Box TS-5: Recommendations for Consideration by the User Communities
The writing team recommends that the SRES scenarios be the main basis
for the assessment of future emissions and their driving forces in the
TAR. Accordingly, the SRES writing team makes the following recommendations
regarding the emissions scenarios to be used in the atmosphere/ocean general
circulation models (A/O GCMs) simulations for WGI, for the models that
will be used in the assessment of climate change impacts by WGII, and
for the mitigation and stabilization assessments by WGIII:
- It is recommended that a range of SRES scenarios from more than
one family be used in any analysis. The scenario groups - the three
scenario families A2, B1, and B2, plus the groups within the A1 scenario
family, A1B, A1C & A1G (combined into A1FI in the SPM), and A1T - and
four cumulative emissions categories were developed as the smallest
subsets of SRES scenarios that capture the range of uncertainties associated
with driving forces and emissions.
- The important uncertainties may be different in different applications
- for example climate modeling; assessment of impacts, vulnerability,
mitigation, and adaptation options; and policy analysis. Climate
modelers may want to cover the range reflected by the cumulative emissions
categories. To assess the robustness of options in terms of impacts,
vulnerability, and adaptation may require scenarios with similar emissions
but different socio-economic characteristics, as reflected by the seven
groups. For mitigation analysis, variation in both emissions and socio-economic
characteristics may be necessary. For analysis at the national or regional
scale, the most appropriate scenarios may be those that best reflect
specific circumstances and perspectives.
- There is no single most, likely "central" or "best-guess" scenario,
either with respect to other SRES scenarios or to the underlying scenario
literature. Probabilities or likelihoods are not assigned to individual
SRES scenarios. None of the SRES scenarios represents an estimate of
a central tendency for all driving forces and emissions, such as the
mean or median, and none should be interpreted as such. The statistics
associated with the frequency distributions of SRES scenarios do not
represent the likelihood of their occurrence. The writing team cautions
against constructing a central, "best-estimate" scenario from the SRES
scenarios; instead it recommends use of the SRES scenarios as they are.
- Concerning large-scale climate models, the writing team recommends
that the minimum set of SRES scenarios should include the four designated
marker scenarios and the two additional illustrative scenarios selected
in the SPM from the scenario groups in the A1 family. At the minimum
(a) a simulation for one and the same SRES marker scenario should be
performed by every TAR climate model for a given stabilization ceiling,
and (b) the set of simulations performed by the TAR climate models and
stabilization runs for a given ceiling should include all four of the
SRES marker scenarios and the two additional illustrative scenarios
selected in SPM from the scenario groups in the A1 family.
- The driving forces and emissions of each SRES scenario should be
used together. To avoid internal inconsistencies, components of
SRES scenarios should not be mixed. For example, the GHG emissions from
one scenario and the SO2 emissions from another scenario, or the population
from one and economic development path from another, should not be combined.
- The SRES scenarios can provide policy makers with a long-term context
for near-term decisions. This implies that they are not necessarily
well suited for the analysis of near-term developments. When analyzing
mitigation and adaptation options, the user should be aware that although
no additional climate initiatives are included in the SRES scenarios,
various changes have been assumed to occur that would require other
policy interventions.
- All 40 SRES emissions scenarios, their main driving forces, and
underlying assumptions should be made widely available. Depending
on resources available the scenario documentation, should e.g., be placed
on the web and made available on a CD-ROM. In addition, the time-dependent
geographic distributions of the concentrations of GHGs and sulfate aerosol
burden, together with their corresponding radiative forcings, should
also be placed on the web.
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