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Alternative Policy Study: Reducing Air Pollution in Asia and the Pacific

This study was carried out by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand, in collaboration with the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, as part of the preparation for UNEP's GEO-2000 report.

Summary

Air pollution is expected to increase considerably in most countries of the Asia-Pacific region over the next three decades. In addition, acid deposition is becoming increasingly problematic. Under business-as-usual conditions, regional emissions of sulphur dioxide are expected to increase fourfold by 2030 over those of 1990; emission of nitrogen oxides are expected to increase threefold.

Alternative scenarios focus on clean technology, increasing energy efficiency and fuel switching. Fuel switching needs to be carefully adapted to the situation in each country. When combined with other options, fuel switching could reduce the 2030 emission of sulphur oxides to below the 1990 level, and limit the increase of nitrogen oxides to 40 per cent. The study shows that the technology to reduce environmental pressures in the region to sustainable levels is actually available; however, capital will be required to make the necessary changes politically and financially feasible.

Contents

Introduction

 Table of contents

The Asia-Pacific region consists of a socially and economically heterogeneous group of five sub-regions.(1) The region hosts 66 per cent of the Earth's population and accounts for 28 per cent of world economic activity. It accounts for 26 per cent of global commercial energy consumption and depends significantly on non-commercial energy sources (World Bank 1997). Economic growth and rising energy consumption are causing increasing air pollution, particularly in many urban areas of the region.

Ambient Concentrations of Suspended Particulate Matter
and Sulphur Dioxide Emissions in Selected Asian Cities

Country

City

Suspended particulate
matter (annual mean
micrograms/m3)

Sulphur dioxide
(annual mean
micrograms/m3)

China

Beijing

(*) 370

(*) 115

India

Calcutta

(*) 393

54

Indonesia

Jakarta

(*) 271

n.a.

Japan

Tokyo

50

20

Malaysia

Kuala Lumpur

(*) 119

24

Philippines

Manila

(*) 90

34

Thailand

Bangkok

(*) 105

14


Note: (*) exceeds World Health Organisation guidelines; n.a. = not available.
Source: World Bank 1997.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), 12 of the 15 cities with the highest levels of particulate matter and 6 of the 15 with the highest levels of sulphur dioxide are in Asia. In many countries in the region, the ambient concentration levels of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and sulphur dioxide exceed WHO standards (see table right), and premature mortality and respiratory disease caused by poor air quality have been documented in 16 large metropolitan centres in the region (see table below). Exposure to harmful airborne particles is high or very high in some countries, for example China and Mongolia. Air quality is improving in South Korea and some parts of the region but is still significantly below the WHO standard. Among different environmental pollution problems, air pollution is reported to cause the greatest damage to health and loss of welfare from environmental causes in Asian countries (Hughes 1997). The air pollution problem is expected to become worse over the coming years if no action is undertaken to improve the situation.


Health Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution in Large Asian/Pacific Cities

Country

City

Population (millions)

Premature deaths (thousands)

Chronic bronchitis cases (thousand)

Respiratory symptoms (millions)

Health benefits from better air quality as a share of urban income (per cent)

China

Beijing

7.0

10.3

81

270

28

Chengdu

3.0

3.5

29

92

22

Chongqing

4.0

6.3

44

172

30

Guangzhou

3.8

2.0

16

51

10

Harbin

3.1

4.0

34

102

24

Jinan

2.5

5.0

38

135

38

Shanghai

9.0

3.8

28

105

8

Shenyang

4.0

4.9

38

129

23

Tinanjin

5.0

5.7

43

151

21

Wuhan

4.0

2.0

17

51

9

Xi'an

3.0

4.1

35

106

26

Indonesia

Jakarta

9.7

6.3

47

142

12

Korea, R. of

Seoul

11.3

2.4

24

72

4

Malaysia

Kuala Lumpur

1.5

0.3

4

11

4

Philippines

Manila

9.7

3.8

33

98

7

Thailand

Bangkok

7.5

2.8

28

82

7

Subtotal

China

48.4

51.6

403

1364

20

Other countries

39.7

15.6

136

405

7

Total

88.1

67.2

539

1769

 

Source: Hughes 1997.

