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Climate scenarios for cereal production Climate scenarios for cereal production
The figure shows change in cereals production under three different GCM equilibrium scenarios (percent from base estimated in 2060). While there are still uncertainties about whether climate change will cause global agricultural production to increase or decrease, changes in the aggregate level of production are expected to be small or moderate. The result of the studies that have been conducted so far vary depending on such variables as the trad...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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World ocean thermohaline circulation World ocean thermohaline circulation
The global conveyor belt thermohaline circulation is driven primarily by the formation and sinking of deep water (from around 1500m to the Antarctic bottom water overlying the bottom of the ocean) in the Norwegian Sea. When the strength of the haline forcing increases due to excess precipitation, runoff, or ice melt the conveyor belt will weaken or even shut down. The variability in the strength of the conveyor belt will lead to climate change in...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected changes in CO2 and climate: assumptions in the IPCC 1992 scenarios Projected changes in CO2 and climate: assumptions in the IPCC 1992 scenarios
Projected anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation and cement production are shown for some of the IPCC emission scenarios. The highest emission scenario - IS92e - assumes moderate population growth, high economic growth, high fossil fuel availability, and a phase out of nuclear power; and the lowest emission scenario - IS92c - assumes low population growth, low economic growth, and severe constraints on fossil fuel suppli...
06 Nov 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Potential climate change impacts Potential climate change impacts
If greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, climatic changes are likely to result. Those changes will potentially have wide-ranging effects on the environment and socio-economic and related sectors, such as health, agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal areas and biodiversity.
23 Feb 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Potential impact of sea level rise: Nile Delta Potential impact of sea level rise: Nile Delta
Rising sea level would destroy weak parts of the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lagoons and the low-lying reclaimed lands in the Nile delta of Egypt (Mediterranean Sea). The impacts would be very serious: One third of Egypt's fish catches are made in the lagoons. Sea level rise would change the water quality and affect most fresh water fish. Valuable agricultural land would be inundated.
17 May 2005 - by Otto Simonett, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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IPCC and UNFCCC - Institutional framework IPCC and UNFCCC - Institutional framework
In 1988, UNEP and WMO jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as concern over changes in the climate became a political issue. The purpose of the IPCC was to assess the state of knowledge on the various aspects of climate change including science, environmental and socio-economic impacts and response strategies. The IPCC is recognized as the most authoritative scientific and technical voice on these issues, and it...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect
Human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase. This graphic explains how solar energy is absorbed by the earth's surface, causing the earth to warm and to emit infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases then trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere.
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Freshwater stress and risk Freshwater stress and risk
One study suggests that although global water conditions may worsen by 2025 due to population pressure, climate change could have a net positive impact on global water resources. NB! Note that other studies indicate that with present consumption patterns, 2 of every 3 persons on Earth will experience water stress by 2025. The diagram on the left side shows the result of this particular study, indicating the water availability for the population...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Temperature and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere over the past 400 000 years Temperature and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere over the past 400 000 years
Over the last 400,000 years the Earth's climate has been unstable, with very significant temperature changes, going from a warm climate to an ice age in as rapidly as a few decades. These rapid changes suggest that climate may be quite sensitive to internal or external climate forcings and feedbacks. This figures have been derived from the Vostok ice core, taken in Antarctica.
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Impact of Temperature Rise on Robusta Coffee in Uganda Impact of Temperature Rise on Robusta Coffee in Uganda
Developing countries, whose economies often rely heavily on one or two agricultural products, are especially vulnerable to climate change. This graphic shows that with an increase of only 2 degrees Celsius, there would be a dramatic decrease in the amount of land suitable for growing Robusta coffee in Uganda.
17 May 2005 - by Otto Simonett, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in the ice-breaking date in the Tornio river, Finland Trends in the ice-breaking date in the Tornio river, Finland
The icebreaking date for the Tornio River in Finland has been recorded since 1693. With the increased greenhouse effect, impacts on the cryosphere are likely. One impact will be less ice on rivers and lakes. Freeze-up dates will be delayed, and break-up will begin earlier. The period of river-ice could be shortened by up to a month. Many rivers within the temperate regions could become ice-free or develop only intermittent or partial ice coverage...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice
Sea-ice draft is the thickness of the part of the ice that is submerged under the sea. Comparison of sea-ice draft data acquired on submarine cruises between 1993 and 1997 with similar data acquired between 1958 and 1976 indicates that the mean ice draft at the end of the melt season has decreased by about 1.3 m in most of the deep water portion of the Arctic Ocean, from 3.1 m in 1958-1976 to 1.8 m in the 1990s. In summary: ice draft in the 1990s...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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IPCC structure IPCC structure
In 1988, UNEP and WMO jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as concern over changes in the climate became a political issue. The purpose of the IPCC was to assess the state of knowledge on the various aspects of global change including science, environmental and socio-economic impacts and response strategies. The IPCC is recognized as the most authoritative scientific and technical voice on these issues, and its...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability Sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability
The potential impacts of climate change on the environment and socio-economic systems can be understood in terms of sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the system, and this figure defines these terms.
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Emissions of carbon dioxide, in Africa and selected OECD countries Emissions of carbon dioxide, in Africa and selected OECD countries
Africa represents only a small fraction, 3.6%, out of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per year, yet 14% of the population of the world lives here. The emissions per inhabitant in Libya, the Seychelles and South Africa are on the level of the lowest among OECD countries with the other African countries trailing lower behind them. Regionally, emissions (both per capita and in total) are at their highest in North Africa and in the country o...
02 Nov 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Mean sea surface temperature on the Caspian Sea Mean sea surface temperature on the Caspian Sea
Recent research by the Caspian Environment Programme estimates the number of living seals to be as low as 150,000. A further reduction in ice cover due to a warming climate could well be one of the major threats facing the Caspian seal in the future.
29 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Ice cover on the North Caspian Sea Ice cover on the North Caspian Sea
Higher winter temperatures, possibly related to changes in global climate observed in recent years, have caused thinner ice coverage and restricted the traditional reproduction grounds of the Caspian seal in the shallow waters of the northern Caspian.
29 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Caspian sea climate, mean annual temperature and precipitation Caspian sea climate, mean annual temperature and precipitation
With the Caspian Sea's north-south alignment, stretching over a distance of approximately 10 degrees, the water body crosses several different climatic regions. The northernmost regions, with Russia and Kazakhstan are characterised by dry and cold temperate continental cliamte. The south part of the sea, with Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan is mountaineous and much warmer. The most precipitation is in the eastern parts, primarily in the southea...
07 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Emissions and energy scenarios by source Emissions and energy scenarios by source
Despite the Kyoto protocol and increased concern over the consequences of climate change, world wide emissions of CO2 continues to grow. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) world total CO2 emissions will increase by 62% from 2002 – 2030. More than two-thirds of the increase will come from developing countries. They will overtake the OECD as the leading contributor to global emissions early in the 2020s. Despite the strong increase ...
17 May 2005 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Kyoto protocol, projected 2010 target status Kyoto protocol, projected 2010 target status
According to the projections each country has sent to the UNFCCC Secretariat, 14 countries will reach their targets in 2010. Some of the countries that had reached their targets in 2002 will increase their emissions between 2002-2010, while others like Germany will decrease and reach their target in 2010. The number of countries reaching their targets is pretty stable. Projection data for some of the countries that reached their targets in 2002 a...
17 May 2005 - by Robert Barnes, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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