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Human impact, year 2002 (Miller cylindrical projection) Human impact, year 2002 (Miller cylindrical projection)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the current situation, as a baseline for the GEO-3 scenarios. The main wilderness areas in the world are the Arctic, the Amazon, desert areas and the Tibetan plateau. This maps uses an older color scheme that does not differentiate between the three impact classes used in the GLOBIO-2 maps after 2001.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact, year 2002 Human impact, year 2002
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the current situation, as a baseline for the GEO-3 scenarios. The main wilderness areas in the world are the Arctic, the Amazon, desert areas and the Tibetan plateau.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Human impact, year 2032 (security first scenario) Human impact, year 2032 (security first scenario)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the possible situation in 2032, using the GEO-3 security first scenario. This scenario assumes a world of striking disparities where inequality and conflict prevail.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Human impact, year 2032 (markets first scenario) Human impact, year 2032 (markets first scenario)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the possible situation in 2032, using the GEO-3 markets first scenario. This scenario suggests that most of the world adopts the values and expectations prevailing in today’s industrialized countries.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Human impact, year 2002 (Interrupted projection) Human impact, year 2002 (Interrupted projection)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the current situation, as a baseline for the GEO-3 scenarios. The main wilderness areas in the world are the Arctic, the Amazon, desert areas and the Tibetan plateau. This maps uses an older color scheme that does not differentiate between the three impact classes used in the GLOBIO-2 maps after 2001.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Human impact, year 2002 (Miller cylindrical projection) Human impact, year 2002 (Miller cylindrical projection)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the current situation, as a baseline for the GEO-3 scenarios. The main wilderness areas in the world are the Arctic, the Amazon, desert areas and the Tibetan plateau. This maps uses an older color scheme that does not differentiate between the three impact classes used in the GLOBIO-2 maps after 2001.
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Human impact, year 2002 Human impact, year 2002
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the current situation, as a baseline for the GEO-3 scenarios. The main wilderness areas in the world are the Arctic, the Amazon, desert areas and the Tibetan plateau.
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Human impact, year 2002 (Interrupted projection) Human impact, year 2002 (Interrupted projection)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the current situation, as a baseline for the GEO-3 scenarios. The main wilderness areas in the world are the Arctic, the Amazon, desert areas and the Tibetan plateau. This maps uses an older color scheme that does not differentiate between the three impact classes used in the GLOBIO-2 maps after 2001.
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Impact of human activities on reindeer habitat - Barents region Impact of human activities on reindeer habitat - Barents region
The impact of infrastructure development on reindeer potentially threatens the cultural traditions of the Barents region indigenous people and their chosen way of life. The probability of impact on wildlife, vegetation and ecosystems is related to distance to different types of infrastructure. The distance zones of impact are lowest in forest and highest in open tundra. The extent of the zones are based upon several hundred field studies from int...
26 Jan 2006 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Julien Rouaud, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Loss of Great Ape habitat 2002-2032 (Africa) Loss of Great Ape habitat 2002-2032 (Africa)
Based on population pressures the GLOBIO2 model has assessed the current and future human impacts on Great Ape habitat in Africa (Chimpanzee, Bonobo and Gorilla). The analysis shows a vast reduction of some of the world's remaining wilderness areas. (this poster prepared for the UNESCO GRASP meeting in November 2003)
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Radioactive, chemical and biological hazards in Central Asia Radioactive, chemical and biological hazards in Central Asia
The Soviet development model for Central Asia was based on building large-scale irrigation schemes enabling the region to become a major cotton producer and expanding the mining and processing industry. Industrial operations in the region paid little attention to the environment and public health, resulting in the accumulation of pollutants in the local environment. Today, not only active industrial facilities constitute a threat to environment, ...
16 Mar 2006 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Projected temperatures in the 21th century Projected temperatures in the 21th century
Projected Arctic annual land temperature increases for the first half of the 21st century relative to the average temperature for 1980–99. The average of the IPCC models (the blue line) shows an increase of 3ºC by 2050. The averages of the runs from each of the 12 models show increases from 2–4ºC, the range of uncertainty in these model projections.
