Using this graphic and referring to it is encouraged, and please use it in presentations, web pages, newspapers, blogs and reports.
For any form of publication, please include the link to this page and site the following: CAFF. 2010. Arctic Biodiversity Trends: Selected indicators of change
Cheung, W.W.L., Lam, V.W.Y. & Pauly, D. (eds.) 2008. Modeling present and climate-shifted distribution of marine fishes and invertebrates. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 16(3).72 pp.
Uploaded on Tuesday 21 Feb 2012
Simulated projections for Polar cod distribution with global warming
Hugo Ahlenius, GRID-Arendal & CAFF
Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) was found to be sensitive to the warming scenarios and the model predicted that it would be extirpated in most of its range even under the milder warming scenario. This is due to its occurrence in the Arctic Ocean, which largely precludes it from moving northwards. Polar cod was predicted to be extirpated around Greenland and its abundance was largely reduced in other parts of the Arctic Ocean after 30 years of hypothetical warming. Simulated changes in distribution of Polar cod after 1 year (upper left), 10 years (upper right), 20 years (lower left) and 30 years (lower right) under hypothetical scenarios of ocean warming (scenario 1) and retreating sea ice edge at a rate of 5 km per year. Polar cod is extirpated from most of its range in 30 years.