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Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050
Figure 24: Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 with climate change (A2 scenario), non-food crops incl. biofuels (six OECD scenarios), land degradation (on yield and area, respectively, see text), water scarcity (including gradual melt of Himalayas glaciers, see box and text) and pests (invasive species of weeds, pathogens and invertebrates such as insects, see text). Although these effects may be considerable, ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in food commodity prices, compared to trends in crude oil prices (indices) Trends in food commodity prices, compared to trends in crude oil prices (indices)
The impacts of reduced food availability, higher food prices and thus lower access to food by many people have been dramatic. It is estimated that in 2008 at least 110 million people have been driven into poverty and 44 million more became undernourished (World Bank, 2008). Over 120 million more people became impoverished in the past 2–3 years.
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Potential for cropland expansion Potential for cropland expansion
Current projections suggest that an additional 120 million ha – an area twice the size of France or one-third that of India – will be needed to support the traditional growth in food production by 2030, mainly in developing countries (FAO, 2003), without considering the compensation required for certain losses. The demand for irrigated land is projected to increase by 56% in Sub- Saharan Africa (from 4.5 to 7 million ha), and rainfed land b...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Food lost Food lost
Food losses in the field (between planting and harvesting) could be as high as 20–40% of the potential harvest in developing countries due to pests and pathogens (Kader, 2005). Postharvest losses vary greatly among commodities and production areas and seasons. In the United States, the losses of fresh fruits and vegetables have been estimated to range from 2% to 23%, depending on the commodity, with an overall average of about 12% losses b...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Supermarket share of retail food sales Supermarket share of retail food sales
Large urban markets create the scope for the establishment of big supermarket chains, with implications for the entire food supply chain. In 2002, the share of supermarkets in the processed/packaged food retail market was 33% in Southeast Asia and 63% in East Asia (Figure 33). The share of supermarkets in the fresh foods market was roughly 15–20% in Southeast Asia and 30% in East Asia outside of China. The 2001 supermarket share of Chinese ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Food consumption – trends and projections Food consumption – trends and projections
Increase in crop production has mainly been a function of increases in yield due to increased irrigation and fertilizer use. However, this may change in the future towards more reliance on cropland expansion, at the cost of biodiversity. (Source: FAO, 2006).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected changes in cereal productivity in Africa, due to climate change – current climate to 2080 Projected changes in cereal productivity in Africa, due to climate change – current climate to 2080
Water is essential not only to survival but is also equally or even more important than nutrients in food production. Agriculture accounts for nearly 70% of the water consumption, with some estimates as high as 85% (Hanasaki et al., 2008a,b). Water scarcity will affect over 1.8 billion people by 2025 (WHO, 2007). This could have major impacts on health, particularly in rural areas, and thus also major impacts on farmer productivity. Althoug...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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World capture fisheries and aquaculture production World capture fisheries and aquaculture production
Current projections for aquaculture suggest that previous growth is unlikely to be sustained in the future as a result of limits to the availability of wild marine fish for aquaculture feed (FAO, 2008). Small pelagic fish make up 37% of the total marine capture fisheries landings. Of this, 90% (or 27% of total landings) are processed into fishmeal and fish oil with the remaining 10% used directly for animal feed (Alder et al., 2008).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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FAO Food price index (FFPI) FAO Food price index (FFPI)
The current world food crisis is the result of the combined effects of competition for cropland from the growth in biofuels, low cereal stocks, high oil prices, speculation in food markets and extreme weather events. The crisis has resulted in a several-fold increase in several central commodity prices, driven 110 million people into poverty and added 44 million more to the already undernourished. Information on the role and constraints of t...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Crushed by war and world conflicts Crushed by war and world conflicts
Conflicts increase the risk of food supply instability tremendously (Figure 31). Countries in conflict and post-conflict situations tend to be food insecure, with more than 20% of the population, and in many cases far more, lacking access to adequate food (IFPRI, 2006). The group of countries that are experiencing civil conflicts cannot meet their basic needs and are large importers of food. In addition, the transport of commodities is haz...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Country income groups (World Bank classification) Country income groups (World Bank classification)
There are huge regional differences in the above trends. Globally, poverty rates have fallen from 52% in 1981 to 42% in 1990 and to 26% in 2005. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, the poverty rate remained constant at around 50%. This region also comprises the majority of countries making the least progress in reducing child malnutrition. The poverty rate in East Asia fell from nearly 80% in 1980 to under 20% by 2005. East Asia, notably China,...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Water requirements for food production 1960-2050 Water requirements for food production 1960-2050
The requirements for water in agriculture will need to increase in order to meet the Millennium Development Goal 1, target 2 'Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger'. To decrease hunger the outputs in agriculture will need to increase, and thus the water use.