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
2
Projected reduction in snow 2080-2100 Projected reduction in snow 2080-2100
Using one specific climate change model (ECHAM5) and the SRES A2 emission scenario (run 2) the projected loss of snow amounts to decreases of 60–80 per cent in monthly maximum snow water equivalent over most middle latitudes by the end of this century. The largest decreases are projected over Europe, while the model projects increases are in the Canadian Arctic and Siberia. Snow presents an important factor for ecosystems, water and human activit...
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Projected sea-level rise for the 21st century Projected sea-level rise for the 21st century
The projected range of global averaged sea-level rise from the IPCC 2001 Assessment Report for the period 1990 to 2100 is shown by the lines and shading. The updated AR4 IPCC projections made are shown by the bars plotted at 2095, the dark blue bar is the range of model projections (90% confidence limits) and the light blue bar has the upper range extended to allow for the potential but poorly quantified additional contribution from a dynamic res...
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
5
Sea ice concentration change over the 21st century as projected by climate models Sea ice concentration change over the 21st century as projected by climate models
The data are taken from climate model experiments of 12 (out of 24) different models that were conducted for the IPCC Assessment Report 4 using the SRES A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. Plots on the right show changes in late summer and those on the left show changes in late winter. Notes: 1) sea ice extent is the area in which a defined minimum of sea ice can be found. sea ice concentration is the proportion of the ocean area actually cover...
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Arctic temperatures in the 20th century, modeled and observed Arctic temperatures in the 20th century, modeled and observed
Observed Arctic winter land temperatures and IPCC model recreations for the 20th century. Note that although these model runs are able to capture the range of Arctic warm and cold periods, the timing of the peaks varies, suggesting that the early 20th century warming was due to random causes, while the increases at the end of the century shown by all the models supports CO2 as an external forcing of the Arctic climate system.
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Projected increase (days) of the navigation season through the Northern Sea Route as an average of 5 ACIA model projections Projected increase (days) of the navigation season through the Northern Sea Route as an average of 5 ACIA model projections
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a seasonally ice-covered marine shipping lane along the Russian coasts, from Novaya Zemlya in the west to the Bering Strait in the east. The NSR is administered by the Russian Ministry of Transport and has been open to marine traffic of all nations since 1991. For trans-Arctic voyages, the NSR represents a saving in distance of up to 40 per cent from Northern Europe to northeastern Asia and northwestern North Ameri...
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected changes in permafrost (Northern Hemisphere) Projected changes in permafrost (Northern Hemisphere)
Modelled permafrost temperatures (mean annual temperature at the permafrost surface) for the Northern Hemisphere (Arctic), derived by applying climate conditions to a spatially distributed permafrost model. (a) Present-day: temperatures averaged over the years 1980– 1999. Present-day climatic conditions were based on the CRU2 data set with 0.5° x 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution. (b) Future: projected changes in temperatures in comparison with ...
01 Jun 2007 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Temperature increases in the Antarctic due to climate change, 2090 (NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2 experiment) Temperature increases in the Antarctic due to climate change, 2090 (NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2 experiment)
Climate change, due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has not lead as clear changes in the Antarctic as in the Arctic. Some of the ice shelves of the Antarctic peninsula have split up and started moving more rapidly, but the analyses of the Antarctic ice sheet are inconclusive. The projected climate situation in 2090 are presented in this figure, the temperatures are annual values from the NCAR-CCM3 model, ensembl...
31 Jul 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected temperature increases in the Arctic due to climate change, 2090 (NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2 experiment) Projected temperature increases in the Arctic due to climate change, 2090 (NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2 experiment)
Climate change, due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has lead to increased temperatures and large scale changes in the Arctic. The Arctic sea ice is decreasing, permafrost thawing and the glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking. The projected climate situation in 2090 are presented in this figure, the temperatures are annual values from the NCAR-CCM3 model, ensemble averages 1-5 for the SRES A2 experiment. The ice ...
31 Jul 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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