It is estimated that the region emitted approximately 38 million tons of sulphur dioxide in 1990. Five countries (China, India, South Korea, Japan and Thailand) accounted for over 91 per cent of regional sulphur dioxide emission, with coal use being the dominant cause (81 per cent) of the region's total sulphur dioxide emission. Among the economic sectors, industry contributed the largest share (49 per cent) to the total emission, followed by the power sector (30 per cent) (Shrestha and others 1996). It is projected that the total sulphur dioxide emission in the region will reach 110 million tons by 2020 (Downing and others 1997).

Across a large part of Asia, the problem of acid deposition is becoming increasingly evident. Rainfall in some countries, including China, Japan and Thailand, has been measured to be ten times more acidic than unpolluted rain (Downing and others 1997). Large sections of southern and eastern China, northern and eastern India, the Korean peninsula, and northern and central Thailand are projected to receive high levels of acid deposition by the year 2020 (Downing and others 1997).

Policy options to reduce emissions of air pollutants include utilising clean technologies, fuel switching, increasing energy efficiency, and promoting non-motorised and public transport. In this study, the environmental impacts of selected alternative policy packages are analysed using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model.(2)

Air Pollution Policy Packages

 Table of contents

Policy packages and cases considered

Policy package scenarios

Cases examined

1. Business-as-usual scenario

Business-as usual: Frozen clean technology

2. Diffusion of cleaner technologies

Clean Case 1: Income-dependent introduction of clean technology

Clean Case 2: Accelerated introduction of clean technology

3. Promotion of non-motorised and public/mass transport

Transport Case 1: Transportation efficiency increase with the frozen clean technology scenario

Transport Case 2: Transportation efficiency increase with the accelerated introduction of clean technologies

4. Fuel switching

Fuel Case 1: Fuel switching with the frozen clean technology scenario

Fuel Case 2: Fuel switching with the accelerated introduction of clean technologies

5. Mixture of all three policy packages (clean technology, increased transportation efficiency and fuel switching)

Mixed Case: Accelerated introduction of clean technology, increased transportation efficiency and fuel switching

Five broad policy package scenarios are considered in this study. They are: business-as-usual; diffusion of clean technologies; promotion of non-motorised and public transport; fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements; and a mixture of all three alternative policy packages (clean technology, efficient transportation modes, and fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements). Under each policy package, a number of cases are analysed. A list of the cases is presented in the table below. Projections of energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific region under different scenarios are presented in the table below.


Primary Energy Consumption

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2050

2075

2100

Case A1 (Business-as-usual)

Pacific OECD

22.7

24.7

26.7

27.5

28.5

30.8

34.0

35.9

38.7

40.5

Asia-Pacific

44.3

56.5

71.1

87.6

105.7

149.1

201.7

272.6

361.0

454.8

Case C1 (public/mass transport)

Pacific OECD

22.7

24.7

26.7

27.5

28.5

30.8

34.0

35.9

38.7

40.5

Asia-Pacific

44.3

56.5

69.1

85.9

104.2

145.4

199.0

268.0

353.2

442.9

Case D1 (fuel switching)

Pacific OECD

22.7

24.3

27.0

27.5

28.3

30.7

33.3

36.1

40.6

42.2

Asia-Pacific

44.3

54.7

67.2

81.5

96.9

136.6

185.1

263.0

348.9

431.9

Case E1 (mixture)

Pacific OECD

22.7

24.3

25.9

26.6

27.3

29.5

32.6

34.3

38.9

40.3

Asia-Pacific

44.3

54.7

64.8

79.7

94.8

133.1

182.7

256.1

340.4

421.7

Scenario 1: Business-As-Usual

Projection of Asia-Pacific GDP per capita
and GDP growth rate

1990

2000

2010

2030

GDP per capita, thousand US$

Pacific OECD

22.73

27.39

31.34

41.28

Asia-Pacific

0.61

1.11

1.70

3.97

GDP Growth Rate, %

Pacific OECD

2.18

1.47

1.49

1.20

Asia-Pacific

7.84

5.43

5.30

2.58

The business-as-usual scenario uses the World Bank's 1994 projection on global population (World Bank 1994). The world gross domestic product (GDP) is assumed to reach US$66 700 000 million (at 1990 prices) by 2030. The disparity between GDP per capita levels in OECD and non-OECD countries would remain, but it would be reduced somewhat, from a contemporary level of 13 times to a level of 6 times in 2100. As can be seen in the table at right, GDP per capita of OECD countries in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 is projected to reach over US$41 000 while that of non-OECD countries in the region is projected to be about US$4 000. Non-OECD GDP growth rates will decrease gradually from current peaks.

