417 439 462
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 38 58 79 108 92 79 62 48 38 31 25
Oil 17 24 35 40 44 37 32 28 25 22 20 18
Gas 4 9 18 33 58 76 99 111 125 138 151 165
Nuclear 0 1 3 5 13 25 47 47 46 46 45 45
Biomass 28 24 19 17 17 26 41 49 59 66 69 73
Other Renewables 1 2 2 4 9 23 58 98 166 227 251 278
Total 80 97 135 178 250 281 357 395 469 537 568 604
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.6 6.0 7.4 9.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.9 76.8 119.8 166.4 210.9 253.5 294.3 333.3 371.0 407.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 390 408 432 448 432 401 372 349 328 307 286 267
Grasslands 521 523 546 584 620 618 615 611 606 599 589 580
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 21 88 123 172 189 209 224 233 242
Forest 527 490 453 420 406 419 432 437 442 448 456 464
Others 576 593 582 540 469 446 423 426 428 435 448 462
Total 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.59 3.36 4.51 4.40 4.29 4.06 3.85 3.69 3.57 3.45
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.39 0.44 0.27 0.14 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.98 3.81 4.78 4.54 4.36 4.16 3.99 3.83 3.70 3.58
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 156 196 238 235 233 197 167 146 131 118
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 42.2 54.5 45.9 20.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 342 397 421 444 468 484 500 512 522 532
NMVOC Mt 33 37 48 61 73 73 73 74 76 68 55 43
NOx  MtN 7 9 13 17 20 20 19 18 17 15 14 13
ALM - A1T AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.6 32.1 52.4 69.8 93.0 117.2 139.8 166.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 18 17 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 3 5 9 10 12 9 7 6 5 4
Liquids 17 21 31 43 59 76 99 111 124 133 137 141
Gas 4 8 19 33 48 60 75 80 84 87 88 89
Electricity 4 6 11 17 26 47 87 118 159 191 205 220
Others
Total 40 55 80 115 156 206 274 321 377 417 435 454
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 7 14 22 29 31 33 26 20 16 14 12
Oil 27 34 48 58 63 71 79 75 72 67 63 59
Gas 9 18 38 64 88 109 135 140 145 147 148 148
Nuclear 0 0 1 3 6 15 37 37 37 37 36 36
Biomass 14 18 19 27 50 69 96 115 138 154 161 168
Other Renewables 2 2 3 5 9 21 47 80 135 184 203 225
Total 57 80 124 179 246 316 427 472 545 606 625 648
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.1 6.6 8.1 9.5 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 39.6 72.7 110.1 146.9 183.5 219.5 253.8 287.1 320.1 352.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 357 392 426 449 441 406 374 348 323 297 272 248
Grasslands 1636 1647 1773 2009 2196 2149 2103 2080 2057 2024 1982 1941
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 26 167 257 393 428 466 497 520 543
Forest 1706 1605 1478 1322 1223 1253 1284 1291 1297 1305 1316 1327
Others 1784 1840 1806 1677 1456 1391 1328 1333 1338 1357 1390 1424
Total 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.71 2.45 3.02 3.39 3.80 3.60 3.42 3.29 3.20 3.11
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 1.11 1.35 0.66 0.28 -0.15 -0.05 -0.11 0.06 0.05 0.05
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.82 3.79 3.69 3.67 3.65 3.55 3.31 3.35 3.25 3.16
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 106 133 152 154 155 145 136 123 108 94
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 20.2 25.7 28.8 35.8 44.2 28.0 17.8 13.7 12.8 12.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 479 545 506 513 521 550 582 615 650 688
NMVOC Mt 48 55 68 84 99 101 103 100 97 88 75 63
NOx  MtN 7 8 12 17 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21