IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1C MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 38.1 52.7 79.7 116.4 162.8 224.0 290.2 361.5 437.8 521.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 57 73 94 118 140 162 129 105 89 80 72
Liquids 121 126 137 157 170 205 260 301 338 370 388 405
Gas 52 63 77 96 92 85 76 76 77 80 68 57
Electricity 35 54 86 134 209 299 402 509 608 698 763 829
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 253 298 374 480 589 729 899 1015 1127 1236 1300 1363
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 116 152 199 353 543 769 805 821 818 888 958
Oil 131 135 146 163 125 94 68 75 83 93 63 34
Gas 70 85 125 190 216 231 238 251 263 274 215 157
Nuclear 24 25 34 49 82 110 133 154 175 196 204 212
Biomass 0 6 12 19 35 54 78 123 159 186 209 232
Other Renewables 24 24 27 32 44 66 99 160 220 281 338 395
Total 336 391 496 653 854 1098 1384 1567 1721 1847 1918 1988
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.2 2.6 4.2 7.5 12.1 18.2 26.2 34.3 42.5 51.2 60.0
Oil 0.1 1.5 2.9 4.4 5.7 6.8 7.7 8.4 9.2 10.1 10.8 11.5
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.6 7.8 10.1 12.6 15.2 17.8 20.1 22.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 163.5 274.5 417.9 601.0 830.2 1088.4 1352.9 1618.4 1881.1 2141.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1466 1473 1494 1477 1432 1359 1194 1038 891 776 661
Grasslands 3209 3348 3601 3968 4357 4657 4869 4662 4402 4090 3855 3619
Energy Biomass 0 4 10 20 58 115 190 340 445 505 575 646
Forest 4173 4214 4140 3951 3623 3348 3126 3385 3693 4049 4192 4336
Others 4310 4132 3939 3732 3650 3613 3620 3583 3586 3630 3767 3903
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.58 10.99 14.54 19.10 24.45 25.66 26.42 26.72 27.13 27.70
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.55 1.60 1.38 0.92 0.61 0.22 -0.27 -1.04 -1.81
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.66 12.54 16.14 20.48 25.37 26.27 26.64 26.46 26.09 25.89
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 359 414 482 563 636 651 663 672 682 693
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.3 10.9 12.7 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.2
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 81.1 87.8 97.5 92.3 72.1 48.1 33.7 28.9 27.9 26.9
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A1C MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.5 31.5 34.3 44.4 53.1 62.6 73.3 85.3 100.4 116.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 14 14 15 17 19 16 13 12 12 12
Liquids 72 73 74 74 69 62 68 70 74 78 82 86
Gas 27 36 45 54 50 40 33 31 31 32 28 24
Electricity 22 28 37 48 54 71 85 95 106 118 130 141
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 150 170 189 187 190 205 212 224 239 251 263
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 47 49 47 59 98 130 163 203 248 344 441
Oil 76 78 77 75 61 25 11 5 3 2 2 1
Gas 34 47 67 94 92 83 76 73 72 72 51 31
Nuclear 20 16 14 16 17 19 19 21 23 27 30 32
Biomass 0 2 4 5 6 10 14 20 26 30 35 40
Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 11 13 16 23 31 39 50 61
Total 182 200 222 247 244 249 266 306 357 417 512 607
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 3.0 4.1 5.6 7.5 9.6 12.9 16.1
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 64.5 103.5 145.0 188.7 236.9 289.4 346.1 407.4 477.3 559.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 410 412 414 408 383 357 310 269 233 203 174
Grasslands 796 820 866 934 967 1050 1084 1043 996 945 901 857
Energy Biomass 0 4 7 10 16 37 53 83 105 119 138 157
Forest 921 931 921 894 869 806 779 845 910 972 995 1018
Others 998 959 917 872 863 847 850 842 843 854 885 917
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.55 3.86 3.93 4.39 4.99 5.39 5.93 6.60 7.88 9.29
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.25 0.25 0.18 0.08 0.05 -0.04 -0.20 -0.31 -0.43
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.69 4.11 4.18 4.57 5.07 5.44 5.88 6.39 7.57 8.86
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 84 97 104 126 145 159 178 201 236 270
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 14.0 4.8 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A1C MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.5 5.0 6.9 9.9 13.4 17.4 21.4 25.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 9 9 10 11 11 9 7 6 5 5
Liquids 18 12 9 10 11 13 14 16 17 18 18 18
Gas 19 15 13 15 15 13 11 11 10 10 8 6
Electricity 6 8 13 21 30 39 48 57 64 71 73 76
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 56 44 44 55 65 75 85 92 99 105 105 104
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 20 25 68 127 201 175 196 264 228 192
Oil 20 13 11 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 26 20 21 30 33 32 28 29 28 27 21 14
Nuclear 3 4 6 10 14 16 17 18 19 20 19 19
Biomass 0 1 1 2 5 7 10 16 20 23 25 27
Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 6 8 11 17 23 29 33 38
Total 70 58 63 84 129 190 267 254 286 362 326 290
