IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1V2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 5953 6597 7228 7725 8113 8393 8413 8359 8229 8001 7780
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 36.7 48.4 67.6 91.5 120.2 157.1 197.2 240.8 287.8 339.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 56 68 81 98 110 119 97 82 75 72 68
Liquids 121 123 130 143 145 164 201 232 262 292 315 337
Gas 52 62 77 97 108 113 112 129 148 168 170 172
Electricity 35 52 80 117 163 214 272 325 374 420 460 501
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 253 293 355 438 513 602 705 783 866 955 1016 1078
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 112 137 163 220 264 295 258 232 217 210 203
Oil 131 132 139 151 140 154 195 236 273 308 332 356
Gas 70 84 122 183 221 252 277 328 370 405 403 401
Nuclear 24 25 32 44 62 80 98 98 104 115 128 140
Biomass 0 6 11 17 24 30 37 49 54 54 53 51
Other Renewables 24 24 27 31 39 51 66 89 110 129 148 167
Total 336 384 468 589 705 831 968 1057 1144 1227 1273 1318
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.0 8.4 11.1 13.8 16.2 18.5 20.6 22.7
Oil 0.1 1.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 7.2 8.9 11.2 13.7 16.6 19.8 23.1
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.5 7.9 10.5 13.7 17.2 21.0 25.0 29.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 161.4 264.6 388.4 529.0 683.3 846.2 1012.7 1181.9 1349.4 1511.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1456 1457 1477 1472 1439 1378 1226 1081 943 847 752
Grasslands 3209 3344 3588 3941 4316 4609 4820 4651 4417 4119 3975 3832
Energy Biomass 0 2 5 11 14 18 20 31 31 20 15 10
Forest 4173 4215 4142 3957 3630 3376 3193 3517 3876 4272 4349 4425
Others 4310 4148 3971 3779 3732 3723 3753 3739 3758 3810 3978 4145
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.18 9.91 11.81 13.54 15.39 15.95 16.62 17.39 17.79 18.22
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.05 1.51 1.52 1.24 0.71 0.53 0.18 -0.35 -1.32 -2.29
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.23 11.42 13.34 14.78 16.10 16.49 16.80 17.04 16.47 15.93
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 353 400 453 504 541 545 550 556 565 574
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.7 12.4 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.2 17.2
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 76.3 82.8 86.0 81.7 69.9 49.2 35.3 28.2 27.0 25.7
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A1V2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 870 893 906 902 879 851 806 763 722 683 646
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 24.3 27.8 28.7 31.5 33.5 35.7 37.9 40.2 42.6 45.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 6 6 5 5
Liquids 72 71 68 63 57 47 49 49 49 50 50 50
Gas 27 35 42 48 48 43 39 41 44 48 47 46
Electricity 22 27 33 38 40 45 49 49 50 50 51 51
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 145 155 160 155 145 146 147 149 153 152 152
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 44 43 34 36 41 43 38 35 32 32 32
Oil 76 75 71 65 57 43 44 43 43 44 44 44
Gas 34 45 61 81 80 75 69 72 75 77 74 71
Nuclear 20 15 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 12
Biomass 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5
Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 16 18
Total 182 193 201 206 199 185 184 182 182 184 182 181
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.9 7.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.3 98.2 133.0 165.8 196.7 226.5 255.3 282.7 308.2 331.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 407 408 410 406 386 362 318 281 251 226 201
Grasslands 796 820 866 933 966 1049 1082 1048 1008 962 936 911
Energy Biomass 0 2 3 3 3 5 5 7 7 5 4 2
Forest 921 931 922 894 869 811 792 871 943 1009 1022 1035
Others 998 963 924 883 878 873 881 878 883 895 935 974
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.29 3.19 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.88 2.87 2.82 2.78
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.24 0.23 0.14 0.03 0.02 -0.06 -0.21 -0.37 -0.52
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.44 3.53 3.42 3.14 3.03 2.94 2.82 2.65 2.45 2.26
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 82 92 96 110 120 127 135 142 146 151
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.1 7.9 6.5 5.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A1V2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 446 460 470 466 454 434 408 380 352 326 301
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.2 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.7 12.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 3
Liquids 18 13 11 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13
Gas 19 16 16 21 23 23 21 21 22 22 20 19
Electricity 6 9 15 24 29 35 40 41 40 39 40 40
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 56 48 52 67 75 80 84 83 81 78 77 75
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 19 22 26 37 43 44 36 29 22 18 13
Oil 20 15 13 15 10 8 10 11 13 14 15 16
Gas 26 22 26 40 45 46 44 45 45 43 39 36
Nuclear 3 4 7 11 14 15 15 13 11 11 11 11
Biomass 0 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 3
Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 5 7 9 11 12 13 14 15
Total 70 64 73 99 113 122 127 122 115 107 100 94
