IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1C MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.8 57.0 91.3 135.4 187.1 254.1 322.9 393.2 469.6 550.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.4 45.7 67.2 98.7 139.0 186.4 246.8 313.2 382.0 456.6 535.0
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 27 19 16 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 56 72 82 89 79 72 68 60 55 44 26
Liquids 111 126 158 200 265 353 461 569 641 672 704 685
Gas 41 47 61 76 95 106 110 118 116 119 104 93
Electricity 35 46 62 93 145 209 292 395 493 588 668 726
Others 8 11 20 34 53 70 89 118 143 164 187 213
Total 275 313 393 501 656 824 1031 1268 1453 1599 1706 1743
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 112 146 194 261 353 463 601 750 872 985 1062
Oil 128 155 172 190 210 209 209 202 170 112 78 56
Gas 71 80 107 149 207 247 283 297 254 207 144 118
Nuclear 7 8 11 21 41 79 127 191 265 348 415 432
Biomass 46 44 52 68 95 133 178 228 287 330 359 376
Other Renewables 8 13 23 37 57 82 117 166 205 234 258 281
Total 352 411 511 659 870 1102 1377 1685 1931 2103 2239 2325
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.5 8.1 11.6 16.2 22.3 29.8 38.5 48.4
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.7 10.8 12.9 14.9 16.6 17.7 18.5
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.6 11.5 14.4 17.0 19.0 20.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 163.4 267.8 394.8 551.4 740.3 965.7 1224.8 1506.6 1805.6 2119.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420
Grasslands 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 74 158 288 418 492 566 581 538 495
Forest 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204
Others 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 3558 3400 3301 3203 3173 3213 3253
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.61 10.97 14.04 17.11 20.64 24.50 27.37 29.05 30.79 32.07 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.26 0.12 0.05 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.65 11.23 14.17 17.16 20.62 24.47 27.33 29.03 30.78 32.07
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 365 427 505 552 606 628 639 652 662 672 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 77.3 102.4 121.0 126.0 120.2 106.2 97.9 79.6 67.0 49.8
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1005 1165 1415 1805 2277 2758 3217 3547 3772 3766
NMVOC Mt 139 141 166 194 221 259 310 359 393 408 405 373
NOx  MtN 31 32 39 48 62 77 94 111 124 134 142 151
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
OECD90 - A1C MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.6 31.6 38.7 46.8 55.7 65.7 77.2 90.8 106.6 124.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.8 22.1 27.4 33.7 40.8 48.6 57.4 67.6 79.7 93.6 109.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 11 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 70 74 74 75 80 87 93 100 98 102 102
Gas 22 28 34 35 39 37 34 29 30 27 21 15
Electricity 22 29 36 44 53 61 75 90 106 124 141 158
Others 1 1 4 8 11 18 24 30 34 37 42 47
Total 124 138 155 164 181 197 220 242 269 285 306 322
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 46 57 69 80 91 97 102 125 144 183 223
Oil 72 83 81 72 60 46 39 34 29 20 15 12
Gas 33 41 50 60 70 69 75 75 83 75 59 37
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 13 27 41 56 59 64 65 60
Biomass 6 7 6 7 10 14 20 25 28 33 39 44
Other Renewables 4 5 9 12 15 19 26 37 44 48 54 58
Total 159 188 211 228 249 267 299 329 368 383 414 435
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.8 9.6 11.9
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 64.2 101.4 140.8 181.2 222.2 265.1 312.9 365.9 424.5 490.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 712 691 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.57 3.82 4.05 4.04 4.22 4.41 5.10 5.39 6.23 6.94 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.61 3.83 4.05 4.02 4.18 4.41 5.15 5.45 6.27 6.95
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 74 76 80 85 92 101 114 126 147 164 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 14.9 22.7 25.3 20.2 14.0 7.0 8.2 2.1 3.9 5.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 173 167 162 188 220 241 266 267 271 281
NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 36 33 34 35 38 44 43 39 35
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 15 15 15 16 16 20 22 25 28
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
REF - A1C MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.1 5.4 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.7 6.0 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 11 15 19 23 25 25 27 32 34 32
Gas 14 10 12 16 19 19 18 20 16 10 4 4
Electricity 6 5 6 8 14 19 23 27 32 37 42 45
Others 7 6 6 8 11 11 13 15 16 15 18 18
Total 50 36 38 48 65 73 80 87 91 95 98 98