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Market access (estimated travel time) in agricultural areas Market access (estimated travel time) in agricultural areas
Accessibility to food is also determined by the long-term trend in food prices (which is a different issue from price volatility). The rising trend in global food prices is likely to persist in the next decade. In the long run, however, prices will decline (OECD-FAO, 2008).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Agricultural trends, production, fertilisers, irrigation and pesticides Agricultural trends, production, fertilisers, irrigation and pesticides
Figure 8: Global trends (1960–2005) in cereal and meat production, use of fertilizer, irrigation and pesticides. (Source: Tilman, 2002; FAO, 2003; International Fertilizer Association, 2008; FAOSTAT, 2009).
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected agriculture in 2080 due to climate change Projected agriculture in 2080 due to climate change
With our climate changes, we have to adapt our ways to a new environment – in most cases warmer and possibly wetter and drier. Projections on the climate in the future provide some guidance for us, but how can we create models for how the human society reacts? This map presents a rough idea of changes in agricultural output from increased temperatures, precipitation differences and also from carbon fertilization for plants. Projecting climate is ...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in mean depth of fish catches Trends in mean depth of fish catches
Food losses in the field (between planting and harvesting) could be as high as 20–40% of the potential harvest in developing countries due to pests and pathogens (Kader, 2005). Postharvest losses vary greatly among commodities and production areas and seasons. In the United States, the losses of fresh fruits and vegetables have been estimated to range from 2% to 23%, depending on the commodity, with an overall average of about 12% losses b...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Projected land use changes Projected land use changes
A central component in preventing loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as provisioning of water, from expanding agricultural production is to limit the trade-off between economic growth and biodiversity by stimulating agricultural productivity and more efficient land use. Further enhancement of agricultural productivity (‘closing the yield gap’) is the key factor in reducing the need for land and, consequently, the rate of bio...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in world agricultural exports Trends in world agricultural exports
The availability of food within a specific country can be guaranteed in two ways: Either by food production in the country itself or by trade. The first option has been discussed extensively in the previous chapters. The second option has become more and more important (Figure 29), with increasing transport possibilities and storing capacities and the growing challenges faced by some countries in their domestic production, including becaus...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Selected drought events in Africa, 1981-1999, and livestock impacts Selected drought events in Africa, 1981-1999, and livestock impacts
Water scarcity in terms of drought or depleted groundwater could therefore have great impacts on livestock and rangelands. These interactions are also complex. While drought can directly threaten livestock, other factors that influence water availability for livestock are seasonal droughts and socio-economic changes, such as permanent settlement and occupation of seasonal pastures by people other than pastoralists, availability and quality...
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Trends in urban and rural populations, less developed regions, 1960-2030 (estimates and projections) Trends in urban and rural populations, less developed regions, 1960-2030 (estimates and projections)
According to the latest UN estimates, almost all of the world’s population growth between 2000 and 2030 will be concentrated in urban areas in developing countries (Figure 32). By 2030, almost 60% of the people in developing countries will live in cities (FAO, 2003). If present trends continue, urban population will equal rural population by around 2017.
02 Feb 2009 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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