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Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentMillennium Ecosystem Assessment
Since the inception of global assessments on ozone depletion and climate change, the global policy process has been better informed, and decision-makers are able to take more effective and timely decisions. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment followed in the footsteps of these assessments and was designed to meet the need for information about the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being. It sought in particular to strengthen the link between scientific knowledge and decision-making.
Available online at: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/
Human population growth rates, 1990–2000, and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and biological productivity in 2000 in ecological systems Human population growth rates, 1990–2000, and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and biological productivity in 2000 in ecological systems
Millennium Assessment systems with the lowest net primary productivity and lowest GDP tended to have the highest population growth rates between 1990 and 2000. Urban, inland water, and marine systems are not included due to the somewhat arbitrary nature of determining net primary productivity of the system (urban) or population growth and GDP (freshwater and marine) for them.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Net national savings in 2001 adjusted for investments in human capital, natural resource depletion, and damage caused by pollution compared with standard net national savings measurements Net national savings in 2001 adjusted for investments in human capital, natural resource depletion, and damage caused by pollution compared with standard net national savings measurements
Positive values for national savings (expressed as a percent of gross national income) reflect a gain in wealth for a nation. Standard measures do not incorporate investments in human capital (in standard national accounting, these expenditures are treated as consumption), depletion of a variety of natural resources, or pollution damages.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Locations reported by various studies as undergoing high rates of land cover change in the past few decades Locations reported by various studies as undergoing high rates of land cover change in the past few decades
In the case of forest cover change, the studies refer to the period 1980–2000 and are based on national statistics, remote sensing, and to a limited degree expert opinion. In the case of land cover change resulting from degradation in drylands (desertification), the period is unspecified but inferred to be within the last half-century, and the major study was entirely based on expert opinion, with associated low certainty.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Contrast between contemporary and pre-disturbance transports of total nitrogen through inland aquatic systems resulting from anthropogenic acceleration of this nutrient cycle Contrast between contemporary and pre-disturbance transports of total nitrogen through inland aquatic systems resulting from anthropogenic acceleration of this nutrient cycle
While the peculiarities of individual pollutants, rivers, and governance define the specific character of water pollution, the general patterns observed for nitrogen are representative of anthropogenic changes to the transport of waterborne constituents. Elevated contemporary loadings to one part of the system (such as croplands) often reverberate to other parts of the system (to coastal zones, for example), exceeding the capacity of natural syst...
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Forest systems Forest systems
Forest systems are lands dominated by trees; they are often used for timber, fuelwood, and non-wood forest products. The map shows areas with a canopy cover of at least 40% by woody plants taller than 5 meters.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Economic benefits under alternate management practices Economic benefits under alternate management practices
In each case, the net benefits from the more sustainably managed ecosystem are greater than those from the converted ecosystem, even though the private (market) benefits would be greater from the converted ecosystem.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Total carbon market value per year Total carbon market value per year
The total value of the carbon market for 2003 topped $300 million. And, depending on international regulation, some observers project that it will increase to $10–40 billion by 2010. Markets are also being created for more diverse commodities ranging from aquifer recharge credits, renewable energy credits, wasteload allocations for point and non-point source pollutants, and mitigation credits for wetlands, biodiversity, and riparian buffer zones.
01 Oct 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Growth in number of marine species introductions Growth in number of marine species introductions
Number of new records of established non-native invertebrate and algal species reported in marine waters of North America, shown by date of first record, and number of new records of non-native marine plant species reported on the European coast, by date of first record.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Inland water and mountain systems Inland water and mountain systems
Inland water systems are permanent water bodies inland from the coastal zone and areas whose properties and use are dominated by the permanent, seasonal, or intermittent occurrence of flooded conditions. Inland waters include rivers, lakes, floodplains, reservoirs, wetlands, and inland saline systems.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Contribution of ecosystems to historical radiative forcing and current greenhouse gas emissions Contribution of ecosystems to historical radiative forcing and current greenhouse gas emissions
Radiative forcing caused by changes in atmospheric composition, alteration in land surface reflectance (albedo), and variation in the output of the sun for the year 2000 relative to conditions in 1750.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Trend in mean depth of catch since 1950 Trend in mean depth of catch since 1950
Fisheries catches increasingly originate from deep areas. Over the years due to depletion in fish stocks the fishing industry has resorted to fishing at greater depths and increasing the damage to fish stocks and the ocean floor.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
World population scenarios World population scenarios
Some factors (such as global population growth) will begin to decline in importance and others (distribution of people, climate change, and changes to nutrient cycles) will gain more importance in the near future.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Conversion of terrestrial biomes Conversion of terrestrial biomes
It is not possible to estimate accurately the extent of different biomes prior to significant human impact, but it is possible to determine the “potential” area of biomes based on soil and climatic conditions.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
3
Extent of cultivated systems, 2000 Extent of cultivated systems, 2000
More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850. Cultivated systems (areas where at least 30% of the landscape is in croplands,shifting cultivation, confined livestock production, or freshwater aquaculture) now cover one quarter of Earth’s terrestrial surface.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) average annual growth, 1990–2003 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) average annual growth, 1990–2003
Average annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using 1995 official exchange rates. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Water withdrawals in 2050 Water withdrawals in 2050
Current patterns of human use of water are unsustainable. From 5% to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds longterm accessible supplies and is met through engineered water transfers or the overdraft of groundwater supplies (low to medium certainty).
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
4
Marine, coastal, and island systems Marine, coastal, and island systems
Marine systems are the world’s oceans. For mapping purposes, the map shows ocean areas where the depth is greater than 50 meters. Global fishery catches from marine systems peaked in the late 1980s and are now declining despite increasing fishing effort.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Global production, prices, and undernourishment Global production, prices, and undernourishment
Food production more than doubled (an increase of over 160%) from 1961 to 2003. Over this period, production of cereals—the major energy component of human diets—has increased almost two and a half times, beef and sheep production increased by 40%, pork production by nearly 60%, and poultry production doubled.
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Number of major wild fires by continent and decade since 1950 Number of major wild fires by continent and decade since 1950
Within industrial countries, the area burned by fires is declining but the number of major fires is increasing. In the United States, for example, the area burned has declined by more than 90% since 1930, while in Sweden the area burned annually fell from about 12,000 hectares in 1876 to about 400 hectares in 1989.
07 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Number of undernourished children projected in 2050 Number of undernourished children projected in 2050
Food security is likely to remain out of reach for many people. Child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050 (low to medium certainty) and is projected to increase in some regions in some Millennium Assessment scenarios, despite increasing food supply under all four scenarios (medium to high certainty) and more diversified diets in poor countries (low to medium certainty).
30 Nov 2007 - by Philippe Rekacewicz, Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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