Energy saving technologies are assumed in this scenario. Low plant efficiency and high system losses are chronic problems in Asian developing countries. It has been estimated that older power plants in many developing countries consume between 18 and 44 per cent more fuel per kilowatt hour of electricity produced than plants in industrialised countries (Pearson and Fouqett 1996). The thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants in China is about 29 per cent and below 30 per cent in India (TERI 1997 and CEA 1997), compared with 39 per cent in the case of OECD countries taken as a whole.

Finally, the business-as-usual scenario (frozen clean technology) assumes that pollution reduction and control technologies are fixed at 1990 levels and that technology existing in OECD countries is not transferred or introduced to developing countries. Thus, no emission mitigation from clean technology is envisaged, nor are any special legislative measures to encourage new clean technologies.

Emission Control Technologies

Sulphur Dioxide Emission Control Technologies

Reduction rate (%)

Low sulphur coal 1
Low sulphur coal 2
Low sulphur oil
Low sulphur medium distillates (0.2%S)
Low sulphur medium distillates (0.05%S)
Limestone injection
Wet flue gas desulphurisation
Regenerative flue-gas desulphurisation
Process emissions - stage 1
Process emissions - stage 2
Process emissions - stage 3

20
40
83
60
90
50
95
98
50
70
80

NOx Emission Control Technologies

Reduction rate (%)

(1) Power generation:
Combustion modification - brown coal
Combustion modification - hard coal
Combustion modification - oil & gas
Water injection-gas turbine
Selective catalytic reduction (SCR)
SCR with water injection

65
50
65
70
80
90

(2) Industrial boiler emission control:
Combustion modification - coal
Combustion modification - oil
Combustion modification - gas
Selective catalytic reduction
Combustion modification + Selective catalytic reduction

35
35
50
80
90

(3) Kilns, ovens and dryers:
Low excess air
Low NOx burner
SCR coke oven
Nitrogen injection

14
35
80
30

(4) Mobile source:

for light-duty gasoline vehicles
   Oxidation catalyst control
   3-way catalyst control
   Advanced 3-way catalyst

 


23
50
80

for light-duty gasoline trucks
   3-way catalyst control

 
73

for light-duty diesel vehicles
   Combustion modification
   NOx converter


30
80

for heavy-duty gasoline vehicles
   Low NOx control
   3-way catalyst control
   Advanced control


40
50
85

for heavy-duty diesel vehicles
   Low NOx control 1
   Low NOx control 2
   Low NOx control 3
   Low NOx control 4


23
41
60
85

for ships
   Selective catalytic reduction


80

(5) Residential and commercial emission control

Blueray burner/furnace
Pulse combuster
Catalytic combuster
Low NOx burners 1
Low NOx burners 2
Low NOx burners 3

84
47
86
40
50
60

Sources: OECD/IEA 1989. US EPA 1986. US EPA 1986. IEA 1995. IPCC 1997.

Scenario 2: Diffusion of Cleaner Technologies

Two cases are considered under this policy package: the income-dependent introduction of clean technology (Clean Case 1) and the accelerated introduction of clean technology (Clean Case 2). Under Clean Case 1 it is assumed that clean technologies will be introduced when a suitable income level is reached, and special legislation supporting the introduction of such technologies is passed. A threshold income level of US$3 500 for developing countries is used in sulphur dioxide reduction cases. Once per capita income reaches this level, clean technologies are assumed to be introduced resulting in an increasing emission reduction rate. Under Clean Case 2 (the accelerated introduction of clean technology) it is assumed that emission control technologies are introduced in 2005.

Air pollutant emissions under each of these cases are estimated; it is assumed that emission control technologies for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are introduced according to environmental Kuznetz curves. The clean technologies considered are presented in the table at right. The final estimated emission reduction rate (the maximum emission reduction rate compared to 1990 levels) achieved for sulphur dioxide emissions is 50 per cent for the residential and commercial sectors, 75 per cent for the industrial and transport sectors, and 95 per cent for the electricity sector. The final estimated emission reduction rate for nitrogen oxides is 50 per cent for the residential, commercial and transport sectors, and 80 per cent for the industrial and electricity sectors.

The starting year and the period when the final reduction rate is achieved are assumed to be different by sub-region. Reduction periods are assumed to be 50 years for OECD countries, 40 years for Russia, and 30 years for other non-OECD countries. The starting year is assumed to depend on the level of GDP per capita - US$10 000 for OECD countries, US$4 000 for Russia and US$3 500 for other non-OECD countries. The introduction of new clean technologies is assumed to be a function of increased income levels facilitating the political implementation of legislation.

