Changes on cereal production under three different GCM equilibrium scenarios

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34. The figure shows change in cereals production under three different GCM equilibrium scenarios (percent from base estimated in 2060). While there are still uncertainties about whether climate change will cause global agricultural production to increase or decrease, changes in the aggregate level of production are expected to be small or moderate. The result of the studies that have been conducted so far vary depending on such variables as the trade models and market assumptions that are used.For example, the difference between agricultural impacts in developed and developing countries can be reinforced by markets and depending on the trade model used, agricultural exporters may gain even though their supplies fall as a result of higher world prices.

The figure also illustrates how trade and adaptation capability can interact. Developing country production levels fell more as compared with those of developed countries under adaptation level 1 because their estimated capability to adapt was less than in developed countries. The situation reverses under adaptation level 2.

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