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.5 9.7 12.0 14.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.4 31.8 48.8 74.5 110.3 149.8 188.7 233.0 277.8 314.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 294 304 316 320 315 303 263 224 186 162 138
Grasslands 395 410 453 525 604 666 710 655 593 524 491 458
Energy Biomass 0 0 2 5 16 29 44 70 86 91 97 102
Forest 1007 1016 996 945 864 800 752 827 912 1005 1031 1057
Others 691 657 622 586 573 567 569 562 563 571 597 622
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.94 1.23 1.97 2.91 4.05 3.67 3.93 4.84 4.20 3.60
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.02 -0.12 -0.26
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.97 1.31 2.09 3.03 4.14 3.76 4.01 4.87 4.08 3.34
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 49 69 94 123 154 141 149 178 160 143
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.4 10.9 14.4 14.6 11.4 6.0 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A1C MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.5 11.7 23.7 40.0 60.5 85.0 110.3 136.4 162.6 191.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 31 46 64 81 97 110 86 68 56 49 42
Liquids 14 19 27 37 49 66 88 102 113 122 124 127
Gas 2 5 9 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 13 11
Electricity 4 11 25 47 82 123 170 215 255 288 308 328
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 66 107 160 226 300 381 418 451 482 495 509
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 45 73 111 177 252 336 362 313 191 193 195
Oil 16 21 29 39 33 27 21 24 28 35 18 2
Gas 3 9 21 40 55 67 78 82 87 92 74 55
Nuclear 1 4 9 17 32 47 62 70 78 84 85 86
Biomass 0 2 5 9 17 26 35 51 64 73 80 86
Other Renewables 3 4 5 6 11 22 37 64 90 115 136 157
Total 49 85 142 223 327 442 568 653 661 590 586 581
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.6 5.8 8.5 12.1 15.3 18.0 20.0 21.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 43.0 80.3 134.4 208.0 302.3 409.4 514.9 607.5 688.5 764.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 400 410 420 418 409 392 346 303 263 229 195
Grasslands 508 524 555 602 648 685 714 704 687 662 632 603
Energy Biomass 0 0 2 5 18 32 49 79 99 109 126 143
Forest 1168 1144 1102 1043 986 942 910 936 976 1032 1079 1127
Others 664 632 600 568 555 550 553 547 548 556 579 601
Total 2729 2699 2669 2637 2625 2618 2618 2612 2613 2622 2645 2668
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.80 4.20 6.06 8.09 10.29 10.80 10.15 8.36 8.01 7.68
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.20 0.12 0.04 -0.03 -0.15 -0.27
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.00 4.47 6.36 8.36 10.49 10.92 10.19 8.33 7.87 7.41
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 135 148 164 183 206 217 197 145 147 149
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 38.8 52.8 57.3 50.9 33.6 21.4 14.0 11.3 10.4 9.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A1C MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 15.4 27.0 42.3 66.5 93.2 122.4 153.4 188.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 5 7 11 16 21 18 16 15 14 13
Liquids 17 22 28 36 46 64 90 113 134 153 164 175
Gas 5 7 10 14 17 19 18 19 20 22 19 16
Electricity 3 6 11 18 38 65 99 141 182 221 252 283
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 38 54 75 113 164 228 293 353 410 449 487
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 10 15 37 66 102 105 109 116 123 129
Oil 20 23 29 37 41 41 37 46 52 57 43 30
Gas 7 10 16 26 39 49 57 67 76 84 70 56
Nuclear 0 2 5 7 17 26 35 45 55 65 70 76
Biomass 0 1 1 3 6 11 19 35 49 60 70 79
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 16 23 34 55 76 98 119 140
Total 35 48 69 99 156 218 284 353 418 479 494 510
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.0 5.1 6.4 7.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.6 5.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.6 58.9 89.7 129.8 180.6 239.7 303.3 370.4 437.6 501.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 363 348 344 337 324 307 275 243 209 182 154
Grasslands 1510 1594 1727 1907 2105 2256 2361 2260 2126 1960 1830 1701
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 2 16 44 108 155 185 215 244
Forest 3641 3591 3480 3307 3114 2957 2834 2900 3020 3192 3321 3450
Others 1957 1883 1800 1707 1668 1649 1649 1631 1631 1649 1706 1762
Total 7499 7432 7354 7265 7226 7202 7195 7175 7175 7195 7254 7312
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.29 1.70 2.57 3.71 5.11 5.80 6.40 6.92 7.03 7.14
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.72 0.95 0.93 0.80 0.55 0.35 0.15 -0.06 -0.46 -0.86
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.01 2.65 3.51 4.51 5.67 6.15 6.55 6.87 6.57 6.28
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 90 101 121 131 132 134 139 147 139 130
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.9 16.2 18.8 19.9 19.8 13.6 9.6 7.9 7.2 6.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN