What will the world situation, specifically related to development and environment, be in 2015? This graphic, in the form similar to a weather forecast, tries to paint out a likely future scenario, with both good and bad spots.

Consumption in million tonnes of petrol equivalent and forecast plus area needed for sources in millions of hectares in various regions in the world.

The Black and Mediterranean Seas are one of the main outlets for transporting fuel resources that have been extracted around the Caspian Sea region and from further inland. Oil is transported in pipelines to the ports on the Black Sea. Forecast project a dramatic increase by 2010, including the opening of a new port in Turkey.

Kara-Bogaz-Gol is a lowland area that forms a highly saline bay on the east side of the Caspian Sea, in Turkmenistan. In Soviet times it was decided to set up a dam to block the flow of saline water from the bay to the Caspian Sea, and this was completed in 1980. Much to everyone’s surprise the Kara-Bogaz-Gol bay dried up 10 times faster than had been forecast by the Institute of Hydraulic Affairs and by autumn 1983 it was all over. The pink flam...

Water availability in developing countries (with and without arid climates) has declined by about 65 percent since the 1960s and continues to do so. Forecast indicate that water will become very scarce by 2020.

Although production has generally increased, the rising prices coincided with extreme weather events in several major cereal producing countries, which resulted in a depletion of cereal stocks. The 2008 world cereal stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest levels in 30 years time, to 18.7% of utilization or only 66 days of food (FAO, 2008).

The real concern for the future, in the context of changing patterns of rainfall, is the decrease of run-off water which may put at risk large areas of arable land. The map shows how seriously this issue must be taken, while the forecast indicates that some of the richest arable regions (Europe, United States, parts of Brazil, southern Africa) are threatened with a significant reduction of run-off water, resulting in a lack of water for rain-fed ...