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Simulated projections for Polar cod distribution with global warming

Year: 2010 Author: Hugo Ahlenius, GRID-Arendal & CAFF
Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) was found to be sensitive to the warming scenarios and the model predicted that it would be extirpated in most of its range even under the milder warming scenario. This is due to its occurrence in the Arctic Ocean, which largely precludes it from moving northwards. Polar cod was predicted to be extirpated around Greenland and its abundance was largely reduced in other parts of the Arctic Ocean after 30 years of hypothetical warming. Simulated changes in distribution of Polar cod after 1 year (upper left), 10 years (upper right), 20 years (lower left) and 30 years (lower right) under hypothetical scenarios of ocean warming (scenario 1) and retreating sea ice edge at a rate of 5 km per year. Polar cod is extirpated from most of its range in 30 years.
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