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'Climate Change 2001. Synthesis Report' p.7 [IPCC]
Uploaded on Tuesday 21 Feb 2012
Comparison between modeled temperature rise and observations of temperature since 1860
Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Natural forcing (solar variation and volcanic activity) alone cannot explain the recent global temperature increase. This graphic shows the temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) that were expected to occur due to natural forcing only, from the year 1850 to the year 2000, according to climate models, and the actual anomalies that have occurred. The graphic also shows the expected and actual anomalies due to anthropogenic (human-caused) factors only (anomalies due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols). Finally, the graphic shows the expected and actual temperature anomalies that are due to natural and anthropogenic forcing combined.