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 13 15 21 26 31 37 49 70 104 146
Oil 20 14 13 15 17 19 19 12 9 6 5 4
Gas 27 21 22 30 41 45 47 62 61 48 19 12
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 1 2 5 6 7 7 8 8
Biomass 2 1 1 1 3 4 6 7 10 14 15 19
Other Renewables 1 1 2 3 5 6 8 10 13 15 17 19
Total 70 51 51 65 87 101 115 134 149 161 168 208
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.6 4.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.0 32.0 45.0 60.5 77.5 96.7 119.3 145.5 175.8 214.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 1.12 1.48 1.70 1.90 2.21 2.52 2.88 3.33 4.44 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.08 1.13 1.47 1.63 1.75 2.10 2.43 2.81 3.27 4.38
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 43 51 61 61 62 70 74 81 93 121 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 11.3 12.8 14.0 14.3 14.4 12.9 16.9 22.5 20.8 12.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 45 59 82 108 129 150 144 136 134 143
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 19 25 31 36 43 45 44 37 32
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 12 12 13
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ASIA - A1C MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 13.5 27.2 44.9 65.3 95.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.3 13.5 22.8 36.2 52.2 70.0 96.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 36 53 69 75 62 48 42 39 34 29 19
Liquids 13 23 39 59 93 143 199 259 281 292 295 262
Gas 2 3 6 10 12 18 26 31 34 34 29 23
Electricity 4 7 13 25 47 74 104 145 187 223 249 262
Others 1 3 6 11 18 23 28 37 47 58 67 85
Total 62 88 128 182 249 323 407 513 588 641 668 651
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 48 68 98 135 191 250 315 377 408 425 386
Oil 15 26 40 54 72 81 80 86 62 40 25 17
Gas 3 5 12 20 30 37 41 40 30 21 15 15
Nuclear 0 1 3 8 20 34 54 83 125 159 175 174
Biomass 24 22 27 34 44 58 77 97 116 134 143 142
Other Renewables 1 3 6 10 18 27 37 54 69 80 89 101
Total 74 105 156 226 319 427 538 676 778 842 871 834
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.7 8.2 11.3 15.3 19.7 24.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.7 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.8 77.0 123.7 186.9 267.6 365.9 479.9 602.6 728.4 848.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.74 4.03 5.54 7.28 8.87 10.80 12.13 12.59 12.70 11.28 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.22 -0.13 -0.12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.96 3.90 5.42 7.23 8.90 10.76 12.03 12.50 12.66 11.30
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 152 186 231 252 275 274 283 278 277 260 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 33.9 47.1 60.9 69.5 66.1 60.7 49.5 33.7 22.4 14.9
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 348 463 621 855 1131 1414 1647 1821 1930 1778
NMVOC Mt 33 37 49 66 80 101 128 157 180 193 197 168
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 17 24 32 40 48 52 56 60 58
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ALM - A1C MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.8 20.0 34.3 53.5 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.5 13.3 22.8 36.7 55.3 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 7 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 5 9 7 11 16 24 26 21 20 15 7
Liquids 17 23 34 53 78 107 150 193 233 251 274 289
Gas 4 6 10 15 24 31 32 38 37 48 50 51
Electricity 3 5 8 16 31 56 90 133 168 204 236 262
Others 0 2 4 8 12 18 26 36 47 55 60 64
Total 39 51 72 106 161 231 325 426 505 578 634 672
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 5 7 12 24 46 86 147 199 249 273 307
Oil 21 31 39 50 60 63 71 70 71 47 34 23
Gas 8 13 23 39 66 97 120 121 81 63 52 55
Nuclear 0 0 0 2 7 15 27 46 73 118 166 191
Biomass 14 14 18 26 38 56 75 99 133 150 162 171
Other Renewables 2 4 7 12 19 30 46 65 79 92 99 102
Total 49 67 94 141 214 307 425 547 636 718 786 849
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.1 5.6 7.4
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.6
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.5 57.4 85.3 122.8 173.1 238.0 312.6 392.6 476.9 567.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.40 2.01 2.97 4.09 5.65 7.09 7.62 8.20 8.53 9.42 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.00 2.37 3.22 4.28 5.78 7.20 7.72 8.28 8.59 9.45
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 97 114 134 155 178 184 169 167 145 126 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.1 16.7 17.9 19.1 22.7 22.6 20.2 18.2 16.8 13.9
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 438 476 550 654 798 953 1160 1323 1437 1564
NMVOC Mt 48 55 65 73 83 94 111 120 124 128 132 138
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 12 16 22 29 37 41 44 46 52
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data