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Uploaded on Tuesday 21 Feb 2012
Emissions and energy scenarios by source
Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Despite the Kyoto protocol and increased concern over the consequences of climate change, world wide emissions of CO2 continues to grow. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) world total CO2 emissions will increase by 62% from 2002 – 2030. More than two-thirds of the increase will come from developing countries. They will overtake the OECD as the leading contributor to global emissions early in the 2020s. Despite the strong increase in emissions in developing countries, both the OECD and the transition economies will still have far higher per capita emissions in 2030. Energy-related CO2 emissions from Annex 1 OECD countries are projected to be 30 % above the Kyoto target for these countries in 2010, while emissions from Annex 1 transition economies will be 25 % below target. In OECD Europe, use of gas will contribute more to global warming than coal in 2020. Use of oil will still be the biggest contributor.