IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5264 6117 6827 7537 8039 8526 8704 8527 8444 8022 7282 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 28.9 41.3 60.7 87.9 146.0 174.3 225.7 257.3 367.8 484.9 531.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 56 68 87 105 89 74 59 53 48 43 39 35
Liquids 123 177 243 349 398 447 496 494 492 486 476 465
Gas 51 63 93 154 196 237 278 268 257 229 183 137
Electricity 43 57 84 122 225 327 429 533 637 711 755 798
Others
Total 273 365 507 730 907 1085 1262 1348 1434 1469 1452 1436
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 97 118 154 212 368 523 679 673 667 669 680 691
Oil 141 202 283 381 302 223 143 87 31 3 2 1
Gas 74 87 126 206 278 349 421 391 361 286 166 47
Nuclear 8 14 18 26 72 117 163 191 218 252 292 332
Biomass 0 0 2 27 57 88 119 145 171 198 224 250
Other Renewables 6 9 16 23 44 65 86 173 259 312 329 346
Total 326 430 600 875 1121 1366 1611 1660 1708 1719 1693 1667
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.3 11.8 17.8 24.6 31.3 37.9 44.7 51.5
Oil 0.0 1.8 4.3 7.6 11.0 13.5 15.3 16.4 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0
Gas 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.0 9.2 13.1 17.1 20.8 24.0 26.2 27.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 170.8 306.0 488.7 709.7 960.5 1216.8 1454.8 1674.9 1878.2 2065.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 10.01 14.67 19.49 22.60 25.72 24.14 22.55 20.97 19.37 17.78
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.24 1.13 0.98 0.84 0.58 0.32 0.18 0.16 0.14
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 11.13 15.91 20.62 23.59 26.56 24.72 22.87 21.15 19.53 17.92
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 377 444 518 577 636 616 596 571 540 510
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.6 10.7 11.2 11.8 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.2 9.7
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 84.7 116.5 110.0 84.7 59.5 54.0 48.6 46.1 46.6 47.0
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1068 1248 1567 1698 1830 1837 1845 1832 1798 1763
NMVOC Mt 139 141 165 207 248 274 301 346 392 442 497 552
NOx  MtN 31 32 45 66 83 91 100 94 88 84 80 77
OECD90 - A1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 849 919 961 1003 1035 1069 1081 1085 1088 1096 1106 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.7 20.1 25.2 31.0 37.8 50.1 55.0 65.2 71.0 91.7 118.0 128.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 13 13 14 15 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 7
Liquids 69 88 95 95 87 80 72 68 63 62 65 68
Gas 28 33 36 40 41 41 41 39 36 32 26 20
Electricity 24 29 35 42 52 62 72 86 101 115 129 144
Others
Total 133 163 179 192 193 195 196 202 209 217 227 238
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 32 29 32 39 61 83 106 93 80 78 87 96
Oil 77 97 107 102 72 43 13 8 3 0 0 0
Gas 35 40 44 52 55 59 62 57 51 39 21 4
Nuclear 7 11 12 13 18 24 30 35 39 47 57 68
Biomass 0 0 1 8 12 17 21 26 30 35 40 45
Other Renewables 5 7 9 11 13 15 18 29 41 49 55 60
Total 157 184 205 224 233 241 250 247 244 249 260 272
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.6
Oil 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.8 100.6 140.1 180.7 220.5 257.4 289.3 317.3 343.7 369.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.53 3.82 4.09 4.02 3.94 3.44 2.93 2.66 2.63 2.60
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.53 3.82 4.09 4.02 3.94 3.44 2.93 2.66 2.63 2.60
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 77 83 92 100 108 114 121 125 126 128
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 7.9 8.5 8.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.8 7.5 8.3
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 169 164 152 124 97 90 83 81 86 90
NMVOC Mt 42 36 41 45 45 42 38 41 43 48 55 62
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 9
REF - A1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 417 419 425 431 432 425 423 406 398 374 347 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.9 7.0 9.1 10.3 14.8 20.1 22.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 18 12 12 12 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 2
Liquids 16 12 13 15 16 16 17 16 15 15 15 15
Gas 16 13 18 24 26 29 31 28 26 22 17 12
Electricity 8 8 10 14 17 21 24 27 30 32 32 32
Others
Total 58 44 53 65 70 74 79 77 76 72 67 61
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 23 13 15 18 18 19 19 17 14 13 12 12
Oil 18 13 15 17 18 19 19 12 5 1 0 0
Gas 27 22 29 38 38 39 39 34 30 23 15 6
Nuclear 1 1 2 2 5 7 9 10 11 11 12 13
Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 7 14 18 21 23
