The future for reindeer husbandry in the barents region is highly dependent on the availability of grazing land. Extensive oil and gas development will likely lead to loss of vital ranges, in particular coastal summer pastures and calving grounds. Reindeer husbandry and barents 2030 presents new potential scenarios for reindeer husbandry, combining the globio methodology for mapping loss of biodiversity with the extensive oil and gas development pictured in the barlindhaug scenarios.
New calculations confrm that continued piece meal development will substantially reduce grazing grounds in coastal areas, also without additional pe- troleum development. When coupled with extensive petroleum development as projected in this report, however, an additional 21 000 km2 will be deteriorated as grazing grounds in the Barents region. This is equivalent to the size of 2/3 of Finnmark’s spring and summer ranges.
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Continued loss of grazing land will constrain reindeer husbandry practices and make the livelihood less capable of handling other future challenges such as climate change. Herd production will likely decrease, while internal and external conficts will become more common as the competition for resources increase. Unless a no-net loss of reindeer grazing ranges is im- plemented, continued piecemeal development, mainly as a result of associated non-petroleum activity, will seriously threaten the entire platform upon which reindeer herding is based. Identifcation of alternative ranges, restoration of current ranges, or the de- velopment of mitigation schemes to reduce impacts of current and new activity will be required in order to ensure long-term sustainability and the survival of reindeer husbandry.