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For any form of publication, please include the link to this page and give the cartographer/designer credit (in this case Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal)
Climate change 1995, Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses, contribution of working group 2 to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, UNEP and WMO, Cambridge press university, 1996; IPCC, Climate change 1994: radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios, 1995
Uploaded on Wednesday 22 Feb 2012
Scenarios of sea level rise, now - 2100
Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Using the IS92 emission scenarios, projected global mean sea level increases relative to 1990 were calculated up to 2100. Taking into account the ranges in the estimate of climate sensitivity and ice melt parameters, and the full set of IS92 emission scenarios, the models project an increase in global mean sea level of between 13 and 94 cm.
During the fist half of the next century, the choice of emission scenario has relatively little effect on the projected sea level rise due to the large thermal inertia of the ocean-ice-atmosphere climate system, but has increasingly larger effects in the later part of the next century. In addition, because of the thermal inertia of the oceans, sea level would continue to rise for many centuries beyond 2100 even if concentrations of greenhouse gases were stabilized at that time.