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These changes in energy use, along with shifts in
fuel use, are reflected in gaseous emissions, notably of carbon dioxide
(see chart right). There are some striking differences between scenarios
and subregions. The growth in emissions is quite significant in all regions
in Markets First, with transport contributing a major share. The
economic difficulties in Security First for Eastern Europe result
in approximately the same level of emissions as in Policy First,
where more proactive policy action prompts improved energy use and a switch
to noncarbon fuels. In a Sustainability First situation, strong
policy actions and changes in lifestyles, including the willingness of
more people to shift to public transport, achieve significant reductions,
heralding a turning-point in the battle to reduce human-induced climate
change.
Land use change in Europe is affected by decisions related to spatial
planning of development and transportation policies. It is also driven
by the evolution of agricultural policy, including changes in agricultural
trade regimes and the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. In the
Markets First scenario, the built-up area grows over time in Western
Europe (see below). Elsewhere, population decline leads to a stable or
modest decrease in the total built-up area in Markets First and
throughout the region in Policy First and Sustainability First,
where already compact settlement patterns combine with lower population
growth to reduce the need for expansion of built-up areas. In Security
First, rising populations and more sprawling settlements trigger sizeable
growth of built-up areas in Western Europe but little increase in the
rest of the region.
At the same time, continued development of roads, plantations and other
human works will lead to the extension of infrastructure throughout the
region and in all scenarios, with a general increase in levels of impact
(see chart above). Even so, careful policies - including restrictions
on the siting of infrastructure - can help to lessen the effect of this
expansion. This potential is most evident in Eastern Europe. In Markets
First and Security First, rising pressures to develop resources
and infrastructure reduce remaining biodiversity. Impacts include loss
of reindeer and wolf populations and of many insects and plants adapted
to farmed conditions. To restore lost habitat, particularly where lost
agro-ecosystems and wetlands are concerned, would require Sustainability
First conditions.
These pressures play a role in determining landbased biodiversity in
the region. Europe must also contend with the effects of changing climate
conditions, including those determined by greenhouse gas emissions that
have already occurred. Overall, differences between the various scenarios
by 2032 are small, owing to the delayed effect of climatic changes over
foregoing decades. Furthermore, in the short term, the greater regional
and global reductions in sulphur oxides and other pollutants seen in Policy
First and Sustainability First actually result in faster climate
change, increasing the pressure on ecosystems. However, present-day initiatives
such as the EU's Natura 2000 take effect and pan-European networks of
protected areas and green corridors are launched to protect biodiversity
more effectively in Sustainability First and possibly in Policy
First, too. Effective action to rehabilitate former agricultural land
as additional habitats for wildlife also plays an important role. This
is reflected in the somewhat better results for the Natural Capital Index
(see chart below) in Sustainability First.
Shifts in agriculture, along with improved technologies, management practices
and shifts in crop choices reduce overall water demand in agriculture
in all scenarios other than Security First. Under the Markets
First scenario, however, economic development still leads to sharp
increases in overall water demand, especially in Eastern and Central Europe.
With these increases comes expansion of areas in the severe water stress
category. Overall demand in a Security First scenario is similar,
with the greater population by comparison with Markets First somewhat
offset by reduced economic activity.
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The situation is very different under the Policy First and Sustainability
First scenarios, where structural changes lead to reductions in water
withdrawals in all sectors across Europe. Through these continuing efforts
to save water, some of the river basins that currently experience severe
water stress, no longer do so under these scenarios. With this advance,
the number of people who live in areas with severe water stress drops
significantly. These changes are most dramatic in Sustainability First,
where declines in meat consumption augment policies, such as water pricing,
introduced in the other scenarios. Differences in the amount of wastewater
that is purified and industrial recycling of water amplify the differences
between the scenarios. These changes are reflected in the number of persons
subject to water stress in the sub-regions across the different scenarios
(see charts below). Potential problems related to water stress in Policy
First and Sustainability First are reduced by full implementation
of the Water Framework Directive and agreements regarding regional seas.
Meanwhile, these problems intensify in a Security First world,
leading to conflict over water and contamination from uncontrolled industrial
activity and the inability to deal with the legacies of former lax policies.
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