Other Renewables 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 13 16 18 18 18
Total 74 56 66 82 87 92 97 93 89 84 78 73
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.0 32.8 45.9 58.8 70.9 81.7 90.7 98.2 104.1 108.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.07 1.29 1.34 1.25 1.16 0.99 0.82 0.67 0.53 0.39
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.07 1.29 1.34 1.25 1.16 0.99 0.82 0.67 0.53 0.39
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 45 59 81 102 124 121 118 108 91 73
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.5 10.1 8.8 6.9 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 42 41 47 48 49 48 47 47 48 49
NMVOC Mt 16 13 17 25 29 28 28 28 28 31 35 40
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
ASIA - A1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2780 3261 3572 3884 4073 4181 4220 4012 3913 3538 3033 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 3.5 7.2 14.1 24.2 47.5 59.5 79.6 92.2 134.9 175.7 191.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 24 42 59 73 57 42 26 23 20 17 15 13
Liquids 15 37 72 133 161 190 218 219 220 217 210 202
Gas 3 8 21 53 72 92 111 106 101 88 69 50
Electricity 6 13 25 43 110 177 243 290 337 363 368 374
Others
Total 48 100 177 301 400 500 599 638 677 685 662 638
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 36 67 92 129 211 293 375 365 356 348 342 336
Oil 19 46 89 144 110 77 43 26 9 0 0 0
Gas 4 11 28 68 107 145 184 168 152 118 66 13
Nuclear 0 1 4 9 38 67 96 108 120 133 147 161
Biomass 0 0 0 11 21 31 41 44 47 53 63 73
Other Renewables 5 5 8 11 24 38 51 95 139 161 162 163
Total 64 130 221 371 511 650 789 806 823 814 780 746
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.7 10.1 13.8 17.4 20.9 24.3 27.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.4 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.3 7.9 9.2 10.1 10.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 47.4 100.9 183.7 290.5 415.8 546.1 668.3 782.2 887.9 985.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 3.55 6.41 9.43 11.34 13.26 12.50 11.73 10.95 10.15 9.35
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.33 0.26 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.89 6.80 9.76 11.60 13.45 12.62 11.80 10.98 10.16 9.34
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 146 167 190 206 222 208 193 183 179 174
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.0
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 47.2 67.9 58.5 38.4 18.3 15.6 12.9 11.7 12.0 12.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 374 471 629 711 792 802 811 804 778 753
NMVOC Mt 33 37 43 54 66 75 84 95 105 115 123 132
NOx  MtN 7 9 16 27 36 42 47 44 40 37 35 32
ALM - A1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1218 1519 1869 2218 2500 2851 2980 3023 3044 3013 2795 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.6 4.3 7.4 13.3 22.3 42.5 52.8 71.8 83.8 126.6 171.2 189.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 1 2 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 15 15 14
Liquids 23 40 63 106 134 161 189 191 193 192 186 180
Gas 5 9 18 37 56 76 95 95 94 87 71 55
Electricity 5 8 14 24 46 68 90 130 170 202 225 249
Others
Total 34 58 98 172 244 316 388 430 473 495 497 499
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 9 15 26 77 128 179 198 217 230 238 246
Oil 26 45 72 118 101 85 68 42 15 2 1 1
Gas 9 14 25 48 78 107 136 132 128 106 65 24
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 11 19 28 38 48 61 75 90
Biomass 0 0 1 8 24 40 56 68 81 91 100 110
Other Renewables 5 5 7 8 13 17 22 49 77 96 108 120
Total 44 74 121 211 304 396 489 528 566 586 588 590
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.5 9.7 12.1 14.5
Oil 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.0 3.9 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.5 4.8 6.1 7.3 8.1 8.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 38.7 71.8 119.0 179.7 253.3 331.6 406.5 477.2 542.4 601.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.86 3.15 4.63 5.99 7.36 7.21 7.07 6.68 6.06 5.44
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.78 0.85 0.80 0.72 0.65 0.45 0.25 0.15 0.14 0.14
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.63 4.00 5.42 6.71 8.00 7.66 7.32 6.83 6.21 5.58
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 109 135 155 168 182 173 164 155 145 135
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 16.1 27.1 31.5 29.0 26.4 24.9 23.3 22.5 22.4 22.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 483 572 738 815 892 898 904 900 886 872
NMVOC Mt 48 55 64 82 107 129 151 183 216 249 283 317
NOx  MtN 7 8 12 19 27 31 36 36 35 35 34 33