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Key relationships between future challenges and agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) options for action Key relationships between future challenges and agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) options for action
The general model has been to continuously innovate, reduce farm gate prices and externalize costs. This model drove the phenomenal achievements of AKST in industrial countries after WWII and the spread of the Green Revolution beginning in the 1960s. But, given the new challenges we confront today, there is increasing recognition within formal S&T organizations that the current AKST model requires revision.
03 Jan 2008 - by IAASTD/Ketill Berger, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Larimichthys polyactis Catch in early 2000s and predicted Catch Shift Larimichthys polyactis Catch in early 2000s and predicted Catch Shift
(a) Current (early 2000s) and (b) climate-shifted distributions of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis (Sciaenidae). The climate-shifted distribution was predicted by a dynamic bioclimate envelope model described by Cheung et al. (2008), under a hypothetical increase in average global ocean temperature of 2.5°C. Boundaries of Exclusive Economic Zones are delineated by the dashed lines.
06 Oct 2009 - by Riccardo Pravettoni, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Preliminary assessment of the Himalaya region Preliminary assessment of the Himalaya region
Poster that was prepared as a proof of concept in the development of the GLOBIO2 model. The greater Himalayan region is a giant mega watershed with many areas with little development and this area harbours a massive amount of water resources for the population in the densily inhabited areas downstream.
26 Jan 2006 - by Julien Rouaud, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Preliminary assessment of the Amazonian region Preliminary assessment of the Amazonian region
Poster that was prepared as a proof of concept in the development of the GLOBIO2 model. The greater Amazonian region is a giant mega watershed with many remote areas with very little development and this area harbours a massive amount of water resources for the population in the densily inhabited areas downstream, as well as areas of very high and unique biodiversity.
26 Jan 2006 - by Maren Aschehoug, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact, Norway 2002-2050 (with protected areas) Human impact, Norway 2002-2050 (with protected areas)
Analysis of the suggested development of impact on ecosystems through human activities. The GLOBIO-2 model uses settlements and infrastructure, such as roads, pipelines and powerlines as proxies for stress and fragmentation.
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact, Northern Norway 1600 and 2002-2052 Human impact, Northern Norway 1600 and 2002-2052
Analysis of the suggested development of impact on ecosystems through human activities. The GLOBIO-2 model uses settlements and infrastructure, such as roads, pipelines and powerlines as proxies for stress and fragmentation.
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Loss of Great Ape habitat 2002-2032 (Southeast Asia) Loss of Great Ape habitat 2002-2032 (Southeast Asia)
Based on population pressures the GLOBIO2 model has assessed the current and future human impacts on Great Ape (Orangutan) habitat in Southeast Asia. The remaining forests are projected to be subject to piecemal fragmentation and loss of wilderness characteristics, in the Orangutan range.
26 Jan 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Changes in biodiversity and ecosystems based on human impact 1990-2050 Changes in biodiversity and ecosystems based on human impact 1990-2050
Modelling, using the GLOBIO1 model, over the Arctic, assessing the impacts on the environment based on infrastructure development between 1990 and 2050 in three different scenarios. The development of roads, pipelines and powerlines fragments the natural habitats and reduces the wilderness qualities.
26 Jan 2006 - by Even Husby, Julien Rouaud, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact, year 2032 (policy first scenario) Human impact, year 2032 (policy first scenario)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the possible situation in 2032, using the GEO-3 policy first scenario. This scenario suggests that decisive initiatives are taken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact, year 1700 (approximately) Human impact, year 1700 (approximately)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the situation as it could have been before the advent of industrialization, with very little impact and fragmentation. The main human impact at this stage would have been the conversion of land, primarily in Europe.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact, year 2032 (sustainability first scenario) Human impact, year 2032 (sustainability first scenario)
The GLOBIO-2 model is based on settlements and modern infrastructure such as roads, powerlines and pipelines. This map presents the possible situation in 2032, using the GEO-3 security first scenario. This scenario suggests a new environment and development paradigm emerging in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.
04 Oct 2005 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Modeled temperature compared to observed temperature for the last 150 years Modeled temperature compared to observed temperature for the last 150 years
As we can see from models of temperature changes caused by natural forcing, we should have observed a decrease in the global average temperature lately, but we have not. We have observed an increase. A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The simulations in a) were done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. In b) only anthropogenic forc...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Radioactive, chemical and biological hazards in Central Asia Radioactive, chemical and biological hazards in Central Asia
The Soviet development model for Central Asia was based on building large-scale irrigation schemes enabling the region to become a major cotton producer and expanding the mining and processing industry. Industrial operations in the region paid little attention to the environment and public health, resulting in the accumulation of pollutants in the local environment. Today, not only active industrial facilities constitute a threat to environment, ...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected temperature changes, 2000 to 2100 scenario Projected temperature changes, 2000 to 2100 scenario
Average temperatures changes in the world according to the GFDL model (doubling of CO2 and temperature increase by 3,7°C from 2000 to 2100). According to this model, the changes will be most severe in the Arctic and the Northern hemisphere.
28 Sep 2005 - by UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Climate change scenarios for desert areas by 2050 Climate change scenarios for desert areas by 2050
In desert areas by 2050, the majority of the temperature increase, according to the NCAR-CCSM3 model (and the IPCC SRES A2 scenario), will occur in the Northern Sahara, western Australia and in the inland deserts of North America. The precipitation will increase closer to the equator, but with large decreases primarily in Australia.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Land cover changes in desert areas 1700,1900,2000 and 2050 Land cover changes in desert areas 1700,1900,2000 and 2050
The main land use change in desert areas has been the conversion of relatively barren drylands for agricultural needs, partially through irrigation. The conversion has historically primarily been to use the land for grazing, but the 2050 scenario suggests that small areas on the fringes of deserts will be converted to cropland. The model otherwise predicts modest changes for 2050.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact in desert areas 1700,2000 and 2050 Human impact in desert areas 1700,2000 and 2050
The impact of human activities on wilderness qualities has been modelled using the GLOBIO-2 model. The model uses infrastructure and settlements as proxies and measure the degree by which habitats have reduced their wilderness qualities, by fragmentation and disturbance. According to the model, huge tracts of desert areas are relatively undisturbed, the majority of highly impacted areas are in the drylands of Central Asia and North America.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Climate scenarios for cereal production Climate scenarios for cereal production
The figure shows change in cereals production under three different GCM equilibrium scenarios (percent from base estimated in 2060). While there are still uncertainties about whether climate change will cause global agricultural production to increase or decrease, changes in the aggregate level of production are expected to be small or moderate. The result of the studies that have been conducted so far vary depending on such variables as the trad...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected changes in CO2 and climate: assumptions in the IPCC 1992 scenarios Projected changes in CO2 and climate: assumptions in the IPCC 1992 scenarios
Projected anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation and cement production are shown for some of the IPCC emission scenarios. The highest emission scenario - IS92e - assumes moderate population growth, high economic growth, high fossil fuel availability, and a phase out of nuclear power; and the lowest emission scenario - IS92c - assumes low population growth, low economic growth, and severe constraints on fossil fuel suppli...
06 Nov 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Loss of Great Ape habitat 2002-2032 (Africa) Loss of Great Ape habitat 2002-2032 (Africa)
Based on population pressures the GLOBIO2 model has assessed the current and future human impacts on Great Ape habitat in Africa (Chimpanzee, Bonobo and Gorilla). The analysis shows a vast reduction of some of the world's remaining wilderness areas. (this poster prepared for the UNESCO GRASP meeting in November 2003)
02 Nov 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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