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World population scenarios World population scenarios
Some factors (such as global population growth) will begin to decline in importance and others (distribution of people, climate change, and changes to nutrient cycles) will gain more importance in the near future.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Conversion of terrestrial biomes Conversion of terrestrial biomes
It is not possible to estimate accurately the extent of different biomes prior to significant human impact, but it is possible to determine the “potential” area of biomes based on soil and climatic conditions.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Extent of cultivated systems, 2000 Extent of cultivated systems, 2000
More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850. Cultivated systems (areas where at least 30% of the landscape is in croplands,shifting cultivation, confined livestock production, or freshwater aquaculture) now cover one quarter of Earth’s terrestrial surface.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) average annual growth, 1990–2003 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) average annual growth, 1990–2003
Average annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using 1995 official exchange rates. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Water withdrawals in 2050 Water withdrawals in 2050
Current patterns of human use of water are unsustainable. From 5% to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds longterm accessible supplies and is met through engineered water transfers or the overdraft of groundwater supplies (low to medium certainty).
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Marine, coastal, and island systems Marine, coastal, and island systems
Marine systems are the world’s oceans. For mapping purposes, the map shows ocean areas where the depth is greater than 50 meters. Global fishery catches from marine systems peaked in the late 1980s and are now declining despite increasing fishing effort.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Global production, prices, and undernourishment Global production, prices, and undernourishment
Food production more than doubled (an increase of over 160%) from 1961 to 2003. Over this period, production of cereals—the major energy component of human diets—has increased almost two and a half times, beef and sheep production increased by 40%, pork production by nearly 60%, and poultry production doubled.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Number of major wild fires by continent and decade since 1950 Number of major wild fires by continent and decade since 1950
Within industrial countries, the area burned by fires is declining but the number of major fires is increasing. In the United States, for example, the area burned has declined by more than 90% since 1930, while in Sweden the area burned annually fell from about 12,000 hectares in 1876 to about 400 hectares in 1989.
07 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Number of undernourished children projected in 2050 Number of undernourished children projected in 2050
Food security is likely to remain out of reach for many people. Child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050 (low to medium certainty) and is projected to increase in some regions in some Millennium Assessment scenarios, despite increasing food supply under all four scenarios (medium to high certainty) and more diversified diets in poor countries (low to medium certainty).
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Comparison of global river nitrogen export from natural ecosystems, agricultural systems, and sewage effluents, 1975 and 1990 Comparison of global river nitrogen export from natural ecosystems, agricultural systems, and sewage effluents, 1975 and 1990
Nutrient loading is projected to become an increasingly severe problem, particularly in developing countries. Nutrient loading already has major adverse effects on freshwater ecosystems and coastal regions in both industrial and developing countries.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Species extinction rates Species extinction rates
Comparisons with the rate at which species have disappeared from the planet over a long period of Earth’s history indicate that humans have already increased extinctions levels dramatically. Projections suggest that this rate will take another big leap due to changes over the next 50 years. The bars represent the range of estimates in each case.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Collapse of Atlantic cod stocks off the East Coast of Newfoundland in 1992 Collapse of Atlantic cod stocks off the East Coast of Newfoundland in 1992
From the late 1950s, offshore bottom trawlers began exploiting the deeper part of the stock, leading to a large catch increase and a strong decline in the underlying biomass. Internationally agreed quotas in the early 1970s and, following the declaration by Canada of an Exclusive Fishing Zone in 1977, national quota systems ultimately failed to arrest and reverse the decline.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Changes in agricultural land (pasture and cropland) Changes in agricultural land (pasture and cropland)
For all developing countries over the period 1961–99, expansion of harvested land contributed only 29% to growth in crop production versus the contribution of increases in yields, which amounted to 71%; in sub-Saharan Africa, however, yield increases accounted for only 34% of growth in production.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Urban, dryland, and polar systems Urban, dryland, and polar systems
Urban systems are built environments with a high human density. For mapping purposes, the MA uses known human settlements with a population of 5,000 or more, with boundaries delineated by observing persistent night-time lights or by inferring areal extent in the cases where such observations are absent.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Changes in economic structure for selected countries Changes in economic structure for selected countries
While traditional natural resource sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are still important in industrial-country economies, the relative economic and political significance of other sectors has grown as a result of the ongoing transition from agricultural to industrial and service economies.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Estimated global marine fish catch, 1950 -2001 Estimated global marine fish catch, 1950 -2001
Fishing production dramatically increase through the century peaking in late 1980s. At this time there were major declines in several fish populations in different areas of the world. The catch reported by governments is in some cases adjusted to correct for likely errors in data.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) average annual growth, 1990–2003 Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) average annual growth, 1990–2003
Average annual percentage growth rate of GDP per capita at market prices based on constant local currency. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using 1995 official exchange rates. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Local adaptations of Millenium Assessment (MA) conceptual framework Local adaptations of Millenium Assessment (MA) conceptual framework
The MA framework was applied in a wide range of assessments at multiple scales. Particularly for the more local assessments, the framework needed to be adapted to better reflect the needs and concerns of local communities.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment conceptual framework Millennium Ecosystem Assessment conceptual framework
International demand for timber may lead to a regional loss of forest cover, which increases flood magnitude along a local stretch of a river. Similarly, the interactions can take place across different time scales. Actions can be taken either to respond to negative changes or to enhance positive changes at almost all points in this framework.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Reactive nitrogen on earth by human activity, with projection to 2050 Reactive nitrogen on earth by human activity, with projection to 2050
The range of the natural rate of bacterial nitrogen fixation in natural terrestrial ecosystems (excluding fixation in agroecosystems) is shown for comparison. Human activity now produces approximately as much reactive nitrogen as natural processes do on the continents.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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