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Forecast World 2015 Forecast World 2015
What will the world situation, specifically related to development and environment, be in 2015? This graphic, in the form similar to a weather forecast, tries to paint out a likely future scenario, with both good and bad spots.
20 Sep 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Climate change in Zimbabwe: trends in temperature and rainfall Climate change in Zimbabwe: trends in temperature and rainfall
Zimbabwe is experiencing more hot days and fewer cold days, and the amount of precipitation it receives is deviating from the mean more frequently. This resource includes two graphics. The first shows the number of days with a minimum temperature of 12 degrees Celsius and the number of days with a minimum temperature of 30 degrees Celsius from 1950 to 1990. The second graphic shows the amount of precipitation in millimetres that was a departure f...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Great weather and flood catastrophes over the last forty years Great weather and flood catastrophes over the last forty years
Some reports suggest that increase in climate variability or extremes has taken place in recent decades. However, there are inadequate data to determine whether such global changes have occurred consistently over the 20th century. On regional scales there is clear evidence of changes in some extremes and climate variability indicators - for example, fewer frosts in several widespread areas; and an increase in the proportion of rainfall from extr...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Tropical cyclone frequency Tropical cyclone frequency
Tropical cyclones, or hurricanes or typhoons, are storm weather systems, characterised by a low pressure centre, thunderstorms and high windspeeds. As the name testifies, these occur in the areas between the tropics, in the tropical areas. Cyclones can, after they have formed in the oceans, move in over populated areas, creating much damage and even natural disasters.
09 Oct 2007 - by Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Climate change and vector-borne diseases Climate change and vector-borne diseases
Climate change and altered weather patters would affect the range (both altitude and latitude), intensity, and seasonality of many major tropical vector-borne and other infectious diseases - such as malaria and dengue fever.
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Global costs of extreme weather events Global costs of extreme weather events
The loss data on great natural disasters in the last decades show a dramatic increase in catastrophe losses. A decade comparison since 1960 is shown in the table. The reasons for this development are manifold and encompass the increase in world population and the simultaneous concentration of people and values in large conurbations, the development of highly exposed regions and the high vulnerability of modern societies and technologies, and fina...
17 May 2005 - by Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Early warning systems Early warning systems
Every year, disasters caused by weather, climate and water-related hazards impact on communities around the world, leading to loss of human life, destruction of social and economic infrastructure and degradation of already fragile ecosystems. Statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the university of Leuven, Belgium, reveal that from 1992-2001, about 90% of natural disasters were meteorological or hydrol...
01 Feb 2006 - by Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Global costs of extreme weather events Global costs of extreme weather events
The loss data on great natural disasters in the last decades show a dramatic increase in catastrophe losses. A decade comparison since 1960 is shown in the table. The reasons for this development are manifold and encompass the increase in world population and the simultaneous concentration of people and values in large conurbations, the development of highly exposed regions and the high vulnerability of modern societies and technologies, and fina...
01 Feb 2006 - by Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
5
Tropical cyclone frequency Tropical cyclone frequency
Tropical cyclones, or hurricanes or typhoons, are storm weather systems, characterised by a low pressure centre, thunderstorms and high windspeeds. As the name testifies, these occur in the areas between the tropics, in the tropical areas. Cyclones can, after they have formed in the oceans, move in over populated areas, creating much damage and even natural disasters.
01 Feb 2006 - by Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage compared with currently used shipping routes Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage compared with currently used shipping routes
Climate models project that summer sea ice in the Arctic Basin will retreat further and further away from most Arctic landmasses, opening new shipping routes and extending the navigation season in the Northern Sea Route by between two and four months. Previously frozen areas in the Arctic may therefore become seasonally or permanently navigable, increasing the prospects for marine transport through the Arctic and providing greater access to Arcti...
01 Oct 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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The “Hole”: a result of special weather conditions over the pole repeated every spring The “Hole”: a result of special weather conditions over the pole repeated every spring
The Antarctic continent is circled by a strong wind in the stratosphere which flows around Antarctica and isolates air over Antarctica from air in the midlatitudes. The region poleward of this jet stream is called the Antarctic polar vortex. The air inside the Antarctic polar vortex is much colder than midlatitude air.” “When temperatures drop below -78°C, thin clouds form of ice, nitric acid, and sulphuric acid mixtures. Chemical reactions on th...
29 Nov 2007 - by Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Major research stations in Antarctica Major research stations in Antarctica
Antarctica is interesting for many types of researchers. For example, glaciologists study the ice and snow, while oceanographers look at the oceans. The ice, snow and oceans affect the global climate and are presently changing as a result of global warming. The many other types of researchers who work here include geologists (who study rocks), astronomers (who study outer space), and meteorologists (who study the weather). How do researchers stud...
31 Jul 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage compared with currently used shipping routes Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage compared with currently used shipping routes
Climate models project that summer sea ice in the Arctic Basin will retreat further and further away from most Arctic landmasses, opening new shipping routes and extending the navigation season in the Northern Sea Route by between two and four months. Previously frozen areas in the Arctic may therefore become seasonally or permanently navigable, increasing the prospects for marine transport through the Arctic and providing greater access to Arcti...
01 Oct 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Major research stations in the Arctic Major research stations in the Arctic
The Arctic is interesting for many types of researchers. For example, glaciologists study the ice and snow, while oceanographers look at the oceans. The ice, snow and oceans in the Arctic and Antarctic affect the global climate and are presently changing as a result of global warming. Biologists research the plants and animals, which are specially adapted to the polar regions and will be some of the first in the world to be affected by climate ch...
31 Jul 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected impacts of climate change Projected impacts of climate change
Global climate change may impact food production across a range of pathways (Figure 17): 1) By changing overall growing conditions (general rainfall distribution, temperature regime and carbon); 2) By inducing more extreme weather such as floods, drought and storms; and 3) By increasing extent, type and frequency of infestations, including that of invasive alien species (dealt with in a separate section).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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FAO Commodity Price Indices FAO Commodity Price Indices
Although production has generally increased, the rising prices coincided with extreme weather events in several major cereal producing countries, which resulted in a depletion of cereal stocks. The 2008 world cereal stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest levels in 30 years time, to 18.7% of utilization or only 66 days of food (FAO, 2008).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050
Figure 24: Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 with climate change (A2 scenario), non-food crops incl. biofuels (six OECD scenarios), land degradation (on yield and area, respectively, see text), water scarcity (including gradual melt of Himalayas glaciers, see box and text) and pests (invasive species of weeds, pathogens and invertebrates such as insects, see text). Although these effects may be considerable, ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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FAO Food price index (FFPI) FAO Food price index (FFPI)
The current world food crisis is the result of the combined effects of competition for cropland from the growth in biofuels, low cereal stocks, high oil prices, speculation in food markets and extreme weather events. The crisis has resulted in a several-fold increase in several central commodity prices, driven 110 million people into poverty and added 44 million more to the already undernourished. Information on the role and constraints of t...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Simulated Future Temperature Trends Simulated Future Temperature Trends
Weather patterns are altered.
27 Oct 2009 - by Riccardo Pravettoni, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Arctic terrestrial species trends 1970-2005 (ASTI) Arctic terrestrial species trends 1970-2005 (ASTI)
Dramatic changes, such as sea ice loss, are projected to occur in Arctic ecosystems over the next century. Understanding how the Arctic’s living resources, including its vertebrate species, are responding to these changes is essential in order to develop effective conservation and adaptation strategies. Arctic species that are adapted to these extreme environments are expected to be displaced, in part, by the encroachment of more southerly specie...
17 Mar 2010 - by Hugo Ahlenius, GRID-Arendal & CAFF
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