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Pressures on West Asia's limited arable lands are
driven by the ever-expanding food demands of a growing population and
expansion of other land uses, including urbanization, industrial activities,
infrastructure and tourism. In Markets First and Security First
scenarios, transfer of arable land to these sectors continues in the
absence of effective arable land protection policies. The built-up area
expands (see chart) in step with growth in population. Built environment
per person continues to grow in Markets First, with sprawling settlement
patterns. Rapid population growth and unplanned expansion lead to even
greater growth in built-up area in a Security First world. In Sustainability
First and Policy First, more rapid economic expansion is partially
offset by a tendency towards compact settlement patterns. Expansion of
built-over land in Sustainability First is the smallest among all
four scenarios.
The land that remains in agriculture is susceptible to water-induced
soil degradation (see chart below). In Policy First, implementation
of a regional food demand management strategy results in more food being
imported from other regions. This spares arable land from increased pressure
for local food production. In Sustainability First, there is slightly
more land susceptible to soil degradation than in either the Policy
First or Markets First scenarios because more arable land is
kept in production. The greatest risk is in a Security First situation,
where management is poorest and more marginal land is used.
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