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Human vulnerability and food insecurity – rainfall and economy in Sub-Saharan Africa Human vulnerability and food insecurity – rainfall and economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
For Sub-Saharan Africa, patterns in economic growth follow precipitation patterns closely. As rainfall has decreased over the last 30 years, so has the financial development. Rainfed agriculture represents a major share of the economy of these countries, as well as for domestic food supply. Improved water resources management and a wider resource base are critical to the stability and security that is required for economic development.
12 May 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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The development potential - available land per capita, in land use class The development potential - available land per capita, in land use class
The amount of land area available per capita provides a rough measure on the current carrying capacity for food security and for the development of additional agricultural products for export – such as biofuels. The calculation presented in this figure show that most of Asia is very limited in this respect, especially since populations are expected to increase. Latin America and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa show more potential for the development ...
12 May 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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World map of forest distribution (Natural resources - forests) World map of forest distribution (Natural resources - forests)
Approximately 240 million of the world's poor that live in forested areas of developing countries depend on forests for their livelihoods. Forest and its products provide cash income, jobs, and consumption goods for poor families. Forestry provides formal and informal employment for an estimated 40-60 million people. The sector contributes in some developing countries more than eight per cent to GDP. Timber may be the most important forest produc...
12 May 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Natural resource - water (freshwater run-off) Natural resource - water (freshwater run-off)
Freshwater – a natural resource which has been adopted as a human right by the UN in 2002: 'the human right to water entitles everyone to sufficient; affordable; physically accessible; safe and acceptable water for personal and domestic uses'. People depend on this resource for drinking and cooking, for irrigation of farms, for hygiene and sanitation and for power generation. The map presenting this resource only focuses on one part of the geogra...
12 May 2008 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected impacts of climate change Projected impacts of climate change
Global climate change may impact food production across a range of pathways (Figure 17): 1) By changing overall growing conditions (general rainfall distribution, temperature regime and carbon); 2) By inducing more extreme weather such as floods, drought and storms; and 3) By increasing extent, type and frequency of infestations, including that of invasive alien species (dealt with in a separate section).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in population, developed and developing countries, 1750-2050 (estimates and projections) Trends in population, developed and developing countries, 1750-2050 (estimates and projections)
Each day 200,000 more people are added to the world food demand. The world’s human population has increased near fourfold in the past 100 years (UN population Division, 2007); it is projected to increase from 6.7 billion (2006) to 9.2 billion by 2050, as shown in Figure 4 (UN Population Division, 2007). It took only 12 years for the last billion to be added, a net increase of nearly 230,000 new people each day, who will need housing, food a...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Many of the largest rivers in the Himalayas Hindu Kush region are strongly dependent upon snow and glacial melt for waterflow Many of the largest rivers in the Himalayas Hindu Kush region are strongly dependent upon snow and glacial melt for waterflow
Except for the fact that glaciers are melting rapidly in many places, we do not have adequate data to more accurately project when and where water scarcity will affect irrigation schemes in full. Making accurate projections is also difficult because of variations in the effects on ground and surface water, as well as on water for urban needs and industrial purposes Furthermore, the cost of water may also increase, seriously complicating the water...
02 Feb 2009 - by Ieva Rucevska, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Biofuels production 1975-2005 (ethanol and biodiesel) Biofuels production 1975-2005 (ethanol and biodiesel)
Biofuels have grown quickly in demand and production (Figure 14), fuelled by high oil prices and the initial perception of their role in reducing CO2 emissions (FAO, 2008). Biofuels, including biodiesel from palm oil and ethanol from sugarcane, corn and soybean, accounted for about 1% of the total road transport in 2005, and may reach 25% by 2050, with the EU having set targets as high as 10% by 2020 (World Bank, 2007; FAO, 2008). For many...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Dietary change in developing countries, 1964-2030 Dietary change in developing countries, 1964-2030
As nearly half of the world’s cereal production is used to produce animal feed, the dietary proportion of meat has a major influence on global food demand (Keyzer et al., 2005). With meat consumption projected to increase from 37.4 kg/person/year in 2000 to over 52 kg/person/year by 2050 (FAO, 2006), cereal requirements for more intensive meat production may increase substantially to more than 50% of total cereal production.
