Table 6- 2a: Overview of main driving forces for the four SRES marker scenarios for 2100 if not indicated otherwise. Numbers in brackets show the range across all other scenarios from the same scenario family as the marker. Units are given in the table. (IND regions includes industrialized countries consisting of OECD90 and REF regions; and DEV region includes developing countries consisting of ASIA and ALM regions, see Appendix IV). | ||||||
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Population In Billion |
Economic Growth, GDP mexa |
Per Capita Income, GDP mex /capita |
Primary Energy Use | Hydrocarbon Resource Use b |
Land- Use Change c | |
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A1 | Lutz (1996) Low ~7 billion 1.4 IND 5.6 DEV |
Very high 1990- 2020: 3.3 (2.8- 3.6) 1990- 2050: 3.6 (2.9- 3.7) 1990- 2100: 2.9 (2.5- 3.0) |
Very high in IND: US$ 107,300 (60,300- 113,500) in DEV: US$ 66,500 (41,400- 69,800) |
Very high 2.226 (1,002- 2,683) EJ Low energy intensity of 4.2 MJ/ US$ (1.9- 5.1) |
Varied in four scenario groups: Oil: Low to very high 20.8 (11.5- 50.8) ZJ Gas: High to very high 42.2 (19.7- 54.9) ZJ Coal: Medium to very high 15.9 (4.4- 68.3) ZJ |
Low. 1990- 2100: 3% cropland, 6% grasslands 2% forests |
A2 | Lutz (1996) High ~15 billion 2.2 IND 12.9 DEV |
Medium 1990- 2020: 2.2 (2.0- 2.6) 1990- 2050: 2.3 (1.7- 2.8) 1990- 2100: 2.3 (2.0- 2.3) |
Low in DEV Medium in IND in IND: US$ 46,200 (37,100- 64,500) in DEV: US$ 11,000 (10,300- 13,700) |
High 1,717 (1,304- 2.040) EJ High energy intensity of 7.1 MJ/ US$ (5.2- 8.9) |
Scenario dependent: Oil: Very low to medium 17.3 (11.0- 22.5) ZJ Gas: Low to high 24.6 (18.4- 35.5) ZJ Coal: Medium to Very high 46.8 (20.1- 47.7) ZJ |
Medium n. a. from ASF |
B1 | Lutz (1996) Low ~7 billion 1.4 IND 5.7 DEV |
High 1990- 2020: 3.1 (2.9- 3.3) 1990- 2050: 3.1 (2.9- 3.5) 1990- 2100: 2.5 (2.5- 2.6) |
High in IND: US$ 72,800 (65,300- 77,700) In DEV: US$ 40,200 (40,200- 45,200) |
Low. 514 (514- 1,157) EJ Very low energy intensity of 1.6 EJ/ US$ (1.6- 3.4) |
Scenario dependent: Oil: Very low to high 19.6 (15.7- 19.6) ZJ Gas: Medium to high 14.7 (14.7- 31.8) ZJ Coal: Very low to high 13.2 (3.3- 27.2) ZJ |
High 1990- 2100: -28% cropland -45% grassland +30% forests |
B2 | UN (1998) Median ~10 billion 1.3 IND 9.1 DEV |
Medium 1990- 2020: 3.0 (2.2- 3.1) 1990- 2050: 2.8 (2.1- 2.9) 1990- 2100: 2.2 (2.0- 2.3) |
Medium in IND: US$ 54,400 (42,400- 61,100) In DEV: US$ 18,000 (14,200- 21,500) |
Medium 1,357 (846- 1,625) EJ Medium energy intensity of 5.8 MJ/ US$ (4.3- 6.5) |
Oil: Low to medium 19.5 (11.2- 22.7) ZJ by 2100 Gas: Low to medium 26.9 (17.9- 26.9) ZJ by 2100 Coal: Low to very high 12.6 (12.6- 44.4) ZJ by 2100 |
Medium 1990- 2100: +22% cropland +9% grasslands +5% forests d |
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a Exponential growth rates after World Bank (1999) method
(given on pages 371 to 372) are calculated using the different base years
from the models. b Resource availability is generally combined with scenario specific rates of technological change. c Residual and other land- use categories are not shown in the Table. d Land- use data for B2 marker taken from AIM land- use B2 scenario run. |
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