Scenario 3: Promotion of Non-Motorised and Public/Mass Transport

It is assumed that energy efficiency in the transport sector will be increased by 30 per cent with the increase of public/mass transport by the year 2030. Two cases are considered under this policy package: transportation efficiency improvement with fixed technology (Transport Case 1), and transportation efficiency improvement with accelerated clean technologies (Transport Case 2). Emissions of air pollutants under each of these cases are estimated.

To estimate of the effectiveness of the policy package on emission levels two cases were compared. Under Transport Case 1, the energy demand of the transportation sector is reduced because of a shift to public/mass transport. This will affect emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides even with pollution control technologies at 1990 levels. Under Transport Case 2, the energy demand of the transportation sector is reduced (Transport Case 1) and pollution control technologies for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are introduced from 2005.

There are a number of possible options available to the transport sector for improving efficiency. They include replacing existing vehicles and technologies with efficient ones, investing in public transport, fuel switching, phasing out leaded gasoline, and adopting strict emission standards for vehicles.

The reduction of emissions of particulates and hydrocarbons could be achieved through replacing existing 2-stroke motorcycles with 4-stroke ones (Hughes 1997). In many countries in the region, the population of motorcycles is very high. On average, a motorcycle with a 4-stroke engine consumes 30 per cent less than one with a 2-stroke engine. The emission of particulate matter from a 2-stroke engine motorcycle is 1.0 gram per passenger kilometre whereas it is 0.2 grams per passenger kilometre for a 4-stroke one.

Another available option involves fuel switching from diesel to compressed natural gas (CNG). Fuel switching requires changes in engine technology. CNG appears to be a good substitute for diesel in the transport sector (TERI 1997). CNG is available in many Asian countries, (e.g., Malaysia, Indonesia and India). It can be used in buses with conversion kits. The per unit output cost of a CNG bus is not much different from that of a diesel bus, but using CNG could significantly reduce pollutant emissions. CNG is most suited for vehicles with high mileages and a restricted range of operations, such as buses and taxis. Urban areas are the natural choice for CNG operations (TERI 1997).

In terms of reducing lead pollution in the atmosphere, an option is to use unleaded gasoline instead of leaded. New vehicles with catalytic converters installed should be used and current fleets should be phased out in Asian cities over the next 15 years (Hughes 1997).

Finally, a highly effective option is to increase investment in public transport systems. Personal transport is highly energy intensive. Shifting transport modes from personal to public could save significant quantities of energy and reduce pollution levels (Kenworthy and others 1996). It can be seen that in a city where public transport is highly developed, private car ownership (represented by the number of cars per 1 000 people) is relatively low compared with cities where there is no substantial public transport system. For example, Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo have developed effective integrated transit systems which provide an alternative to personal vehicle use. There are 45 and 106 cars per 1 000 people in Hong Kong and Singapore respectively as compared to 153 and 184 in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur respectively (Kenworthy and others 1996).

Scenario 4: Fuel Switching

Two cases are analysed under this package: fuel switching with fixed clean technology (Fuel Case 1) and fuel switching with accelerated clean technology (Fuel Case 2). Under Fuel Case 1, the cost of coal is increased by the introduction of a carbon tax and the effects of fuel switching caused by these changes in the price of energy are examined assuming that no special emission control technologies are introduced. Under Fuel Case 2, the cost of coal is increased through carbon taxation and the effects of fuel switching are examined under the assumption that pollution control technologies are introduced from 2005 (this means the starting point of the environmental Kuznetz curve for emission reduction is 2005).

Scenario 5: Mixture of Policy Packages

The final policy package (Mixed Case) combines transport efficiency improvements, fuel switching and the accelerated introduction of clean technology. This involves a scenario based on the introduction of clean technology (Clean Case 2), a reduction in transportation energy demands (Transport Case 2) and fuel switching (Fuel Case 2).

Environmental Implications of Air Pollution Policies

 Table of contents

Sulphur Dioxide Emissions

Figure 1. Projected Emissions of Sulphur Dioxide
in the Asia-Pacific Region

Projected Emissions of Sulphur Dioxide in the Asia-Pacific Region

Figure 1 shows the estimated quantities of sulphur dioxide emissions in the Asia-Pacific region under the above scenarios. In the business-as-usual scenario, sulphur dioxide emissions in 2030 will be more than three times the 1990 level. As income levels increase, air pollution will receive much more attention. If we assume that pollution control technologies will be introduced once income levels (GDP per capita) reach US$3 500 and above, sulphur dioxide emissions in 2030 will be three times the 1990 level (Clean Case 1).

