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Uploaded on Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 by GRID-Arendal

Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and surface temperature projections

Year: 2010 Author: Nieves López Izquierdo, Associate Consultant UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Climate change manifests itself primarily through a gradual increase in the average temperatures of the earth’s surface, alterations in precipitation patterns, changes in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme climatic events, a slow but significant reduction in the cryosphere (including glaciers) and a rise in sea levels. Available scientific evidence associates the phenomenon of climate change with increased concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting principally from greater use of fossil fuels, changes in land use, agricultural activities, and solid waste disposal methods. Based on available climate change science, six possible climate change scenarios for the future Latina American and Caribbean climate has been developed. Scenario A1 assumes rapid demographic and economic growth, accompanied by the introduction of new and more efficient technologies; A1F1 is based on intensive use of fossil fuels; A1T presupposes that non-fossil-fuel energy will predominate; A1B assumes a balanced use of all types of energy sources; and A2 envisages lower economic growth, less globalization, and high and sustained demographic growth. Scenarios B1 and B2, for their part, include some mitigation of emissions through more efficient use of energy and improved technologies (B1), and more localized solutions (B2).
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