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Comparatively few scenarios in the literature explicitly consider the interplay between resource availability and technological change, and hence the possibilities of wide-ranging alternative futures of fossil and renewable resource use. For fossil fuels, alternative resource development scenarios are described in Ausubel et al. (1988), Edmonds and Barns (1992), IIASA-WEC (1995), Nakicenovic et al. (1998a), and Schollenberger (1998). For renewable energy resources, scenarios of enhanced resource development are described in Goldemberg et al. (1988), Johansson et al. (1993), Lazarus et al. (1993), Watson et al. (1996), and Nakicenovic et al. (1998a).
A critical issue in the context of this report is how to capture alternative future interplays between energy technology and resource development, in contrast to the more traditional approach of assuming fixed resource quantities across all scenarios. This is important because the literature reviewed above indicates that resource availability can vary widely. For instance, generally oil and gas are considered the most constrained fossil fuel resources. Yet, a representative range from the literature gives cumulative production levels between 1990 and 2100 of between 21 and 65 ZJ, with typical intermediate scenarios of 30-35 ZJ (Nakicenovic et al., 1998a; Schollenberger, 1998). The extreme values of cumulative resource use are evidently inversely related between different energy sources across the range of alternative scenarios. For instance, in scenarios with high availability of oil and gas, typically the use of coal or renewable resources is more limited, whereas in scenarios of rapid development of renewable alternatives, the use of fossil resources is more limited. In other words, future resource availability of fossil fuels as well as renewables is constructed in scenarios based on current understanding and the available literature. Resource availability results from alternative policies and strategies in exploration, R&D, investments, and the resultant resource development efforts. The long lead-times and enormous investments involved result in such strategies yielding a cumulative effect, referred to in the technological literature as "lock-in" (see Section 3.4.4). Development of alternatives can be furthered, but it can also be blocked when policies and investments favor existing resources and technologies. The most important long-term issue is how the transition away from easily accessible conventional oil (and to a lesser extent conventional gas) reserves will unfold. Will it lead to a massive development of coal in the absence of alternatives or, conversely, to a massive development of unconventional oil and gas? Alternatively, could the development of post-fossil alternatives make the recourse to coal and unconventional oil and gas (such as methane clathrates) obsolete?
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