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Along with expanding infrastructure (see chart below on the left) and
climate changes, land transformations leading to fragmentation and loss
of habitats play a key role in determining the future of biodiversity.
The combined pressures result in a lowering of Natural Capital Index in
all scenarios (see chart below on the right). Strenuous efforts are made
to control the degree of fragmentation in Policy First and Sustainability
First even as the amount of land converted grows to meet the demands
of increasingly better-off populations. Even in these cases, biodiversity
loss is unavoidable in the short term, particularly from the effects of
climate change.
Although policy efforts are not quite so determined in a Markets First
world, the protection of commercially valuable natural areas and improvements
in agricultural technology provide some benefit. In a Security First
scenario, regulatory and trade mechanisms such as the Convention on
International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)
break down completely, resulting in more illegal trade in endangered species.
This setback spurs further loss of biodiversity, both directly and indirectly.
As populations of key species are driven to extremely low levels, the
ecosystems become increasingly fragile and vulnerable to slight changes
in climate and other factors. At the same time, more coercive efforts,
including the use of public and private armies, do allow for the protection
of strategic areas.
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