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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An increasing number of countries are leasing land abroad to sustain and secure their food production An increasing number of countries are leasing land abroad to sustain and secure their food production
The world regions are sharply divided in terms of their capacity to use science in promoting agricultural productivity in order to achieve food security and reduce poverty and hunger. For every US$100 of agricultural output, developed countries spend US$2.16 on public agricultural research and development (R&D), whereas developing countries spend only US$0.55 (IFPRI, 2008). Total agricultural R&D spending in developing countries increased ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption
i.e., before conversion of food to feed. After discounting the losses, conversions and wastage at the various stages, roughly 2,800 kcal are available for supply (mixture of animal and vegetal foods) and, at the end of the chain, 2,000 kcal on average – only 43% of the potential edible crop harvest – are available for consumption. (Source: Lundqvist et al., 2008).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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FAO Commodity Price Indices FAO Commodity Price Indices
Although production has generally increased, the rising prices coincided with extreme weather events in several major cereal producing countries, which resulted in a depletion of cereal stocks. The 2008 world cereal stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest levels in 30 years time, to 18.7% of utilization or only 66 days of food (FAO, 2008).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in productivity 1981-2003 (greening and land degradation) Trends in productivity 1981-2003 (greening and land degradation)
Unsustainable practices in irrigation and production may lead to increased salinization of soil, nutrient depletion and erosion. An estimated 950 million ha of salt-affected lands occur in arid and semi-arid regions, nearly 33% of the potentially arable land area of the world. Globally, some 20% of irrigated land (450,000 km2) is salt-affected, with 2,500–5,000 km2 of lost production every year as a result of salinity (UNEP, 2008).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Agricultural production increases, per commodity 1965-2008 Agricultural production increases, per commodity 1965-2008
The use of fertilizers accounts for approximately 50% of the yield increase, and greater irrigation for another substantial part (FAO, 2003). Current FAO projections in food demand suggest that cereal demand will increase by almost 50% towards 2050 (FAO, 2003; 2006). This can either be obtained by increasing yields, continued expansion of cropland by conversion of natural habitats, or by optimizing food or feed energy efficiency from produ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050
Figure 24: Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 with climate change (A2 scenario), non-food crops incl. biofuels (six OECD scenarios), land degradation (on yield and area, respectively, see text), water scarcity (including gradual melt of Himalayas glaciers, see box and text) and pests (invasive species of weeds, pathogens and invertebrates such as insects, see text). Although these effects may be considerable, ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in food commodity prices, compared to trends in crude oil prices (indices) Trends in food commodity prices, compared to trends in crude oil prices (indices)
The impacts of reduced food availability, higher food prices and thus lower access to food by many people have been dramatic. It is estimated that in 2008 at least 110 million people have been driven into poverty and 44 million more became undernourished (World Bank, 2008). Over 120 million more people became impoverished in the past 2–3 years.
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Potential for cropland expansion Potential for cropland expansion
Current projections suggest that an additional 120 million ha – an area twice the size of France or one-third that of India – will be needed to support the traditional growth in food production by 2030, mainly in developing countries (FAO, 2003), without considering the compensation required for certain losses. The demand for irrigated land is projected to increase by 56% in Sub- Saharan Africa (from 4.5 to 7 million ha), and rainfed land b...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Food lost Food lost
Food losses in the field (between planting and harvesting) could be as high as 20–40% of the potential harvest in developing countries due to pests and pathogens (Kader, 2005). Postharvest losses vary greatly among commodities and production areas and seasons. In the United States, the losses of fresh fruits and vegetables have been estimated to range from 2% to 23%, depending on the commodity, with an overall average of about 12% losses b...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Supermarket share of retail food sales Supermarket share of retail food sales
Large urban markets create the scope for the establishment of big supermarket chains, with implications for the entire food supply chain. In 2002, the share of supermarkets in the processed/packaged food retail market was 33% in Southeast Asia and 63% in East Asia (Figure 33). The share of supermarkets in the fresh foods market was roughly 15–20% in Southeast Asia and 30% in East Asia outside of China. The 2001 supermarket share of Chinese ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Food consumption – trends and projections Food consumption – trends and projections
Increase in crop production has mainly been a function of increases in yield due to increased irrigation and fertilizer use. However, this may change in the future towards more reliance on cropland expansion, at the cost of biodiversity. (Source: FAO, 2006).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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