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The scenarios also have important implications for the provision of basic
needs that are related to the broader environmental impacts. While global
climate change affects the availability of freshwater, growing populations
and increased economic activity, particularly in agriculture, lead to
increased demand for freshwater in most scenarios. Similarly, more people
live in areas experiencing water stress in all scenarios (see charts).
Under the Markets First and Security First scenarios, the
area affected by severe water stress increases in Meso-America and the
Caribbean, while it remains constant in South America. Nevertheless when
population growth is factored in, numbers of people living in areas with
severe water stress increase by a factor of two to three. The number of
people living in areas with severe water stress is also on the rise under
the Policy First and Sustainability First scenarios, despite
total water withdrawals staying roughly at current levels. In Policy
First circumstances, reforms in the pricing of water and shifts in
subsidies, and technological improvements have a positive effect on addressing
demands.
Similarly, the size of, and ability to meet, demands for food in the
different scenarios reflects a combination of shifts in supply and demand,
which can be influenced by social, environmental and economic policies.
Average incomes rise in all regions, contributing to a drop in the percentage
of the population that is hungry. In the Markets First scenario, the relatively
high inequality in Latin America today is moderated somewhat as regional
patterns converge towards those of the industrialized regions. Nevertheless,
the benefits of growth and narrowing income distribution are not enough
to offset the growth in population and total numbers rise. In the Policy
First scenario, a combination of relatively high growth and comparatively
equitable income distributions leads to a sharp drop in the percentage
hungry, as well as in the total. In the Security First scenario, diverging
income distributions lead to a worsening in both the percentage and the
total who are hungry in the region as a whole. In the Sustainability First
scenario, greater equity both between and within countries is reflected
in rapid economic growth and narrowing income distributions, leading to
a strong decline in both the percentage and the total who are hungry (see
charts).
| Imagine ... effects on Latin America and
the Caribbean of a profound world recession |
|
A profound economic recession starts in the industrialized world
and soon spreads around the world, destabilizing most of the leading
developing economies. The flow of capital between the developed
and developing countries changes direction as international investors
move financial assets back home or to wealthier countries. Local
capital is moved towards more attractive and safe destinations.
Serious fiscal and trade deficits force governments to implement
restrictive policies to reduce expenses and imports while encouraging
more exports. Environmental budgets are among the first to be cut
and exploitation of natural raw materials is intensified to boost
export earnings, though with little effect on employment. Social
expenditures are also cut drastically.
In the case of ...
 |
Markets First |
- Public and private sector expenditures are cut and funds reallocated
among sectors to favour exports. Overall production is significantly
reduced. Treasury officials neglect issues that they regard as
low priority, not least environmental and social programmes, and
those relating to compliance with environmental law.
- Adverse social effects include increases in poverty and inequality
and a rising flood of migrants.
- Virtually uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources runs
to extremes. The Amazon Basin and other rainforest areas are ruthlessly
exploited and invaded by migrants from depressed areas. New desertification
hotspots appear and numbers of people in areas under water stress
expand. Fishing and aquaculture thrive, heedless of environmental
impacts.
 |
Policy First |
- New policies boost production of exports and import substitutes
and raise the region's competitiveness.
- International agreements on environment and labour standards
among countries of the region are consolidated.
- Although the recession harms all sectors of the economy and
sets back environmental and social progress - especially in leastdeveloped
countries - the region is well-placed to overcome the crisis.
 |
Security First |
- Impacts of recession are most keenly felt in mega-cities. Unprecedented
levels of unemployment prompt migration from relatively urbanized
sectors of cities to the outskirts and to sites exposed to landslides,
floods and other risks. People grow increasingly vulnerable to
outbreaks of infectious diseases.
- Domestic and industrial solid waste overload becomes a major
environmental hazard.
- In rural areas, poverty and loss of environmental quality create
a vicious spiral. Land degradation intensifies and desertification
hotspots increase.
 |
Sustainability First |
- The events and aftermath of 11 September 2001, joined to the
outcomes of the Johannesburg Summit, spark awareness of antipoverty
and pro-environment imperatives and governments commit themselves
to change. By 2010, the world and the region are both firmly set
on a path towards sustainability.
The lessons
Pressure to produce exports is best directed onto activities that
are founded on sustainable production practices. Impacts of recession
on employment can be lessened, health problems can be minimized
and the tide of economic and environmental migrants can be stemmed
without resorting to destructive or exploitative practices. Even
so, it may sometimes take negative impacts caused by overexploitation
of natural resources to create the awareness that production systems
relying on them for raw materials need to be improved along more
sustainable lines.
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