If accelerated clean technologies are introduced after 2005 (Clean Case 2), emission levels in 2030 will be only 6 per cent higher than in 1990. The policy option promoting the introduction of clean technologies, efficient transportation and fuel switching (Mixed Case) would reduce sulphur dioxide emissions in 2030 by 20 per cent from 1990 levels.


Nitrogen Oxide Emissions

Figure 2. Projected Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
in the Asia-Pacific Region

Projected Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides in the Asia-Pacific Region

Figure 2 shows the projected emissions level of nitrogen oxides in the Asia-Pacific region up to 2030. In the business-as-usual case emissions will be 3 times the 1990 level; if clean technologies are introduced from 2005, they will be about 1.6 times the 1990 level. In the case of the accelerated introduction of efficient transportation modes and accelerated fuel switching, emission levels of nitrogen oxides would increase by only 45 and 40 per cent respectively as compared to 1990 levels.

Suspended Particulate Matter

Figure 3: Atmospheric Concentration of Suspended Particulate Matter in 1990

Figure 3: Atmospheric Concentration of Suspended Particulate Matter in 1990


Figure 4: Atmospheric Concentration of SPM in 2050 (Business-As-Usual Case)

Figure 4: Atmospheric Concentration of SPM in 2050 (Business-As-Usual Case)

Figure 5: Atmospheric concentration of SPM in 2050 (Fuel Case 2)

Figure 5: Atmospheric concentration of SPM in 2050 (Fuel Case 2)

Figure 3 shows suspended particulate matter concentrations (with diameter less than 10 µm) throughout the region in 1990. Suspended particulate matter concentrations in China, India and ASEAN countries are relatively high. In many areas of these countries, suspended particulate matter concentration exceeds 60µg/m3 as pollution control technologies were not introduced in these countries in 1990. Since the introduction of reduction technologies in Japan suspended particulate matter concentrations in most areas of Japan are lower, though there are still some areas where concentrations are over 100 µg/m3.

Figures 4 and 5 show suspended particulate matter concentrations in different parts of the region in 2050 under the business-as-usual scenario and after the introduction of fuel switching with accelerated clean technology (Fuel Case 2). It can be seen from Figures 3 and 4 that suspended particulate matter concentrations would increase in most areas in Asia and the Pacific by 2050.

The estimated future concentration of suspended particulate matter in some cities in Asia is presented in the table below.


Estimated Concentration of SPM (µg/m3) in Some Asian Cities

Cities

Business-as-usual

Fuel Case 2

1990

2020

2050

2020

2050

Tianjin

209

227

237

223

229

Shanghai

176

189

197

185

191

Kuala Lumpur

111

129

137

123

129

Calcutta

547

626

663

617

638


Infant Mortality, Population Density, and Relative Risk

Figure 6. Infant Mortality in 1990

Figure 6. Infant Mortality in 1990

Figure 7. Infant Population Density in 2050
(Business-As-Usual case)

Figure 7. Infant Population Density in 2050 (Business-As-Usual case)

Figure 8: Increase of Relative Risk in 2050 as Compared to 1990 Levels (Business-As-Usual case)

Figure 8: Increase of Relative Risk in 2050 as Compared to 1990 Levels (Business-As-Usual case)

Figure 6 shows infant mortality in 1990. Figure 7 shows infant population density in 2050, based on world population projections (World Bank 1994).

Figure 8 shows the increase of relative risk (3) in 2050, compared with 1990 data. The relative risk is high in South and Southeast Asia as well as in large cities in China because of the increase in energy consumption without the introduction of pollution control technologies. This clearly suggests that policy packages involving the introduction of pollution reduction and control technologies and the shifting of energy be mixed to reduce infant mortality.


Conclusions

 Table of contents

It is estimated that emission levels of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in 2030 in the business-as-usual case will be about three times 1990 emission levels. Air pollution problems similar to those experienced in Japan in the 1970s have emerged in many developing Asian countries; atmospheric concentrations in some industrialised areas have already exceeded the critical level experienced in Japan in the 1970s when serious health damage was observed.