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.8 33.2 49.0 67.0 85.7 103.7 120.2 134.6 146.2 154.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 291 300 312 318 315 304 265 227 189 170 152
Grasslands 395 410 452 521 601 662 704 652 590 519 505 491
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 3 5 6 6 7 6 2 1 -1
Forest 1007 1016 996 946 867 808 770 863 960 1063 1066 1069
Others 691 660 628 595 588 587 593 591 595 605 635 666
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.01 1.36 1.61 1.75 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.30 1.18 1.07
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.06 0.10 0.08 0.01 -0.17 -0.35
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.04 1.44 1.73 1.87 1.86 1.74 1.56 1.31 1.01 0.72
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 49 67 81 91 97 101 99 93 91 90
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 11.5 12.6 14.8 14.8 12.6 7.5 4.2 2.7 2.5 2.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A1V2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3165 3517 3847 4078 4237 4322 4242 4123 3965 3779 3597
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.3 11.1 20.7 32.7 46.9 63.7 81.5 100.2 119.0 139.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 30 42 55 70 81 88 71 60 55 52 49
Liquids 14 19 25 34 42 53 69 80 91 101 108 114
Gas 2 5 9 13 17 19 21 27 32 38 38 39
Electricity 4 11 22 40 64 91 122 152 179 203 219 236
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 64 98 142 192 244 299 330 362 397 417 438
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 43 65 91 125 151 168 141 124 116 112 107
Oil 16 20 27 37 41 51 67 86 102 113 119 125
Gas 3 8 20 37 57 77 96 121 140 153 150 146
Nuclear 1 4 8 14 25 36 48 49 53 58 63 68
Biomass 0 2 5 9 13 16 20 27 31 31 30 29
Other Renewables 3 4 5 6 10 15 23 35 46 56 65 74
Total 49 81 130 195 270 346 422 460 495 527 538 549
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.3 8.6 9.9 11.0 12.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.2 7.3
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.4 7.9 9.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.0 75.8 121.5 178.6 245.6 317.0 388.5 460.9 532.9 603.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 397 406 415 420 417 406 366 326 286 259 232
Grasslands 508 523 553 598 642 678 706 698 682 658 640 622
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 4 6 8 9 16 18 13 11 9
Forest 1168 1146 1108 1052 1001 964 943 983 1038 1108 1156 1204
Others 664 635 606 575 569 569 575 573 577 586 615 644
Total 2729 2702 2674 2645 2638 2636 2639 2637 2641 2652 2681 2710
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.61 3.70 4.90 5.99 6.99 7.03 7.15 7.35 7.33 7.31
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.19 0.26 0.28 0.25 0.16 0.10 0.03 -0.06 -0.21 -0.37
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.80 3.96 5.18 6.24 7.15 7.13 7.18 7.30 7.12 6.94
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 133 144 160 174 187 174 169 171 171 172
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 34.9 44.6 46.3 42.4 32.7 20.9 13.2 9.6 9.0 8.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A1V2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1472 1727 2004 2282 2543 2785 2957 3092 3190 3213 3236
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 13.9 22.8 33.9 50.5 69.5 91.0 115.5 143.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 6 8 10 12 11 10 10 11 11
Liquids 17 21 26 33 39 51 70 89 109 128 145 161
Gas 5 7 10 15 22 27 31 40 50 61 64 68
Electricity 3 6 10 15 28 43 62 83 106 128 151 174
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 36 50 69 96 132 175 223 274 327 370 413
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 8 11 20 30 40 42 44 46 48 51
Oil 20 22 27 34 40 53 74 95 116 137 154 171
Gas 7 9 15 25 40 54 67 90 111 132 140 148
Nuclear 0 2 4 6 11 17 23 26 30 36 43 50
Biomass 0 1 1 2 4 5 7 10 12 14 14 14
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 14 18 23 30 37 44 52 59
Total 35 46 64 89 129 178 235 293 351 409 452 494
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.2 5.4 6.9 8.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.3 7.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.2 57.4 84.9 117.5 155.4 199.0 248.6 303.8 362.1 421.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 360 343 340 333 321 306 277 247 216 192 168
Grasslands 1510 1591 1718 1890 2074 2220 2327 2253 2137 1980 1894 1808
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forest 3641 3597 3494 3329 3150 3010 2911 3011 3158 3351 3464 3576
Others 1957 1890 1813 1726 1702 1694 1704 1697 1704 1724 1793 1861
Total 7499 7438 7367 7285 7258 7246 7248 7238 7246 7271 7342 7413
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.23 1.56 2.11 2.79 3.60 4.36 5.12 5.88 6.46 7.07
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.71 0.93 0.89 0.73 0.46 0.31 0.13 -0.09 -0.57 -1.05
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.94 2.49 3.00 3.52 4.06 4.67 5.24 5.78 5.88 6.02
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 89 98 116 129 137 142 147 151 156 162
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.4
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 13.5 10.8 8.6 8.2 7.7
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN