IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1V1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 38.1 52.8 80.2 117.3 164.2 226.6 294.1 366.9 445.1 531.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 54 64 75 87 96 101 78 63 55 50 46
Liquids 121 121 129 146 152 177 221 256 289 318 334 350
Gas 52 61 75 96 110 117 116 136 156 175 176 177
Electricity 35 51 76 112 161 218 283 338 387 429 459 488
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 253 286 344 429 510 607 721 808 894 978 1019 1061
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 108 130 153 206 250 284 249 223 205 192 179
Oil 131 130 137 152 147 167 214 259 299 333 351 369
Gas 70 82 118 179 223 259 287 343 387 417 408 399
Nuclear 24 24 30 41 60 81 102 101 105 116 126 135
Biomass 0 5 11 16 23 30 37 48 54 54 52 50
Other Renewables 24 24 27 31 39 51 68 91 112 131 146 162
Total 336 374 453 573 698 838 992 1091 1179 1255 1274 1293
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.7 5.7 7.9 10.5 13.1 15.5 17.6 19.6 21.5
Oil 0.1 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.3 9.2 11.7 14.5 17.5 21.0 24.5
Gas 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.4 7.9 10.5 13.8 17.5 21.4 25.5 29.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 161.0 263.6 386.8 528.1 685.7 854.0 1027.3 1203.4 1376.1 1540.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1466 1474 1495 1483 1442 1373 1212 1055 903 791 679
Grasslands 3209 3348 3603 3974 4374 4690 4923 4749 4493 4155 3951 3748
Energy Biomass 0 3 6 8 10 11 12 22 21 10 6 3
Forest 4173 4214 4140 3952 3628 3372 3184 3515 3904 4349 4496 4643
Others 4310 4132 3941 3735 3669 3648 3673 3666 3690 3747 3920 4093
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.08 9.81 11.74 13.70 15.80 16.62 17.37 18.06 18.20 18.36
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.54 1.56 1.27 0.74 0.52 0.16 -0.36 -1.37 -2.37
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.16 11.35 13.29 14.97 16.53 17.14 17.53 17.70 16.83 15.98
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 355 405 462 523 567 585 599 611 625 640
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.3 10.8 12.6 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.3 16.0 16.7
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 74.2 79.5 79.6 72.7 58.9 41.5 31.4 28.6 28.5 28.5
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A1V1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.6 31.6 34.5 44.7 53.6 63.3 74.4 86.7 102.2 119.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 12 11 11 11 12 9 7 7 7 7
Liquids 72 70 69 69 63 55 59 61 64 68 72 75
Gas 27 35 44 54 54 53 49 54 60 67 69 71
Electricity 22 27 33 41 44 53 61 64 67 70 74 79
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 144 159 175 173 173 181 188 198 211 221 231
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 44 43 36 39 48 54 51 48 42 37 32
Oil 76 75 73 70 63 50 52 52 56 62 68 74
Gas 34 45 63 90 91 92 88 95 103 109 110 111
Nuclear 20 15 13 13 14 14 15 13 14 15 17 19
Biomass 0 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 7
Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 16 18 21 24
Total 182 192 206 223 221 219 226 234 243 254 261 268
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.9
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.2 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.4 7.5 8.5 9.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.8 100.7 138.7 176.2 213.5 251.2 289.1 326.5 363.1 398.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 410 412 414 409 386 359 313 273 240 211 182
Grasslands 796 820 867 937 972 1062 1100 1064 1019 967 932 896
Energy Biomass 0 3 5 5 6 8 9 13 12 9 6 3
Forest 921 931 922 894 870 812 792 873 951 1026 1053 1080
Others 998 959 917 872 866 856 862 861 867 880 921 962
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.41 3.58 3.55 3.56 3.72 3.78 3.86 3.94 3.99 4.04
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.03 0.01 -0.08 -0.23 -0.39 -0.55
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.54 3.82 3.79 3.71 3.75 3.79 3.78 3.71 3.60 3.49
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 84 97 104 127 145 163 174 179 182 185
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 12.5 6.2 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.2
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A1V1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.9 10.0 13.6 17.7 21.8 26.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 2
Liquids 18 11 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11
Gas 19 14 13 15 17 16 14 15 16 17 16 15
Electricity 6 8 11 17 21 25 28 30 31 33 33 34
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 56 44 41 49 54 57 58 59 61 64 63 62
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 17 19 27 32 34 26 21 18 18 17
Oil 20 13 10 11 7 6 8 10 12 13 13 13
Gas 26 20 21 29 32 33 31 32 34 34 32 29
Nuclear 3 4 6 8 10 10 11 9 8 9 9 9
Biomass 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 13 14
Total 70 57 58 73 83 90 93 91 89 90 87 85
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.1 30.3 42.7 56.6 71.0 84.9 98.2 110.7 121.7 130.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 294 305 317 321 317 304 263 221 180 157 134
Grasslands 395 410 454 527 612 678 725 671 602 517 491 465
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forest 1007 1016 996 945 866 808 769 865 970 1086 1104 1122
Others 691 657 623 587 577 574 579 579 584 594 625 657
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.87 1.05 1.22 1.33 1.36 1.26 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.15
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.07 0.11 0.09 0.03 -0.16 -0.35
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 1.13 1.34 1.44 1.43 1.37 1.29 1.20 1.00 0.80
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 48 64 78 89 98 99 101 106 113 120
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.2 10.4 11.8 11.2 8.6 4.6 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A1V1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.5 11.7 23.9 40.4 61.1 86.2 112.1 138.8 165.9 195.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 29 39 51 60 66 68 52 41 35 31 27
Liquids 14 19 25 35 44 57 74 86 96 104 106 108
Gas 2 5 9 13 18 21 23 29 33 37 36 35
Electricity 4 10 22 39 64 93 124 149 169 184 192 200
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 62 95 138 186 237 290 316 339 359 364 370
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 42 62 87 116 137 149 122 102 92 85 77
Oil 16 20 27 37 42 54 73 92 105 112 114 115
Gas 3 8 20 38 59 79 99 121 135 141 132 124
Nuclear 1 4 8 14 25 37 50 49 50 53 55 57
Biomass 0 2 5 8 12 16 19 25 27 27 25 24
Other Renewables 3 4 5 6 10 16 24 35 45 53 59 65
Total 49 79 126 190 264 339 415 443 464 477 470 462
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.4 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.6 10.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.4 7.7 9.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.8 75.2 120.0 175.5 240.1 308.4 375.7 442.0 505.6 565.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 400 410 420 424 419 407 365 321 276 243 211
Grasslands 508 524 555 603 653 694 726 719 702 674 649 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 6 6 2 1 -1
Forest 1168 1144 1102 1044 990 952 929 973 1034 1113 1172 1231
Others 664 632 601 568 559 557 563 562 567 577 607 637
Total 2729 2699 2669 2638 2628 2624 2627 2625 2630 2642 2672 2702
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.58 3.64 4.77 5.80 6.72 6.69 6.66 6.62 6.39 6.17
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.28 0.25 0.16 0.10 0.03 -0.06 -0.23 -0.39
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.77 3.90 5.05 6.04 6.87 6.79 6.68 6.56 6.17 5.78
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 134 145 161 176 189 180 174 173 174 174
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 34.8 45.1 44.1 37.4 25.1 16.4 11.3 9.8 9.5 9.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A1V1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 15.4 27.2 42.5 67.0 94.1 123.7 155.2 190.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 6 9 12 15 13 11 11 10 10
Liquids 17 21 26 33 40 56 78 99 118 136 146 156
Gas 5 6 9 13 21 26 29 38 46 54 55 56
Electricity 3 6 9 15 29 47 70 96 120 143 159 176
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 35 49 67 99 141 192 245 296 344 371 399
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 5 8 11 22 34 48 50 52 53 52 52
Oil 20 22 27 34 41 57 82 105 127 146 156 166
Gas 7 9 14 23 40 55 70 95 116 133 134 136
Nuclear 0 2 4 5 12 19 27 29 34 40 45 50
Biomass 0 1 1 2 4 6 9 12 15 15 15 15
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 15 19 24 33 40 47 53 60
Total 35 45 62 86 133 190 258 324 383 434 456 478
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.4 8.9
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 6.3 7.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.2 57.4 85.4 119.8 161.1 209.5 264.3 324.3 385.8 445.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 363 347 344 334 320 303 272 240 207 180 152
Grasslands 1510 1594 1727 1906 2102 2257 2373 2296 2170 1996 1880 1763
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0
Forest 3641 3591 3480 3308 3121 2975 2868 2970 3128 3341 3487 3633
Others 1957 1884 1800 1707 1674 1661 1668 1664 1673 1695 1766 1837
Total 7499 7432 7354 7266 7231 7213 7212 7204 7213 7240 7313 7385
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.22 1.54 2.20 3.02 4.00 4.88 5.66 6.32 6.65 7.00
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.72 0.95 0.91 0.76 0.48 0.31 0.12 -0.09 -0.58 -1.08
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.94 2.49 3.11 3.77 4.48 5.19 5.77 6.23 6.07 5.92
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 89 99 118 130 134 144 150 154 157 160
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.8 15.3 16.1 17.0 12.4 9.6 8.4 8.3 8.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN