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Global Deserts OutlookGlobal Deserts Outlook
Global Deserts Outlook examines the historical context, location and extent of the world’s deserts, as well as the fragile ecologies and unique biota of deserts. The report also aims to highlight the importance of desert ecosystem services, such as crops, oil and mineral deposits and tourism, and the challenges faced by countries with desert areas face and by their populations, and provide an outlook for the future.
Relative biodiversity scenarios for deserts 2000-2050 Relative biodiversity scenarios for deserts 2000-2050
The relative species abundance, as a ratio of the biodiversity before the advent of man, is high in desert areas. The areas are relatively pristine and has seen little changes induced by human activities. Impacts are most clearly seen at the edges of deserts, in the basins of western North America, along Baja California, and in the drylands of Central Asia and the inland Far East. The graphic is using the IPCC SRES A2 experiment as a parameter.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Climate change scenarios for desert areas by 2050 Climate change scenarios for desert areas by 2050
In desert areas by 2050, the majority of the temperature increase, according to the NCAR-CCSM3 model (and the IPCC SRES A2 scenario), will occur in the Northern Sahara, western Australia and in the inland deserts of North America. The precipitation will increase closer to the equator, but with large decreases primarily in Australia.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Land cover changes in desert areas 1700,1900,2000 and 2050 Land cover changes in desert areas 1700,1900,2000 and 2050
The main land use change in desert areas has been the conversion of relatively barren drylands for agricultural needs, partially through irrigation. The conversion has historically primarily been to use the land for grazing, but the 2050 scenario suggests that small areas on the fringes of deserts will be converted to cropland. The model otherwise predicts modest changes for 2050.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Climate change scenarios for desert areas Climate change scenarios for desert areas
SRES scenarios show the period 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990, and were performed by AOGCMs. Scenarios A2 and B2 are shown as no AOGCM runs were available for the other SRES scenarios.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Human impact in desert areas 1700,2000 and 2050 Human impact in desert areas 1700,2000 and 2050
The impact of human activities on wilderness qualities has been modelled using the GLOBIO-2 model. The model uses infrastructure and settlements as proxies and measure the degree by which habitats have reduced their wilderness qualities, by fragmentation and disturbance. According to the model, huge tracts of desert areas are relatively undisturbed, the majority of highly impacted areas are in the drylands of Central Asia and North America.
06 Mar 2006 - by Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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