In the case of the accelerated introduction of clean technologies beginning in 2005, emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 would increase by only 6 per cent and 60 per cent respectively compared to 1990 levels. With the introduction of public mass transport systems, emission levels of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides would increase by 1.5 per cent and 45 per cent respectively compared to 1990 levels.

Considering regional energy resources and energy policies, one should consider various aspects of fuel switching. Among the various policy packages (except the mixed one), fuel switching with the accelerated introduction of clean technology is the most efficient in terms of reducing emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and suspended particulate matter. Sulphur dioxide emissions in 2030 would be reduced by 17 per cent compared to 1990 levels, while the emission of nitrogen oxides would increase by 40 per cent.

References

 Table of contents

Asian Development Bank (1997). Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenges. Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Bradon, C. and Ramankutty, R. (1993). Towards an Environmental Strategy for Asia. World Bank Discussion Papers, World Bank, Washington DC, United States

Central Electricity Authority (1997). Fourth National Power Plan 1997-2012. CEA, Government of India, New Delhi, India

Downing, R. J., Ramankutty, R. and Shah, J. (1997). Rains-Asia: An Assessment Model for Acid Deposition in Asia. World Bank, Washington DC, United States

Duangjai, I., Charles, J.J., Li, B., Long, S., Pezeshki, S., Prawiraatmadja, W., Tang, F.C., and Kangwu. (1996). Asia-Pacific Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. Energy Vol. 21, No. 11

ESCAP (1995). The State of the Environment in Asia and the Pacific 1995. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand

Foell, W.K. and Green, C.W. (1990). Acid Rain in Asia: An Economic, Energy and Emission Overview. Proceedings of the Second Annual Workshop on Acid Rain in Asia, 19-22 November, 1990. Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand

Hughes, G. (1997). Can the Environment Wait? Priority Issues for East Asia. World Bank, Washington, DC, United States

IEA (1995). World Energy Outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris, France

IEA (1995). Rains Asia, 1995. International Energy Agency, Paris, France

IEA (1996). Energy Prices and Taxes in OECD Countries. International Energy Agency, Paris, France

IPCC (1997). Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reference Manual. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Kenworthy, J.R., Newman, P.W.G., Barter, P., and Poboon, C. (1996). Is Increasing Independence Inevitable in Booming Economies?: Asian Cities in an International Context. Institute for Science and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia

OECD/IEA (1989). Energy and the Environment: Policy Overview. International Energy Agency, Paris, France

Pearson, P.J.G. and Foquett, R., (1996). Energy Efficiency, Economic Efficiency and Future CO2 Emissions from the Developing World. The Energy Journal, Vol. 17, No. 4

Shrestha, R.M., Bhattacharya, S.C., and Mala, S. (1996). Energy Use and Sulphur Dioxide Emission in Asia. Journal of Environmental Management. Vol. 46

TERI (1997). GHG Mitigation Options in the Transportation Sector. Unpublished Report, Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India

UNEP (1997). Asia-Pacific Environment Outlook. UNEP Environmental Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand

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Endnotes

 Table of contents

1. The region is divided into South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Greater Mekong sub-region, Northwest Pacific and East Asia, and Australia and the Pacific. (Return to text)

2. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) was developed by an Asian collaborative project team composed of NIES, Kyoto University of Japan, and seven research institutes of China, India, Indonesia and Korea. Regional and local air pollutants considered in AIM include sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and suspended particulate matter (SPM). The emissions of these pollutants are calculated on the basis of energy production/use processes, land use changes and industrial processes. The environmental Kuznetz curve was adopted to simulate the reduction processes of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and SPM emissions. The health impacts are also studied focusing on the increment of infant mortality rate by SPM. (Return to text)

3. Woodruff and others (1997) studied a relation between infant mortality rates and SPM concentration. They showed that when SPM increases by 10 mg/m3, relative risk increases 1.04 times (the 95% confidence level is 1.02-1.07). Here a relative risk is an index that expresses the increased risk of the group exposed to selected pollutants. Woodruff defined the relative risk as: RRi = exp(b/DPMi). (RR represents a relative risk, b is a coefficient (0.003922 for infant), DPM is increase of SPM, and i represents an area of interest.) The relation between atmospheric concentration and relative risk is estimated based on epidemiological studies. The change of infant mortality is estimated based on the change of relative risk, population projection and infant mortality in the base year. If the increase of SPM concentration is reduced by half, the resultant increase of relative risk will be almost half. (Return to text)

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